4 Comments
User's avatar
Phaetrix's avatar

That’s a fair way to think about it.

But concentration cuts both ways—conviction can amplify returns, or it can amplify mistakes.

The real question isn’t whether the opportunity set is uneven.

It’s whether the process for identifying “best ideas” actually holds up when the cycle turns.

Conviction matters. So does being wrong at size.

Angry White Guy's avatar

In converting to cash, you are describing "optionality." The editorial bias of self-directed financial newsletters is "take action," usually on the long side. Sitting on your hands, conserving cash, is boring; it also requires patience and discipline in an environment where AI, Tesla, Palantir, et al are "redefining the world." Everyone wants to be on the front end of the "next big thing."

Cody Shirk's avatar

Maybe the next big thing is being patient.

Oeste's avatar

It’s explained clearly and objectively, and I’d go so far as to say that even someone like James Simons or Warren has taken a few chips off the table at some point, right?