21 Images Tell Why Natural Gas is the Best Risk/Reward Opportunity Today
The widow maker has scared everyone away. Is this time different?
“Not only should the lonely and uncomfortable position be tolerated, it should be celebrated.”
-Howard Marks
I love extremes and outliers. It's what makes the world interesting and investing lucrative.
I’ve said that many times over the past decade.
Most recently, it was in October of last year when I said you should sell your precious metals for oil.
At the time gold, silver, and platinum were ripping to all time highs. Meanwhile, oil was $60 a barrel and everyone assumed it’d stay that way.
No one wanted to touch oil. I did.
I even went to Canada to investigate their oil and gas industry. It was a great, freezing trip.
Since then, metals have retreated and oil is now over $100 a barrel.
Selling your metals for oil was a great trade.
Now there’s a new one.
Check out this chart:
This is a 35 year chart showing the correlation between oil and natural gas.
Oil has surged while natural gas has done… nothing.
This chart says natural gas is dirt cheap compared to oil.
Generationally cheap.
Not only that, but natural gas is hated right now.
Here are just some of the reasons why investors hate natural gas:
Natural gas is known as the ‘widow maker’ because of its extreme and unpredictable volatility.
The US is awash is natural gas.
The more you drill for oil, especially in the Permian, the more natural gas you get.
The world has far more supply than demand.
Those are all fair points that have historically been mostly correct.
But there is a difference between supply and getting the supply to market. Just go ask bottled water companies.
More importantly, there have been structural changes to the global natural gas market.
Is this time different?
Possibly.
Natural Gas & Global Macro Perspective
Two weeks ago I wrote an in depth report about how the United States is strategically entangling allies and enemies with natural gas.
I explained the bigger picture and the fine details of how this plan has been in action over the past decade.
Now, in 2026, everything looks like it’s coming to a head… and natural gas is still CHEAP.
“We’re looking at a US stock market that is literally trading at all time high valuations, during a war over energy, while one of the most important energy sources in the world is trading for fire sale prices.”
Of course there is no guarantee about where natural gas prices will go.
But from a risk/reward perspective, the current setup is extremely compelling.
Last week, I also wrote about the valuation arbitrage opportunities within the AI boom. Natural gas is, again, one of the most obvious benefactors.
Below you’ll see 20 visualizations to drive this opportunity home.
Short of banging my fist on the table, like I did with platinum and oil, there’s not much more I can say about this opportunity.
You decide…
The Natural Gas Opportunity in Images
Over 40% of US electricity generation comes from natural gas.
The narrative says that is going to change, as renewables take over.
The data says something different:
Electricity load in the US is increasing.
And so is natural gas consumption.
Wait until you see what happens when the US starts to re-industrialize and hundreds of new data centers come online.
The demand is going to explode by 2030, and beyond.
That’s because HUNDREDS of gigawatts are going to be in demand in the coming years, which will consume tens of BILLIONS of cubic feet of natural gas PER DAY.
And that’s just in the US.
Over in Europe, and other parts of the world that rely on imported US natural gas, demand is set to skyrocket.
The US is already the global powerhouse when it comes to exporting LNG.
That domination is only set to increase.
The US will export LNG everywhere, including the Caribbean.
And the domination is set to DOUBLE.
The contracts have already been signed.
This is happening.
But the demand will still be there.
Especially since the global natural gas market has changed significantly in 2026.
Conflict in the Middle East has positioned US natural gas exports to be in extreme demand.
Demand that seems to be growing each year.
Yet natural gas prices seem to be flat, for now.
That’s despite data from around the world showing there are real shortages coming.
Storage in the EU is trending towards an all time low over the past 15 years.
While withdrawals are trending to an all time high over the past 15 years.
Meanwhile, storage in the US is getting alarmingly low as well.
If you can’t string these images together to make a story within your head, I suggest you go read about the Donroe Doctrine and the US Natural Gas Strategy.
It’s one of the most obvious trends in motion today, and the opportunity is selling for fire sale prices.
Maybe that’s why one of the world’s greatest investors, who’s quote is at the top of this post, has allocated a major portion of his fund towards the US’s largest natural gas producer.
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If you’re an accredited investor and you’re interested in my fund, where I pursue these exact opportunities, contact me here: