In 2006 I had spent several months outside of the US - mostly in Latin America and Asia - and then returned to Los Angeles.

I remember leaving LAX, driving down Lincoln Boulevard, thinking to myself, “Wow! It’s so clean! There’s no trash anywhere and the roads are so nice!”

To be clear, no American who has ever driven down Lincoln thinks that that road is nice. It’s congested, dirty, and chaotic. But relative to all of the countries I had just spent time in, the street looked great.

It took months of traveling in third world countries for my brain to realize how nice the US is.

What Are We Doing to Ourselves?

Yesterday, I took my daughter to a summer tutoring session at a local college library.

As we walked in the front door, my eyes were immediately drawn to a display of books that were impossible to miss.

It was basically a display of divisive ‘literature’ that someone in the library thought was important for all college students to be reading.

As I pulled out my phone to take the above picture, I gazed over to the library checkin counter. Right behind the counter was an office with a rainbow flag hanging over a Che Guevara poster.

It was the most stereotypical US educational environment I could think of.

The European Mind and the US World Cup

There’s this German guy named Freddy that is driving around the US to see a bunch of World Cup games.

He’s documenting his journey on X (you can see it here), and has become somewhat of a viral celebrity.

Basically, he’s blown away with all of the nice things that he finds in America. Free soda refills, delicious BBQ, enormous stadiums, safe roads, beautiful nature, and most importantly, incredibly friendly and giving Americans helping him with his entire journey.

It’s not just Freddy.

There are thousands of videos circulating right now that show tourists being completely amazed with how nice America is.

They are shocked to find out how warm and hospitable Americans are.

Check out this video of a South African guy who can’t believe what he’s experiencing. This guy should be given US citizenship just for this video.

Why are Americans focused on divisive doomer culture? Or is it just the media and a small minority that is spewing this negativity?

Are the vast majority of Americans hard working, positive minded, forward thinking, genuinely giving, happy people?

Yes.

You just don’t hear about them, because they don’t drive clicks.

America On Sale

US stock markets are overvalued, US government debt is unsustainable, and we have a declining cultural value system.

Sounds bad. Really bad.

But it’s a thousand times better than anything else in the world.

The only people who understand this are the ones who have lived and experienced everything else.

America definitely isn’t perfect, but we still have an incredibly bright future ahead.

Now is the time to double down on the core American opportunities that are available nowhere else in the world.

I like to say, “My heart and soul is in the California, but my brain is in Florida.”

However you put it, the Golden State is hard to fit in a box.

• The State has one of the largest economies in the world, yet they went from a $100 billion surplus in 2022 to a $14 billion deficit in 2026.

• California has one of the most cut-throat capitalist business centers in the entire world (Silicon Valley), yet Sacramento has created one of the highest taxed and regulated jurisdictions you’ll find anywhere.

• The population loves freedom and walks around barefoot in nature, yet they also vote for a nanny-like government that provides everything from free needles to drug addicts to free healthcare for illegal immigrants.

But I don’t need to tell you all of this. California’s reputation within the US, and globally, is that the State is a laughingstock and at the same time a pillar for innovation.

It’s bizarre.

The weather and geography is probably to blame. It’s just so damn beautiful there that people - both the good and bad - can’t resist eating the forbidden fruit.

California Trippin’

I just returned last night from spending 10 days in my home state. I took my kids on our semi-annual California tour, visiting all of our friends and family.

It was great. We got fun surf, ate amazing food, and enjoyed the June gloom.

The trip was also a much needed disconnect for me, as I got to step away from the computer and enjoy some amazing people watching.

I saw it all. The crackheads, the pierced-purple-heads, the hard-working blue collars, and the proverbial ‘hipster or homeless?’ jaywalkers.

Despite all of these interesting people, there was one overwhelming observation that stood out to me: They all still do normal things.

They buy food, medicine, soap, toothpaste, and some even buy toilet paper!

They talk about family problems, what the weather is going to be like, and argue about what to have for dinner.

During my entire trip I didn’t have one conversation about AI, data centers, or what iPhone was coming out next.

What I’m getting at is this: The world can be crazy. People can be crazy. And through all of that craziness, we often times forget about the important simple things right in front of us.

California was a great reminder for me.

Simple Stuff, On Sale

Ok, enough with the California rant, below are three ‘simple’ companies that are probably not going away in our lifetime.

There is, of course, a bear argument for each company, but I can’t see these three disappearing anytime soon.

Probably a good idea to keep these in mind… Especially when you see the valuation and yield they all have:

Pfizer

Forward P/E: 9

Yield: 7%

General Mills

Forward P/E: 10

Yield: 7%

ConAgra Brands

Forward P/E: 8

Yield: 10%

Let’s check in on these companies in five years.

I bet those crazy people in California will still be buying stuff from them!

Efficiency, consistency, real estate, innovation, and branding - supposedly those are the reasons why the world’s most valued restaurant chain has been successful.

I wouldn’t disagree with those strengths, but there is something else that has led to McDonald’s dominance more than anything else: demographics.

Feeding both baby boomers and their kids, McDonald’s has ridden the demographics wave nearly perfectly.

McDonald’s first flourished in a country with not just a growing population, but a growing consumer population.

During their rapid expansion phase, from 1970-1990, the company’s share price rose by over 65,000%!

Since 1990, has “only” returned an annualized 12%.

With over 45,000 locations around the world, McDonald’s will probably dominate for many more years to come. But, when it comes to rapid growth, the burger giant is starting to run out of markets to saturate.

Furthermore, although the company is currently attractively valued compared to the rest of the stock market, there are far better options out there.

That’s especially true when you start to look at Asia, and especially China...

China is Slowing, but Buyers are Growing

Despite all of the doom and gloom, at least from a Westerner’s perspective, there is no doubt that China is still an economic behemoth.

Although China’s GDP growth has slowed down, especially compared to growth rates of regional peers, their total GDP is still massive.

In fact, if you added up all of the Asia-Pacific economies together, they still wouldn’t be as large as China’s.

China’s slowing economic growth ignores what that growth is actually achieving: An increase in consumer spending from hundreds of millions of people.

Even with China’s population decline, total private consumption is expected to boom over the coming years.

This story of a rising consumer class is nearly identical to the United States post WWII.

And, as I showed with McDonald’s, some of the companies best situated to benefit from this consumer spending boom are restaurants that exhibit the same qualities of:

• Efficiency

• Consistency

• Real estate

• Innovation

• Branding

Before we dive into those companies, what has caused this dislocation?

Double Contrarian: China Consumer Cyclical

While one could speculate about weak consumer habits, as seen in the K-shaped economy, there is a more likely culprit: Money is chasing tech and energy due to AI fueled mania and geopolitical chaos.

The companies operating in the consumer cyclical sector appear to have relatively little upside and are simply boring.

In reality, many of these boring companies are seeing impressive, consistently growing earnings.

Then, when we look at China, the weakness within this sector is exacerbated.

China is certainly slowing down, but it’s still growing. It’s valuation is relatively cheap, and so are the companies that are profitably operating and expanding within the Asian nation.

Now let’s check out three Chinese food companies that are drastically cheaper than their US peers despite arguably better financials.

Each of these companies are virtually debt free with billions in cash just sitting there.

One of the companies has a forward P/E of 6!

A 10x in the coming years is a conservative possibility…

Read more

This is especially true when someone is trying to justify an investment thesis they currently believe in, or are trying to sell.

The backflips someone will go through to explain why they are correct is often times laughable (I’ve been guilty of this plenty of times).

That’s one of the reasons why novice and expert investors have long respected the quotable wisdom that has come from Buffet and Munger.

Their overall investing strategy is quite simple: buy value based companies that you can understand for the long term and stay patient.

Warren’s most recent explanation for why Berkshire is holding so much cash is equally as simple: despite the recent market pull back, things are still expensive.

This sentiment, at least for the past year, has been in direct opposition with the general market who have been entrenched in the ‘AI trade.’

It’s hard to deny the recent success of this positioning. Artificial Intelligence really is starting to disrupt many parts of our daily lives. It’s very easy to imagine how these disruptions will eventually engulf the entire world.

But recent geopolitical and market developments are pushing back on this AI narrative.

The question, at least for the short term, is which will prevail?: The virtual world, or the physical world?

And equally as important: How many complications do we need to consider to forecast what comes next?

Virtual vs. Reality

For the sake of what I’m about to lay out, let’s make two assumptions:

1. Virtual = the impacts of technology, like AI, to all things that we can’t physically touch or extract from the earth.

2. Reality = all of the everyday things that our bodies physically come into contact with, including the materials that are pulled out of the earth to build our societies.

I don’t think anyone would disagree about the success the virtual world has seen over the past several decades. A mind-boggling amount of value has been built in the virtual world which has created enormous benefits for humanity, and investors.

But the success of the virtual world has mostly come at a huge expense for the real world.

Energy, agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and all kinds of physical world sectors have been ignored and starved of capital over the past decade.

Their capex cycle of the 1900’s has appeared to pause… for now.

Tech vs. Energy

The comparison of tech and energy capex is most blatant… especially since they directly relate to each other.

Capex across tech companies continues to outpace industry projections (as seen from the above 2024 article that underestimated the below chart’s data), which investors seem to embrace.

Meanwhile, the companies that produce energy (especially natural gas) have seen an ever decreasing amount of capex.

I’ll admit that this is a bit of an apples and oranges comparison, because the correlation to oil/gas and tech isn’t 100%.

But I chose to juxtapose these two sectors because they highlight boom and bust cycles perfectly.

Keeping It Simple

Everything mentioned above does not suggest that the AI investment trend is overvalued and ready to crash.

It might be, but that’s not what I’m proposing here. (I already made a valuation argument here.)

Instead, I’m pointing out that there are hated sectors of the market that are near the trough of a capex cycle, while there are loved sectors of the market that are near the peak of their capex cycle.

The companies near the tough are trading for earnings multiples in the single digits. Their production capacity is constrained, which will eventually squeeze their product’s prices much higher.

The companies near the peak are trading for high double digit earnings multiples. Their production capacity is rapidly expanding, which will eventually bring more product to market, lowering prices.

NOTE: I’m going to be writing some shorter, easier to digest reports in the coming weeks.

If you like these shorter versions, give this article a ❤️ to let me know.

Here’s this report’s investment thesis: Data Centers ➡️ Energy ➡️ Nickel

In 2011, legendary investor Kyle Bass bought 20 million nickels for $1 million. The media considered it a novelty investment and most people laughed at his purchase.

At the time, the intrinsic value of a nickel was 6.8 cents. So, his $1 million stash of coins was really worth $1,360,000.

If he melted the coins down for their metal value, that would be an immediate 36% gain on his investment.

Not bad.

Of course it’s illegal to melt US coinage, and there are other costs associated with actually melting and storing the coins and metals.

But you get the point.

Fast forward to 2022, when the price of nickel spiked, his stash was worth $3,200,000. That’s a $2,200,000 profit over 11 years, for an annualized return of 20%.

Today in 2026 the nickel price has retreated, but a single US nickel’s melt value is still around 7.4 cents.

Is it time to start stacking nickels again?

If you think the world is going to need more energy, then yes…

What’s Nickel Used for Anyway?

We use nickel for pretty much everything.

It’s found in almost every type of metal that you touch everyday and is used in all types of industrial processes.

The category that is most interesting going forward is nickel’s use in batteries and solid oxide fuel cells.

I’ll skip batteries for now. I’ll be writing a lot more about the use cases of batteries in the near future and why they are especially interesting in the coming years.

Solid oxide fuel cells could be a huge driver for nickel consumption.

Beyond projections, the market is telling us the same thing…

Nickel Price Arbitrage

See that graphic above that shows the anode, electrolyte, cathode sandwich?

Up to 50% of the anode can be nickel.

So, for solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC’s) nickel is extremely important.

Recently, there have been two publicly traded SOFC companies that have gone parabolic: Bloom Energy and FuelCell Energy .

The chart above shows FuelCell in red and Bloom Energy in green.

The blue line is the nickel miner ETF .

Of course there are supply and demand economics that come along with nickel, which I’ll dive into soon.

Until then, consider this: Indonesia is the world’s number one producer and refiner of nickel, but a long shot. Here is the Indonesia ETF :

The last two times Indonesia was this oversold, the ETF went on to rally ~100% over the next two years.

Is this time different?

Give me a ❤️ or 🔁 if you enjoyed this.

If you’re an accredited investor and you’re interested in my fund where I pursue these exact opportunities, contact me here:

Yes, that Oppenheimer.

We got paired up by attrition.

I had several close friends scheduled to travel with me from Los Angeles to El Salvador, but they backed out a week before our flight was set to take off.

Their families didn’t feel comfortable with them traveling to one of the most dangerous places on earth.

El Salvador was a no-go location.

Just a couple months before I was scheduled to fly to the Central American country, the FBI created the MS-13 National Gang Task Force.

This was in 2004.

Our El Salvadorian welcoming party.

After my friends backed out I called Oppy, knowing that he might jump at the chance to go on a last minute surf trip.

I was desperate for a travel buddy who could share the potential risks I was facing.

Oppy got held up at security in LAX before we got on the plane. The drug dogs singled him out and he got pulled off into secondary. I’ve never seen that for leaving the US - only when you come back into the country.

I boarded the flight thinking I was going by myself.

When I landed in San Salvador, there was an all-white plane parked next to my now defunct TACA Airlines A320.

There was a stream of men walking down mobile stairs from the white US Government airplane directly to the tarmac. All of the men were dressed in street clothes, with no visible security monitoring them.

Turns out that was one of the early ICE deportation flights running in the early 2000’s, where deportees were simply dropped off in their home country… Many of those deportees would be back in the United States within a matter of months.

It was a circular game of cat and mouse.

When I finally made it through El Salvadorian customs and picked up my board bag, Oppy mysteriously appeared out of nowhere dragging his own board bag behind him.

Maybe the security at LAX figured it’d be easier to just let him go to El Salvador instead of deal with him back in the US… he was deporting himself.

This was over 20 years ago, when El Salvador was still a very dangerous place to go.

But, as any committed surfer knows, that’s usually what comes with the territory when you look for great waves.

Rock Bottom Latin America

I have repeated different varieties of my first El Salvador trip throughout the rest of Latin America over the past two decades. (But just that one with Oppy!)

Peru, Colombia, Chile, Panama, Nicaragua, Guyana, and many more…

There’s no nice way of saying it: They’re all screwed up.

I’ve been robbed by the police in Managua, extorted by jungle gorillas in Parque Tayrona, and attacked by a drunk meth addict in Pavones, to name a few encounters.

Blame it on the Spanish colonialism; or the US regime change imperialism; or the insatiable demand that fuels illicit drug production; or the never-ending attempts of different flavors of Peronism.

Three steps forward, two steps back.

It’s incredibly frustrating when you think about the potential of this region:

• Latin America is religiously homogeneous, with 90% of the population identifying as Christian.

• They have an incredible work ethic, putting in more hours than nearly every other first world nation.

• Their land is incredibly resource rich with oil, timber, copper, gold, silver, lithium, water, and every other element you can think of.

Could this part of the world finally see a turn around?

Latin America Goes Right

You may have seen the recent news about the riots going on in Bolivia.

The former socialist president, Evo Morales, is being accused of rallying protestors to disrupt the newly elected right-leaning President Rodrigo Paz Pereira.

But the story is much more complicated than that.

Leftist groups from Cuba, Mexico, Colombia, and other left leaning countries are likely aiding the Bolivian protestors in their attempts to overthrow the new leadership. It’s likely that the Chinese, Iranians, and Russians are helping their efforts.

The only country that has recently, and noticeably, changed direction is Argentina under the leadership of Javier Milei.

Meanwhile, Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua have proven what the world has known for centuries - socialism and communism just don’t work. Ever.

Then you have countries like Ecuador, Colombia, Brazil, Peru, and Chile that have gone through decades of leadership whiplash.

Here is the net result of all of this: Millions of angry people are voting for the only political system that has been proven to work - the one that all first world nations subscribe to.

Over the past couple of years Argentina, Costa Rica, Chile, Bolivia, Ecuador, Honduras, and most notably, El Salvador, have all shifted to the right.

And if this trend continues, there are going to be ENORMOUS opportunities for investors - more than there already are.

Primed for Profits

The irony of the riots going on in Bolivia right now should not be ignored.

The rioters are fighting the new government because they think the right wing leadership will exploit the people and resources of the country, leaving the people underserved and ignored.

In reality, that is what has been going on for decades under the left wing leadership that has led Bolivia to economic crisis.

Even more ironic, the rioters don’t understand that the only way that outside investors will benefit from providing capital to Bolivia is if the actual people of the country are lifted up and are successful themselves.

It’s a classic example of how emotional narratives can completely distort the rational principles of economics. Mamdani has done a fantastic job of showing how that works.

Anyway… There are several countries in Latin America that are primed for real economic booms because the populations within those countries may see incredible windfalls in the coming years.

This will mostly be happening because of rising commodity prices. These countries are rich with copper, lithium, zinc, and all of the minerals that are in demand for the build out of the global AI economy.

It helps that over 30% of gold and silver deposits are also found in Latin America.

Rising commodity prices will lift Latin American economies.

Don’t Over Think It

There are hundreds of interesting companies to invest in right now that do business throughout Latin America.

You could go after the tech names like Mercado Libre , dLocal , Nubank , StoneCo , XP , Liberty Latin America , and many others.

Or you could chase the mining and energy companies like Petrobras , Ecopetrol , YPF , or Vale .

You could make it easier on yourself and just go after the country ETF’s like , , or .

Or you can make it REALLY easy on yourself and just go after the Latin America ETF .

Literally every single one of these companies (except for a couple of the tech companies) are trading at insanely low valuations and have broken out of long term downward trends.

The early investors are already diving in head first.

And, as I mentioned last week, there are more countries starting to open up:

Where are you going to fall on the adoption curve?

Give me a ❤️ or 🔁 if you enjoyed this.

If you’re an accredited investor and you’re interested in my fund, where I pursue these exact opportunities, contact me here:

“Not only should the lonely and uncomfortable position be tolerated, it should be celebrated.”

-Howard Marks

I love extremes and outliers. It's what makes the world interesting and investing lucrative.

I’ve said that many times over the past decade.

Most recently, it was in October of last year when I said you should sell your precious metals for oil.

At the time gold, silver, and platinum were ripping to all time highs. Meanwhile, oil was $60 a barrel and everyone assumed it’d stay that way.

No one wanted to touch oil. I did.

I even went to Canada to investigate their oil and gas industry. It was a great, freezing trip.

Since then, metals have retreated and oil is now over $100 a barrel.

Selling your metals for oil was a great trade.

Now there’s a new one.

Check out this chart:

This is a 35 year chart showing the correlation between oil and natural gas.

Oil has surged while natural gas has done… nothing.

This chart says natural gas is dirt cheap compared to oil.

Generationally cheap.

Not only that, but natural gas is hated right now.

Here are just some of the reasons why investors hate natural gas:

• Natural gas is known as the ‘widow maker’ because of its extreme and unpredictable volatility.

• The US is awash is natural gas.

• The more you drill for oil, especially in the Permian, the more natural gas you get.

• The world has far more supply than demand.

Those are all fair points that have historically been mostly correct.

But there is a difference between supply and getting the supply to market. Just go ask bottled water companies.

More importantly, there have been structural changes to the global natural gas market.

Is this time different?

Possibly.

Natural Gas & Global Macro Perspective

Two weeks ago I wrote an in depth report about how the United States is strategically entangling allies and enemies with natural gas.

I explained the bigger picture and the fine details of how this plan has been in action over the past decade.

Now, in 2026, everything looks like it’s coming to a head… and natural gas is still CHEAP.

Of course there is no guarantee about where natural gas prices will go.

But from a risk/reward perspective, the current setup is extremely compelling.

Last week, I also wrote about the valuation arbitrage opportunities within the AI boom. Natural gas is, again, one of the most obvious benefactors.

Below you’ll see 20 visualizations to drive this opportunity home.

Short of banging my fist on the table, like I did with platinum and oil, there’s not much more I can say about this opportunity.

You decide…

The Natural Gas Opportunity in Images

Over 40% of US electricity generation comes from natural gas.

The narrative says that is going to change, as renewables take over.

The data says something different:

Electricity load in the US is increasing.

And so is natural gas consumption.

Wait until you see what happens when the US starts to re-industrialize and hundreds of new data centers come online.

The demand is going to explode by 2030, and beyond.

That’s because HUNDREDS of gigawatts are going to be in demand in the coming years, which will consume tens of BILLIONS of cubic feet of natural gas PER DAY.

And that’s just in the US.

Over in Europe, and other parts of the world that rely on imported US natural gas, demand is set to skyrocket.

The US is already the global powerhouse when it comes to exporting LNG.

That domination is only set to increase.

The US will export LNG everywhere, including the Caribbean.

And the domination is set to DOUBLE.

The contracts have already been signed.

This is happening.

But the demand will still be there.

Especially since the global natural gas market has changed significantly in 2026.

Conflict in the Middle East has positioned US natural gas exports to be in extreme demand.

Demand that seems to be growing each year.

Yet natural gas prices seem to be flat, for now.

That’s despite data from around the world showing there are real shortages coming.

Storage in the EU is trending towards an all time low over the past 15 years.

While withdrawals are trending to an all time high over the past 15 years.

Meanwhile, storage in the US is getting alarmingly low as well.

If you can’t string these images together to make a story within your head, I suggest you go read about the Donroe Doctrine and the US Natural Gas Strategy.

It’s one of the most obvious trends in motion today, and the opportunity is selling for fire sale prices.

Maybe that’s why one of the world’s greatest investors, who’s quote is at the top of this post, has allocated a major portion of his fund towards the US’s largest natural gas producer.

Give me a ❤️ or 🔁 if you enjoyed this.

If you’re an accredited investor and you’re interested in my fund, where I pursue these exact opportunities, contact me here:

I heard that in church a couple of weeks ago. (Don’t worry, this isn’t a church/religion post.)

That statistic is crazy. Yet, somewhat unsurprising.

Surface level interactions, like the scrolling and consumption of surface level information, seem to be rampant in today’s society.

We’re all looking for the quick hit, the dopamine spike, the immediate gratification.

Few of us are willing to spend the time to get a deeper understanding of anything, or anyone.

Does anyone do deep dives into information, or anyone, anymore?

Or do people just consume headlines and commentary from third parties, never getting to know the depth of what’s really going on?

Can This Narrative Get LOUDER?

I’m pretty good at using AI tools, compared to my peers.

But I have relatively no clue how the tech works.

I understand all of the vocabulary - data centers, tokens, LLM’s, OpenClaw, blah, blah, blah - and I understand the general big picture. I’m even fairly competent at vibe coding.

But I can’t tell you the finer details about why Anthropic is better than Gemini, or why Grok is cooler than OpenAI, or why Amazon’s $200 billion of capex is more strategic than Meta’s $130 billion.

I also can’t tell you how the circle jerk of financing between Nvidia, Oracle, AMD, etc. works.

Maybe it’s all so well thought out and sophisticated that I’m just too stupid to understand it all.

There’s a high possibility of that.

Here’s an example of what I’m talking about:

I understand what this chart is saying. I can even envision a scenario where this data center projection isn’t too outlandish.

The other megaprojects, like railroads and the highway system, were for physically stationed assets within the United States only.

So data centers, which can provide services to anywhere in the world, have a much larger TAM and their possible use cases are a bit broader. The world is also richer, even with inflation adjusted, so we can throw more money at things.

On top of all of that, everyone is saying that you just don’t understand what AI will do to the world.

It will disrupt driving, manufacturing, logistics, mining, communications - it’ll disrupt everything more than you can possibly imagine!

That’s why there’s still so much more room to run with this global AI build out. That’s why the line on that chart will continue to go straight up!

Whether that’s true or not, there’s still something big I don’t understand…

Valuations With High Expectations

Let’s start with the most obvious components of a data center: semiconductors.

For simplicity, we’ll just look at the Semiconductor ETF, instead of detailing each individual company. Here are the ETF’s holdings:

You can’t argue with the fund’s performance over the past 5 years, which has seen a 300% gain.

But its current valuation makes it one of the highest valued ETF’s on the market.

• Trailing P/E: ~50

• Forward P/E: ~40

While it’s certainly possible that the ETF constituents could grow into these earnings, it’s also possible that there’s significant downside risk if growth doesn’t keep accelerating.

Although most people only think of the costs of semiconductors inside data centers, they actually only make up ~50% of the total cost of the facility.

The rest of the costs go towards electrical power infrastructure, cooling and HVAC systems, construction, cables/fiber, and smaller miscellaneous expenses.

These could be considered the second order beneficiaries of the data center boom. As you’d expect, the top companies in each of those categories have benefitted immensely. Here are just several:

• Cooling: Trane Technologies (P/E = 36)

• Electrical: Eaton (P/E = 40)

• Construction: Emcor Group (P/E = 30)

• Cables/fiber: Corning (P/E = 100)

Arguably, the second order company valuations are even more stretched than the semiconductor companies!

With smaller margins, reliance on raw products that have volatile pricing, and one-off projects, it’s hard to see how these companies can maintain their growth.

But, let’s say they do.

Let’s assume that the next decade will see the same growth in data centers around the world. Let’s assume that trillions of dollars continue to flow into this industry.

It will all rely on raw and specialized materials, which are cheap right now…

Valuation Arbitrage

While technologies and companies will certainly change into the future, what they use to produce their products will not.

In the end, we’re all reliant on the atoms that our earth provides.

However these atoms are arranged - either naturally or synthetically - they are all extracted and gathered by companies that are mostly being ignored right now.

That’s surprising when you think about what goes into a data center:

It’s especially surprising when you think about what’s going on in the world right now: energy prices are surging, geopolitical relationships are strained, and traditional flows of global materials are coming to a grinding halt.

Meanwhile the companies that extract and bring those minerals to market are cheap!

Here are seven companies that are integral to the data center build out boom, but have mostly been ignored:

Read more

NOTE: This is one of the most important trends underway right now with an incredible risk/reward profile. Hardly anyone is talking about this. Below, you’ll learn about the broader story, see the hard data, and understand the compelling forecast that lies ahead.

As I wandered around the America House in Kyiv, I kept thinking to myself, ‘Why are my tax dollars funding this?!’

This was in 2020 - I was clearly oblivious to the bigger picture.

There were drinks, food, movies to watch, computers to use, classes to take, and more.

It was all free, and it was all really nice.

Then I learned there are two additional America Houses in Ukraine - one in Lviv and one in Odessa.

And then I learned there’s a lot more of these ‘America Houses’ around the world.

Over 700 more in 141 different countries.

Source: American Spaces

They’re technically called “American Spaces” and they are run by the US State Department.

These installations are basically on one end of the foreign influence spectrum - the soft power end.

They provide an American experience inside a foreign country, like dangling a carrot on a stick.

No one is going to say that out loud.

There will be plenty of people that will scoff at that statement and say something like, [in caveman voice] ‘Russia bad, Ukraine good, America need help more.’

What I’m about to explain here is not just about Ukraine and Russia.

Their war, as you’ll find out below, is actually a part of a much broader conflict that we’re all inadvertently a part of.

And much of it is underpinned by gas.

Natural gas.

Energy Builds Empires

Last year I found myself sitting inside the US Embassy in Georgetown, Guyana.

I had a meeting set up with the chargé d'affaires to see how they could support my possible investment into the country.

Several months prior, I had hosted an investment dinner at the historic Cara Lodge with guests from ExxonMobile, the US Embassy, and the Guyanese government.

It was clear - the Guyanese wanted our investment capital, and the US officials wanted us to make the investments happen.

While I was in the Embassy, there were all kinds of offers to help.

Assistance with importing Cessna airplanes, introductions to Guyanese government officials, and offers to meet with other US representatives working within Guyana.

The Americans wanted me to do business in Guyana.

Their motivations - as representatives of the United States government based in Guyana - were genuine and clear, but unspoken:

It’s a strategy that goes back more than a century.

The British used to be the best in the world at this strategy, then came the Americans… And now it’s the Chinese.

I explained this whole situation in depth recently:

Nearly every single society has done this at some point. The Egyptians, the Romans, the Spanish, the Portuguese, the Brits, the Germans, and on and on…

Historically, those resources and energy have meant different things.

Thousands of years ago, the resources were people and the energy was food.

Today, resources like rare earth metals have replaced much of the human capital component, while energy is more about electricity generation than food production.

And when it comes to electricity generation, there is one commodity that has become more important than any other…

Leveraging Natural Gas as a Geopolitical Tool

About two years ago - after my Ukraine trip, but before my Guyana venture - I stood in front of 50 members of a family office group in Washington D.C.

I was presenting an explanation about the domination that the US was developing in the natural gas market.

Specifically, I was explaining how the United States was making other countries reliant on US sourced natural gas.

That’s despite other countries having more natural gas reserves.

The US has achieved export superiority by making significant investments in pipelines and LNG facilities.

It’s one thing to have gas in the ground, but it’s a while ‘nother thing to get the gas out of the ground and transported around the world.

Countries with largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity in operation worldwide as of September 2025

Source: Statista

NOTE: Qatar’s past and future role is extremely important, and I will touch on that in just a moment.

This US dominance is a relatively new development over the past decade and shows no signs of stopping soon.

About 40% of these exports flow through pipelines to Canada and Mexico, while the other 60% is transported via LNG ships around the world.

What’s interesting about these exports is which countries are receiving these shipments.

Nearly every major economy in Europe has become extremely reliant on US natural gas.

It would appear that European nations are becoming more and more dependent on the United States for more than just military might.

Europe is now reliant on US energy too.

And there is one country in particular that is especially notable: Germany.

Their US LNG imports have transformed since 2022.

The same year that the Nord Stream pipeline was blown up.

In case you don’t remember what happened back in 2018, I highly suggest you watch this 1 minute video from C-SPAN here.

Source: C-SPAN

These same laughing Germans also shut down all 17 of their operating nuclear power reactors between 2011 and April 2023!

But, wait - it’s not just Germany.

There’s more!

Strategic Foreign Entanglement with US Natural Gas

Over the past century the United States has used foreign aid and foreign investment to create codependent relations with many subservient nations.

European countries pursued the same strategy several centuries before, especially throughout Africa.

This was knowns as the “Scramble for Africa” with Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom divvying up different parts of the African continent to exploit resources, labor, and trading ports.

Today, the Chinese are the most proactive with this strategy, which they call the Belt and Road Initiative, having pursued projects throughout much of Latin America and Africa. (I explained this in depth a couple weeks ago.)

Just above, I already showed you what’s going on in Europe.

Nearly every European country has dramatically increased their reliance on US sourced LNG.

Japan and South Korea

In Asia, the story is similar for Japan and South Korea.

What’s most interesting are the countries that the US has recently engaged with.

These are the countries that are obvious players in the broader geopolitical chess game:

Turkey

While this situation could be an entire article on its own, the shift for this country comes as a surprise as recently reported by the Nordic Monitor.

Even though the majority of natural gas for Turkey is supplied via pipeline from Russia, Azerbaijan, and Iran, it’s clear why the country is turning to the US for energy security.

Now making up close to 17% of it’s total natural gas imports, supplies from the US to Turkey could continue to increase in the coming years.

Side note: Turkish military operations in Syria also relate to natural gas pipelines.

Taiwan

There is an obvious reason why the US is supplying Taiwan, which I won’t dive into here.

As of last year, Taiwan received most of its LNG from Australia, Qatar, and the US. With supplies from Qatar now in question, it’s clear who could take up some of that slack.

Egypt

Considering its close proximity to the gas rich Gulf States, it may be surprising to see the dramatic increase of US LNG imports to Egypt.

In 2025, the US supplied more than 90% of Egypt’s LNG imports.

Notably, Egypt recently signed an MOU with Qatar for LNG imports. But since Qatar just declared force majeure into July, this is now an uncertainty.

Panama

Although Panama is a tiny customer, relative to other LNG consumers, this increase shows the commitment that the US has to ensuring strategic allied nations remain aligned.

Rest of the World

I only highlighted several of the notable countries above, but the list of other countries that have increased their LNG imports from the US include:

• El Salvador

• Lithuania

• Finland

• Greece

• Bangladesh

• Senegal

• Many more

How Does This Reverse Course?

In the short term, it can’t.

Within the US, over 40% of electricity is generated by natural gas, followed by nuclear (~17%), coal (~17%), and renewables (wind, solar, hydro) making up the rest.

Globally, the breakdown isn’t too different.

The US and most of the world needs natural gas.

And while there are many global regions that are rich with natural gas resources, there are few that are able to transport the gas from the ground to their final destination.

To make matters worse, the capital investments and time required to build out LNG facilities are enormous.

A small disruption in LNG supply can dramatically impact the global energy market.

And that’s exactly what just happened in Qatar, which is responsible for approximately 20% of the world’s LNG supply.

Two of Qatar LNG’s mega-trains (the large equipment that cools natural gas into liquid form for transportation) were struck by Iranian weapons, eliminating 17% of the companies production ability.

This damage, in addition to the Strait of Hormuz being closed, has destroyed Qatar’s ability to export LNG.

While it’s possible that exports could resume soon, it’s also possible that they don’t.

Beyond Qatar, there is likely damage at other natural gas facilities too, like the Habshan Complex in the UAE.

This would all put enormous strain on the global LNG market, which is already forecasted to grow dramatically from the US perspective.

And, of course, that doesn’t even take into account additional demand for the United States’ domestic needs.

Like data centers.

How to Invest in the Natural Gas Entanglement

At this point, a monkey with a dart could probably pick a winner in the natural gas industry.

That’s because almost all of the producers are dirt cheap, and the rest of the industry isn’t too bad either.

Producer names like EQT , Antero Resources , Range Resources Corp , and Expand Energy Corporation have single digit P/E valuations and can sustain operations with very low natural gas prices.

This is in stark contrast to the companies that rely on this energy, as Giacomo shared in his article so well:

And what about actual natural gas prices?

This is the more complicated part, which we will see developing over the next couple of months.

Here’s what’s going on: The US actually has a glut of natural gas, as increased oil drilling creates more supply of natural gas, especially in the Permian.

The problem is that export capacity is near tapped out. The existing LNG export facilities that are based in the US, Mexico, and Canada cannot export much more than they already are.

This creates a situation where natural gas within the United States is cheap, while other countries have to pay drastically higher costs.

“The crisis has exposed a major split in the global gas market: Import-dependent countries across Europe and Asia are scrambling for scarce supplies, but the United States - the world's largest gas producer, consumer and exporter - remains awash in fuel, with prices near 17-month lows. But ​U.S. pipelines are full and LNG export plants are at capacity, so that cheap U.S. gas cannot reach overseas buyers, creating a bifurcation much more stark than in the oil markets.” -Reuters

Venture Global and Cheniere are positioned to do very well from this situation, as they are the largest LNG companies in the US.

The problem with these two companies is that high fuel costs (for shipping) and long term contracts can limit some of their upside.

But that’s just splitting hairs.

Several years from now we’ll probably all look at this whole situation with crystal clear hindsight.

If it produces, refines, processes, ships, or somehow sells natural gas, it’s probably a buy right now.

We’re looking at a US stock market that is literally trading at all time high valuations, during a war over energy, while one of the most important energy sources in the world is trading for fire sale prices.

Just be ready for volatility - there’s a reason why natural gas investing is known as the widow maker!

If you made it all the way to here, do me a favor and drop me a ❤️ or repost 🔁 this.

These two events, which transpired on the same year in 455, symbolized both the beginning and fall of two different empires.

Were the Mayans thinking about conquering the Romans when they founded Chichen Itza? Were the Romans concerned about the threat of the Mayans while Rome was getting sacked?

Of course not.

These two different civilizations were on complete opposite sides of the world. Neither society had ever interacted with each other. They hardly knew what existed beyond their kingdom borders.

In modern times, it seems that similar scenarios are reversed.

A government change in an Asian country can impact the economy in a Latin American nation. A nickel mine disaster in Indonesia can disrupt the electric vehicle industry in Norway. The assassination of a single person; the sinking of one boat; the decisions of a tiny few - each could lead to a World War.

It’s incredible how interconnected our world has become.

In 2026, this trend of globalization seems to be reversing again, back to a world where the Mayans and Romans don’t give a rat’s ass about each other.

The Lower Case j Global Economy

There has been much written about the ‘K-shaped economy.’

This scenario is where economic outcomes diverge, with the upper class and technology sector accelerating higher, while the lower class and industrials struggle with high inflation and debt.

One of the best visualizations of this playing out in real time is the performance of the Nasdaq compared to the company Home Depot:

The divergence is stark, especially when you look at the long term correlation.

My friend Wyatt Sparks, from Sea Meadow Capital, proposed a possibly better description of what’s currently playing out: the lower case ‘j’ economy, where the dot of the ‘j’ represents the small minority of the world benefitting from rapidly appreciating tech assets.

Will that dot above the hooked ‘j’ continue to drift higher?

Or will it fall down and land in that j’s hook?

Valuing the Dot Cohort

If you asked anyone in the dot cohort, who has been the beneficiary of AI’s meteoric run, they’d probably argue that there’s much more runway ahead.

So far, they’ve been right. And they’ve put their money where their mouth is:

But like a game of musical chairs, the music has to stop at some point, right? Right?!

That’s what hedge funds may think, as most recent data shows that big players may be banking some of their big multi-year wins.

So why would some investors pile back into the market, while others (arguably the more sophisticated ones) are exiting?

Beyond valuations, which I’ll mention just below, it might be as simple as looking at the adoption curve.

Just like it takes 50% of a population to join a new trend, after that trend has peaked, investors can follow a similar path.

Conservative investors typically wait for confirmation that a specific trend is in place and established. By avoiding early trends, risk is assumedly decreased by avoiding any speculative opportunity.

That’s why specific trends tend to concentrate in a small number of opportunities, or companies, within that trend.

The late majority waits for confirmation, and then when they see the confirmation, they pile into the household names.

Of course, you as a savvy investor, sees the obvious risk here.

To make things even worse, the confirmation, which is usually quantified by past numerical appreciation, ignores valuation.

Speaking of valuations…

Never Been More Expensive

That’s quite a subheading. But it’s true, according to the (in)famous Buffett Indicator.

Statistically, the market is forecasted to return a negative 1% return over the next year.

But AI! This time is different! Money printer go brrr! Fed lowering interest rates! AI is deflationary! Peace coming to Middle East! Robotics!

Yes. Maybe that’s all true.

But so is all of the above.

And the j-shaped economy is very real for many people around the world.

What comes next, with surging energy prices yet to fully flush through the global economy, is anyone’s guess.

Despite all of this, there are still opportunities around the world. And two of them are where demographics are excellent (more on that soon)…

These floating electricity generators are a part of a fleet of oil-fired thermal power plants - both floating and land based - that account for over 80% of Cuba’s power generation.

The land based Soviet-era facilities suffer from frequent breakdowns and rely on a constant stream of (until very recently) Venezuelan oil.

The floating power stations are mostly supplied by a private Turkish company who’s mission is “to reduce energy poverty.” Something that Cuba is very familiar with.

Source: Karpowership

I last saw one of Karpowership’s projects in Guyana, as the company won a major contract to convert LNG into electricity for the fastest growing economy in the world.

Over in Cuba, who’s economy is barely alive, electricity has become a crisis since the fall of Maduro.

Desperate for oil, the US recently allowed a sanctioned Russian oil tanker to make a delivery in Cuba’s Matanzas bay for ‘humanitarian reasons.’

For obvious reasons, the US didn’t want to admit that the tanker was accompanied by a Russian nuclear submarine.

Changes A Coming

As I explained last week, the companies operating in Cuba and the opportunities available are all likely to change soon.

Similar developments will also occur in Nicaragua.

Historically, both of these countries have been very difficult to invest in for most Westerners.

Not only are most enterprises state operated and controlled (which is why they are fraught with corruption and mismanagement), the few publicly traded companies are often sanctioned and inaccessible for investors.

But that doesn’t mean that these countries don’t have enormous amounts of untapped wealth.

Cuba & Nicaragua - Riches in the Rocks

I detailed the long history that the US has had with Cuba and Nicaragua… Much of which has been a series of regime changes, subliminal influence, and actual military conflicts.

Beyond these historical events, it’s important to understand why Cuba and Nicaragua continue to be interests of major world powers.

Cuba

With a literacy rate over 99%, Cuba has a workforce primed for production. The problem is that the country has no real industry or manufacturing base for investors to easily step into.

The one exception may be in the biotech industry via BioCubaFarma. This state run company is surprisingly successful with thousands of patents issues worldwide and a wide variety of vaccines and treatments developed.

Source: BioCubaFarma

The company does accept private investment and even has an “Investment Catalog” that present different opportunities. One project shows a projected 72% IRR:

But for most Westerners participation isn’t possible due to sanctions. Still, it’s an industry to keep an eye on if Cuba opens back up to the world for investment.

Nicaragua

Although Nicaragua is the largest country in Central America (by land mass), it ranks as the lowest in terms of GDP per capita.

Side story: I was once robbed in the streets of Managua by the actual police.

Despite the poor economic situation in the country, the land is extremely rich with natural resources.

Known as the "breadbasket of Central America," it possesses the region's most fertile soil and largest freshwater reserves. But agriculture is not where the country shines the most.

Investing in Communist Transformations

I’ve already done an exhausting amount of explanations and research over the past two weeks within these two publications:

So let’s just cut to the chase and review eight publicly traded companies that could see upside from transformations within Cuba and Nicaragua…

Read more

We had taken off from a small airport outside of Managua, destined for a tiny outpost along Nicaragua’s Mosquito Coast.

After a rough landing on a dirt airstrip, we were driven north into an extremely remote part of the coastline. We eventually reached a small community of orphans that were being raised by a couple of heroic families.

Almost immediately we were overwhelmed by these orphans that wanted to play, talk, and touch our faces. They laughed at our pale complexion.

I wondered if we were some of the first white people they had interacted with?

Perhaps for these kids, we were.

But almost assuredly, just a couple of generations prior, there had been plenty of encounters with our white American faces along this forgotten part of the world.

Preparation for Failure

In April of 1961, nearly half a century before my Nicaraguan venture, over 1,400 men assembled in Retalhuleu, Guatemala. They were about to set out on a secret mission that would become one of the most infamous events in American Military history.

They were a part of Brigade 2506, named after Carlos Rafael Santana Estevez’s dog tag number. He had died in a training accident in September 1960, while working with the CIA in preparation for a mission that would eventually become Operation Mongoose.

The Brigade trained at secret camps on coffee farms near Retalhuleu. In the immediate area, US military engineers refurbished a local airstrip which they code named “Rayo.”

Eventually, these men would fly from Rayo to another airstrip, just outside of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, nearby where I would visit 45 years later.

Puppet Master Addiction

Just eight years before Brigade 2506 started training for their secret mission, their intended game plan had first been used in 1953.

Egged on by the British to save their foreign petroleum operations, the United States executed their first successful CIA orchestrated coup d’état in Iran.

Compared to past regime change attempts, that used enormous amounts of military resources, money, and time, this new strategy deployed in Iran was like magic.

Beyond the new techniques used by the CIA to make this all happen, none of this could of transpired without two brothers: John Foster Dulles and Allen Dulles.

John Dulles, who was the US Secretary of State, and Allen Dulles, who was the CIA Director, worked in tandem to strategize and deploy multiple clandestine regime change operations around the world.

Most them, from the brother’s perspective, were wildly successful.

In the 1950’s alone, major CIA operations took place in:

• China

• Burma

• Egypt

• Guatemala (twice)

• Iran

• Syria

• Indonesia

• Iraq

• South Vietnam

• Cuba

• Cambodia

Nicaragua and Guatemala Were Captured

Back in Puerto Cabezas, on April 14, 1961, near where I had visited in 2006, most of Brigade 2506 loaded up on six ships about to set off due North.

This logistical situation was made possible by that fact that the United States basically controlled Guatemala and Nicaragua, thanks to the Dulles Brothers.

Guatemala

After a failed coup attempt in 1952, the CIA was finally successful in overthrowing the Guatemalan government in 1954 and placed right-wing dictator Carlos Castillo Armas in charge.

Armas proceeded to lead the country in a pro-US direction, and also ensured that the United Fruit Company was able to maintain it’s profitable operations in the region.

Now a Swiss-domiciled entity known as “Chiquita Brands International,” the United Fruit Company wasn’t just a lucky beneficiary of the US takeover of Guatemala.

Both of the Dulles brothers, prior to serving in government, had worked at the firm Sullivan & Cromwell.

While there, they negotiated major land deals for the United Fruit Company in Guatemala and Honduras in the 1930s, and were major shareholders of the company.

But it wasn’t just the Dulles brothers who were incentivized to overthrow Guatemala in order for the United Fruit Company to thrive.

Multiple other influential parties had deep interests in controlling Guatemala and the entire region, which included:

• Ann Whitman: served as President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s personal secretary and was married to Edmund Whitman, who was the Director of Public Relations for United Fruit.

• Thomas Dudley Cabot: served as the Director of International Security Affairs in the US State Department under Eisenhower, and had previously served as the President of United Fruit.

• John Moors Cabot: served as the Assistant Secretary of State for Inter-American Affairs, was brother to Thomas Dudley Cabot, and a major shareholder in United Fruit.

• Walter Bedell Smith: served as the Undersecretary of State (and previously as Director of the CIA), and actively pursued an executive position at United Fruit, eventually joining its Board of Directors after leaving government service.

• Sinclair Weeks: served as Eisenhower’s Secretary of Commerce and had ties to the company as a Director of the First National Bank of Boston, which served as United Fruit’s primary financial institution.

Believe it or not, the list goes much longer than that.

United Fruit’s rebranding to Chiquita hasn’t eliminated their ‘resourceful’ ways of doing business, as the company was recently found responsible in 2024, in a West Palm Beach courthouse, for the killings of eight family members. The event related to Chiquita paying off local narco-terrorists in exchange for protection of their agricultural operations. The lawsuit marked the first time that a U.S. federal jury has found an American corporation responsible for financing human rights violations in foreign countries. -HRR

Nicaragua

Over in Nicaragua, where Brigade 2506 was loaded up, a similar story had unfolded decades before.

During the Banana Wars, the US occupied Nicaragua from 1912 until 1933, which included varying degrees of conflict and influence.

The US did this by organizing, arming, and training the Nicaraguan National Guard as a force to maintain order after the US departure.

Of course, the US also put a favorable person in charge - Anastasio Somoza García.

Somoza spoke perfect English and had gone to school in the US, making him a favorable ally.

The Samoza family eventually went on to rule Nicaragua for the next 43 years…

Plenty of time for the US to use Nicaragua as a jumping off point for their next regime installment.

Voyage to Playa Giron

Leaving the Puerto Cabezas dock on April 14, 1961, Brigade 2506 was now underway aboard several ships to their final destination - an island who’s existence and recent transformation symbolized an immediate and imminent threat to the United States.

Source: BPB

While the flotilla of WWII era water craft pushed forward, the CIA arranged for eight B-26 bombers to attack Cuban airfields.

This bombing campaign, the CIA assumed, would prevent any Cuban aircraft from responding to the impending invasion that was about to happen.

It would take two more days after the airstrips were bombed for the ships to reach Playa Giron, and the Bay of Pigs.

This left 48 hours for the Cubans to prepare.

What came next, on April 17th, was a complete disaster.

Ships sank, planes shot out of the sky, lives lost, and a total failed military landing operation was all that was left.

The post-mortem analysis of the entire event is brutal. A series of miscalculations, inaccurate assumptions, bad intel, and some bad luck all added up to a huge SNAFU.

After the failed invasion, the fingers began to point everywhere. Internally, within the US Government, there were all sorts of disagreements about where the blame should fall. To this day, there are still major issues that haven’t been settled.

The Monroe Doctrine’s Original Intent

Looking back at the failed US invasion of Cuba, it’s tempting to scream out loud, WHAT WERE THEY THINKING?!

We’d have to review what the Monroe Doctrine is all about and why it was extremely relevant - at least in theory - during much of the first half of the 20th century.

Originally shared by President Monroe during his State of the Union address in December of 1823, he proposed that any foreign interference in the Western Hemisphere was a direct threat against the United States.

While it may sound extreme today, imagine the thinking of the government and the people of the US during the early 1800’s…

America was a new found country that was literally built by people who were escaping Europe, and other parts of the world, in search of a better life.

The idea that other world power influences could, and would eventually creep into the US hemisphere was terrifying, and not completely unfounded.

And there were other instances throughout the 1800’s which solidified the Monroe Doctrine in American society, such as:

• Spain: as the former colonial ruler of most of Latin America, and just two years prior to Monroe’s speech, Spain attempted several take-overs, such as the 1829 expedition to Mexico (which failed), annexation of the Dominican Republic (1861–1865), and also fought the Chincha Islands War against Peru and Chile (1864–1866).

• France: participated in the 1838–1850 Río de la Plata blockade against Argentina. They were also involved in the Second French Intervention in Mexico (1862–1867), where French forces invaded and installed Austrian Archduke Maximilian as an attempt to create a French-aligned monarchy in the Americas.

• Britain: although not a direct threat, the British continued to exert economic influence through trade, investment, and loans in Argentina, Brazil, and Chile. The Brits also had territorial claims in the Caribbean, the Falkland Islands, British Honduras (Belize), the Mosquito Coast in Nicaragua, and British Guiana.

From the US perspective, all of these countries and their colonization attempts were threats to the exact way of life that United States were so against.

It’s why the US had taken an isolationist approach during this time period, to avoid all of the entanglements which plagued much of the world - especially Europe.

The German Influence

Depending on where you sit in the world, your education is likely extremely biased towards the defense of your home country.

It’s only normal to position historical events to fit into the context of the world view and social standards that your community abides by.

From a US point of view, when we think of Germany’s history over the past century, it’s almost exclusively contained within the WWI and WWII timeframe.

The Ypiranga Incident

In April of 1914, a German steam powered cargo liner arrived at the Mexican port of Veracruz to unload a large delivery of ammunition, rifles, and machine guns.

The supplies were being delivered for the Mexican Revolution, which the US was trying to stop by placing Mexico under an arms embargo.

From the US perspective, the war waging in Mexico was spilling across the border and destabilizing the Southwestern US territories in California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas.

The US attempted to stop the unloading of the cargo in the port of Veracruz, but the Ypiranga ended up going to a different port to unload.

This incident is notable because this was the first direct run-in that the US had with Germany in the Western Hemisphere, and is even more interesting considering that Germany entered into World Word I just a couple of months later in August of 1914.

The Zimmermann Telegram

Three years after the Ypiranga incident, while both the Mexican Revolution and WWI were raging, the United States was still sitting on the sidelines.

Then, on January 17, 1917, the German Foreign Office sent an encrypted telegram to Mexico which proposed that they join in the World War together.

In exchange for the Mexican’s cooperation, Germany would assist Mexico in getting back the states of Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas if the US entered the World War.

The telegram ended up getting intercepted by British Intelligence, who shared the information with the United States.

Then, on March 3, 1917, German State Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Arthur Zimmermann, publicly admitted that the telegram as authentic.

The United States declared war on Germany the next month in April of 1917.

Germany Wanted the US to Fight Mexico

It wasn’t just the Zimmermann Telegram that brought the US into World War I.

Germany was incentivized to entangle the US in a war with its Southern neighbor so the Germans could continue their global expansion unabated.

On multiple occasions, prior to the US entering WWI, the Germans tried to weaken the US:

• Most people think about the 128 Americans that were on the British ship Lusitania that was sunk by German u-boats. However, there were many other actual US vessels that were attacked and sunk by the Germans prior to the US entering WWI, which included the SS William P. Frye, the SS Gulflight, the SS Housatonic, the SS Lyman M. Law, the SS City of Memphis, the SS Illinois, the SS Healdton, the SS Aztec, and the SS Algonquin.

• German Imperial Navy junior officer, Lothar Witzke, claimed responsibility for the March 1917 munitions explosion at the Mare Island Naval Shipyard and for the July 1916 Black Tom explosion in New Jersey. Both were equivalent to modern day terrorist attacks on domestic soil.

• Franz von Rintelen, who was a German Naval Intelligence officer, gave Victoriano Huerta $12 million. Huerta, who was a former President (dictator) of Mexico, was instructed to incite war with the US, because the Germans wanted the US to stop sending munitions to the Allies in Europe.

• German military officers were known to be aiding anti-American Mexican rebel groups, on the ground, during the Mexican Revolution.

These are just the incidents that we know of. There are likely many more stories lost to history that both the US and Germany would rather not dig up.

China is Using Germany’s Playbook

The list of ways that the Chinese are weakening the US would dwarf the list above.

The difference is that the methods and tactics used today are less about direct military engagement and more about subversive efforts that operate in gray zones.

Whether it’s fentanyl, drones, rare earth elements, government subsidies, or good old fashioned hacking campaigns, the Chinese have been slowly increasing their efforts over the past decade.

The US is Now Directly Countering China’s German Playbook

There’s no doubt that the US has been playing both offense and defense against the People’s Republic of China for many decades.

This game arguably started in 1951 during the US proxy battle with the Soviets and Chinese during the Korean War.

During this time, John Dulles proposed the First Island Chain perimeter, designed to contain China's maritime expansion in the Pacific. Since then, the Second Island Chain and other debated lines in the ocean have been drawn.

But these imaginary lines are just the tip of the iceberg as it relates to the power struggle between the US and China.

The real areas of influence, and now battle, are well underway.

The “Reverse Kissinger” Strategy

While hotly debated, and unlikely to ever be resolved, there is a viewpoint that the US views the war in Ukraine as a longterm strategic event.

If Russia is tied up fighting a war on Europe’s Eastern front, then the Chinese will have far less support during a potential China/US conflict in the Pacific.

This goes directly against the former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s proposed partnership with China. His approach was to warm up to China to drive a wedge between them and the Soviets.

But Kissinger’s strategy has clearly changed direction.

Whether it’s because of new US leadership, or because the alliance of convenience has changed, Kissinger’s original plan has reversed course.

If the US can no longer effectively separate China and Russia as a unified power, then weakening one of the powers (Russia) through a prolonged foreign war will have to do.

Ironically, China may view the war in Ukraine as favorable as well.

That’s because China and Russia are likely strengthening ties behind the scenes.

They’re increasingly relying on each other for raw materials, intelligence, and war fighting strategies as much of the world closes off to them.

Additionally, the Chinese view the war in Ukraine as tying up Western resources that may come to the aid of the US in any potential future conflict.

Venezuela’s FAFO Moment

US intervention in Venezuela is the most justifiable, considering the country creates a clear threat to the Western Hemisphere and is actively working with adversaries.

Beyond oil trade with China, Venezuela has:

• Assisted Iran with drone manufacturing and development since 2006 (using Chinese components).

• Hosted China, Russia, and Iran for military exercises.

• Currently hosting two Chinese built and operated satellite tracking facilities.

• Worked with Russia diplomatically, economically, and militarily to contest the United States from within the Western Hemisphere. Russia has threatened the deployment of nuclear-capable Russian missiles to Venezuela as recently as October 2025 and provided military advisors, air defense systems, helicopters, and fighter jets. -ISW

Investor’s Venezuelan Windfall

There were many companies that benefitted from Maduro’s recent ouster. The most obvious one, that I covered last week, was a gold mining company.

⏰ From last week:

On January 3, 2026, which was a Saturday, U.S. Special Forces captured Maduro in Caracas, Venezuela. Gold Reserve’s US OTC listing had closed the previous day at $1.68 per share.

On Monday’s market open, the share price rocketed to over $3.50, and then peaked in March at $5.58 per share, representing a 232% gain in a little over a month.

Beyond this gold miner, and many other similar companies traded on US exchanges, the actual Caracas Stock Exchange Index has absolutely mooned.

Up over 2,500% over the past year, it’s clear that investors are excited about a market opening back up to the world.

(It’s also clear that investors prefer to put their money in equities versus inflation-risked fiat currency!)

Cuba and Nicaragua - About to Find Out

Yesterday, a US DOJ flight landed in Havana, Cuba. This is the ‘sister plane’ to the flight that took Maduro from Guantanamo Bay to New York on January 3, 2026.

Source: FlightAware

Operated by the U.S. Department of Justice, and used by the FBI, this specific aircraft has been used recently during a 2023 flight to Poland (coinciding with Attorney General Merrick Garland's visit to Ukraine).

What was this trip for?

It’s probably related to something that we’re all about to find out about.

That’s especially true considering that a US Navy MQ-4C Triton surveillance drone has been doing daily laps around the island of Cuba, and Trump has dropped references about Cuba ‘being next’ multiple times in the past couple of weeks.

Meanwhile, over in Nicaragua, we’re starting to see some new developments.

Yesterday, “The United States expanded its sanctions against Nicaragua's gold sector by including relatives of President Daniel Ortega and mining companies, in an attempt to limit the government's sources of financing.” -BNA

As the Latin Times stated today, “The move signals that Nicaragua is no longer a secondary concern but part of a broader regional strategy targeting authoritarian leftist regimes.”

Preparing to Invest in Cuba and Nicaragua

As I shared last week in The Ultimate Guide to Investing in Cuba (before and after the ‘change’), there are already incredible situations revealing themselves for investors.

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Starting in the mid-1990’s Hermitage was able to transform their initial $25 million of seed capital into over $4.5 billion by investing in Russian state-owned assets that were being sold off for pennies on the dollar.

As you can probably imagine, the full story of this financial win is not without significant risk and drama. Browder ended up writing two books - Red Notice and Freezing Order - which detail the financial strategies, corruption, and even murder that unfolded during this time period.

Fast forward to 2026 and there are two more similar stories developing, with many of the profits, and tribulations, yet to be revealed.

The first story, which has miraculously fallen out of focus due to current geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, has to do with Venezuela and the United State’s dramatic capture of Maduro.

The Venezuela Parable

Literally overnight, the trajectory of Venezuela and its people immediately changed as Maduro’s ouster signaled the fall of a regime and the opening of opportunity.

Whether or not the direction of Venezuela will dramatically change in the coming years is yet to be determined, but there have already been enormous financial wins for those properly positioned.

However, unlike the story with Browder, many of these enormous profit taking events in Venezuela are very unlikely to make the news anytime soon… Or ever. That’s because those involved in making these investments are equally interested in their ability to fly under the radar as they are in the actual upside.

Just as an activist investor like Bill Ackman thrives on public exposure and shifting market sentiment, other investors succeed by pursuing the exact opposite strategy.

Despite the many unknown deals currently being structured in Venezuela, there is one public company that has already seen massive success. My good friend Swen Lorenz has written about this opportunity many times, and another friend (who shall remain nameless) is a major shareholder. I’m taking about the gold mining company Gold Reserve.

It’s story is long, complicated, and can be summed up simply by a recent company presentation:

Of course this timeline only goes until July of 2025, which was the same month the company went public on the Bermuda stock exchange. And most importantly, this was all before the capturing of Maduro.

On January 3, 2026, which was a Saturday, U.S. Special Forces captured Maduro in Caracas, Venezuela. Gold Reserve’s US OTC listing had closed the previous day at $1.68 per share.

On Monday’s market open, the share price rocketed to over $3.50, and then peaked in March at $5.58 per share, representing a 232% gain in a little over a month.

Obviously this jump in share price was pure speculation. Nothing material had changed in the company itself and investors were simply betting on the momentum fueled geopolitical event.

Or maybe not?

While it’s true that Gold Reserve didn’t discover a new gold mine overnight, it’s also true that their claims on Venezuelan territory could all of a sudden be much more exploitable. Maybe the company’s share price is still undervalued? I know that major shareholders haven’t jumped ship yet…

Anyway, you now understand how opportunities in Russia and Venezuela can uncover themselves in a matter of days, and have billions of dollars worth of profit potential for savvy and adventurous investors.

Could the same scenario be playing out in Cuba right now? Could Cuba be the next emerging market that early investors will have major windfalls from?

There is certainly a lot of chatter about the Cuban regime falling, or at least changing directions significantly. Trump has made a variety of “Cuba’s next” comments after his moves on Venezuela and Iran. Should we doubt his words and chalk Cuba up as a another TACO? Or is he serious, and is there reason to position yourself now for a new open Cuban economy?

Cuba - A Capitalist’s Dream?

To be clear, Cuba is currently a capitalist’s nightmare. There is nothing about Cuba, in its current state, that is attractive to an investor who believes in free market principles… Except for one thing: If Cuba returned to it’s pre-1959 economy, capitalist investors would be able to seize on a moment of blank slate opportunity.

They’d be able to enter a country with vast mineral and energy resources, a surprisingly advanced biotech industry, fantastic tourism potential, and most importantly, a (literally) hungry workforce that is craving opportunity.

Please note that nothing you will read below has to do with the current state of Cuba and how the country got to where it is today. You also won’t read anything about the tumultuous relationship that Cuba has had with the United States, or any other country for that matter.

Instead, I am focusing purely on investment opportunities that are currently available for investors, and investment opportunities that may soon become available if the country’s current regime is to change.

What you’ll find below is an in depth guide that explores the diverse landscape of Cuban investments as of April 2026.

Following recent reforms, including the historic decision to allow the Cuban diaspora to invest directly in private enterprises, the risk-reward profile of the island has shifted significantly.

I have organized opportunities ranking from ‘currently available with minimal risk and partial exposure’ to ‘possibly soon available with considerable risk and major exposure.’ This ranking means that the companies and opportunities listed first are generally much more liquid and widely available compared to the later part of the list.

Likewise, this listing order also indicates possible risk and reward. Investments that have less direct exposure to Cuba will have less risk, but also less possible reward. The opposite is likewise true.

Let’s dive in…

The Indirect Exposure Plays

Companies in this section could benefit from positive Cuban economic activity without having significant physical assets on the island. Generally speaking, this would mean that no positive developments in Cuba wouldn’t really effect these companies at all, while any sort of increased business activity with the island would add directly to the bottom line of these companies.

Airlines

This is the most obvious sector to possibly benefit and could be an entire investment case on it’s own. I’ll stay relatively high level here, just touching on what airlines currently do business with the island.

First, it’s important to point out that Cuba actually has a pretty busy and developed airport industry. The island has six airports that each service international flights: Havana, Varadero, Santa Clara, Cayo Coco, Camaguey, Holguin, and Santiago de Cuba.

Havana is the busiest airport and has international flights that go to the US, Mexico, Canada, Panama, Colombia, Venezuela, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Turkey, Cayman Islands, Guyana, and Angola(!).

Many of these international flights are serviced by a wide variety of airlines (Turkish Airlines, Iberia, Air France, etc.), so don’t represent a meaningful relative amount of those carriers total destinations.

Perhaps somewhat surprisingly (but not, because of proximity), it’s the US airlines that have the most daily flights to and from Cuba. Although United ( ) , Delta ( ) , JetBlue ( ) , and Southwest ( ) all fly to Cuba, it’s American Airlines ( ) that dominates the route accounting for nearly 80% of all US/Cuba travel. American operates about a dozen flights a day and flies into all six of the Cuban airports previously mentioned.

The next closest airline, operating 3-4 flights per day, is Copa Airlines ( ), which is Panama’s flagship carrier. Copa operates the primary regional airport - known as the "Hub of the Americas" - in Panama City.

Cuba does have their own airline, Cubana de Aviación S.A. or better known as ‘Cubana,’ but it’s state owned and has had all sorts of problems, as you can imagine.

Cruise Lines

Potentially offering more upside than airlines, cruise operators could benefit meaningfully in the event Cuba opens up further and relations improve with the United States.

Beyond an increase in customers, cruise lines may benefit as their clientele may prefer to rely on the infrastructure of the actual ship (i.e. power, plumbing, safety, etc.) versus land based hospitality. This is not to say that there aren’t incredible hotels and resorts in Cuba (there are, and we’ll talk about them a little later).

However, what’s most important right now in 2026, is that there are currently no publicly traded cruise lines servicing Cuba.

In the past, Royal Caribbean ( ), Carnival Corp ( ), and Norwegian Cruise Line ( ) have included Cuba as one of their destinations, but over the past several years, for a variety of reasons, they have eliminated Cuba from their itineraries.

There are some private cruise lines that have occasional stops on the island, but their schedules aren’t consistent and they’re mostly private equity backed.

In the event that Cuba’s tourism industry expands to re-incorporate cruise services, the three public companies listed above could have meaningful upside.

Consumer Brands

The situation with consumer brands that are sold in Cuba is very complicated. While there are many global brands present on the island, their operations are typically structured as joint ventures with the Cuban government or managed through third-party distributors from other countries.

That means the variety and penetration of various consumer brands are ever changing and unreliable. Still, mega-corporations like Nestle, Unilever, Coca-Cola, and Colgate are present in Cuba.

However, with a total population of about ten million, the entire country of Cuba does not make up a consumer base to significantly impact those large multi-national brands. I don’t think, even with a full opening of the country, any of those companies would have meaningful impacts.

That said, there are two industries worth mentioning because of their direct relations with iconic Cuban brands.

The first is Pernod Ricard ( $PDRDF ). I’ve mentioned this company before, as it relates to the declining alcohol industry and the possible merger this company could soon be going through. Putting that information aside, Pernod Ricard operates a 50/50 joint venture with the Cuban state-run company Cuba Ron S.A..

Cuba Ron acts as the producer and manages the entire production process within Cuba, from harvesting sugarcane to distillation and aging. Meanwhile, Pernod Ricard acts as the marketer and handles the global marketing, branding, and distribution once the product leaves the island.

Their product, Havana Club, cannot legally be distributed in the United States, but is globally available in over 125 countries.

Tobacco is the second notable industry, as Cuba has a historical dominance and reputation with cigars. As of April 2026, there are no publicly traded companies that own Cuban tobacco brands.

However, there are a wide variety of lawsuits, private equity deals, and foreign companies that are entangled with various Cuban cigar brands like Cohiba, Montecristo, and Romeo y Julieta.

I bring this topic up, because in the event of a Cuban economy opening up, there could be a variety of deals that get made, and settled, with global tobacco companies.

The Legacy Claimants (Windfall Exposure)

This is a massive topic that is extremely complicated, so I am going to keep this section somewhat high level and only touch on the major players.

In summary, there are currently about 6,000 U.S. citizens and corporations that hold federally certified claims against Cuba for billions of dollars in assets that were confiscated in the 1960s.

There are numerous lawsuits that have been going on for decades to resolve these issues, and they’ve seen more activity in 2026, as the Latin Times recently reported:

The companies listed below are just some of the more notable claimants, with the dollar amounts mostly related to their 1960’s value… Which means that today’s values, after interest and inflation could be worth FAR more.

• Cuban Electric Company: Holds the largest single claim, valued at over $267 million (original 1960 value), but is estimated to be worth more than $1 billion today.

• Exxon Mobil ( ): $71.6 million claim and recently filed a lawsuit against Cuban state entities, seeking over $1 billion in damages for seized refineries and service stations.

• Coca-Cola ( ): $27.5 million claim for nationalized bottling plants.

• Colgate-Palmolive ( ): $14.5 million claim.

The list goes on, and on, and on!

I will likely do an in depth article about this entire topic in the future, as I believe there are major opportunities here.

As an example of what I mean, let me quickly explain what happened with the Cuban Electric Company, which is the only company listed above that is not publicly traded.

Through a long series of mergers and acquisitions, the Cuban Electric Company and its claims ended up being owned by Office Depot, which until December of 2025 was publicly traded on the NASDAQ as The ODP Corporation. Atlas Holdings took ODP private for about $1 billion, which means this private equity firm owns both the operating company that runs Office Depot and OfficeMax, as well as the ~$1 billion claims against Cuba!

Although it’s nearly impossible to imagine a scenario where any of these companies get any of their funds paid out to them (for a list of reasons, which mainly relates to the fact that Cuba has no money!), there is another outcome that could be just as good, if not better.

Hypothetically, instead of any of the claimants receiving a cash payout for their claim, they could receive certain licensing, reparations, or rights that would relate to the specific claim they have outstanding.

For example, ExxonMobile is currently seeking $1 billion, which is nearly certain to not be paid. Instead, ExxonMobile could receive the drilling rights for new oil wells in the rich oil and gas fields that are on and surround the island of Cuba. This exact scenario is currently unfolding in Venezuela, albeit with the help (and threat) of the US government.

The Infrastructure & Reconstruction Plays

It’s no secret that the entire island of Cuba is crumbling. This is both in the literal and figurative sense. As the society has struggled to survive, basic infrastructure - roads, buildings, electricity, plumbing, and everything in between - has been completely neglected. Even their admittedly awesome classic cars need upgrading!

Because of the island’s close proximity to the United States, it would seem logistically obvious for US based companies to lead the charge in rebuilding Cuba. And if, or rather when, the US pushes Cuba towards a complete change of policy, it’s almost assured that part of this transition will include the participation of US firms.

For now, I’ll review just three of the possible companies that could get involved.

First is MasTec, Inc. ( ) which is a Florida-based construction giant led by Jorge Mas (who is also Chairman of the Cuban American National Foundation and a Trump supporter). It is perfectly positioned for large-scale utility and telecom rebuilding.

Despite the company’s recent parabolic performance, there is no other company that fits this opportunity better than MasTec. They can handle everything from solar, wind, and battery storage to power generation, manufacturing, and mining.

And it helps that MasTec’s leadership has direct ties to Cuba and the current US administration.

Next is Vulcan Materials ( ), which operates a massive quarry in Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, making it the logistically obvious supplier of construction materials for Cuba’s reconstruction. The company is based in Alabama and also has extensive operations throughout the entire Southern US, including Cuba’s neighbor, Florida.

Considering that Vulcan specializes in asphalt and concrete manufacturing, there could potentially be many years and billions of dollars worth of opportunity within Cuba.

The last company I’ll mention is the obvious Mexican cement giant Cemex ( ). Not only does Cemex have the scale and ability to operate in Cuba, it’s political ties and Latin relations almost ensure that they will be involved in any rebuilding of Cuba.

The Regional Proxy Plays - A Cuba ETF?

Although this section is a bit redundant, I do want to mention one recent market development that relates to getting investment exposure to Cuba.

One of the most obvious and common questions an investor asks when thinking about investing in Cuba is, “Where and what is the ticker symbol for the Cuba ETF?”

Up until July of last year, you could have invested in the Herzfeld Caribbean Basin Fund (with the ticker “CUBA”), which had a basket of stocks positioned to gain from a normalized Cuba.

However, Herzfeld changed their strategy to pursue investing in collateralized loan obligations (CLO’s), and changed their ticker to . You can read the full press release here.

I find the timing of this entire strategy change for Herzfeld to be extremely ironic, but I also sympathize with their situation. Over the past 20 years I have been in investments many times where I finally threw the towel in, only for the tides to change a year later and see my original investment thesis play out… Just after I gave up.

While I cannot speak for the Herzfeld team directly, I can only imagine the meetings that were going on prior to their strategy change and the frustrations that must have been boiling within that entire office for many, many years!

Regardless, there is no Cuba ETF to currently invest in, but there are dozens of regional proxy plays (many of which I’ve already mentioned).

The Pure-Play & Asset-Heavy Leaders (High Exposure)

There are three publicly traded companies that are positioned for significant upside when Cuba’s regime changes. Although one out of the three operates in a different industry, these three companies have the most exposure compared to everything I’ve mentioned so far - by a long shot.

Because each of these companies deserves their own deep dive, I’ll be sending out an entirely new report within the next week. Make sure you subscribe to receive it in your inbox.

Private Opportunities - MSMEs and Diaspora Investment

In the mid-1980’s Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev introduced a new political reform movement known as “Perestroika,” which is Russian for "restructuring.” The intent was to revitalize the stagnant Soviet economy by decentralizing economic controls and encouraging private business. This movement also eased state control over factories and farms.

Basically, this was the communists realizing their system didn’t work, so they implemented measures to move towards capitalism.

Cuba may be having it’s own Perestroika moment in 2026.

MIPYMES, which stands for Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises, were introduced in Cuba during September of 2021 to operate as legal entities similar to LLC’s (but with a lot more rules).

The introduction of this new legal entity marked a shift toward recognizing private property. Under this legal structure, Cubans are allowed to start businesses that employ 3 to 100 workers and operate in most sectors (food, manufacturing, tech) with the intent of filling gaps of the poorly run state economy.

Then, last month, Cuba introduced reform measures that now allows Cuban nationals living abroad to directly own and operate private businesses. These people will also be able to open dollar-denominated bank accounts and use Cuban land for farming or development.

It’s estimated that nearly 5 million Cubans have left the island (and are still alive), which means that more than half of those originally born in Cuba now live somewhere else (there is speculation that Cuba’s stated population of 10 million is much lower - possibly closer to 8 million).

These 5 million expat Cubans, according to the March 2026 reforms, are now eligible to own companies operating in Cuba.

Considering that Cubans have fantastic entrepreneurial skills, there are a couple of companies that are worth looking at…

Supermarket23, which was founded by Aníbal Quevedo, is basically the Amazon of Cuba. If you visit their website, the layout is very similar to Amazon, but their products are exactly what you’d think a struggling society would need - basic foods and supplies like pasta, crackers, canned goods, power generators, and toiletries.

Quevedo, who is Cuban-born and was the former director of Cuba’s first state e-commerce site, likely has strong ties to the Cuban government including high-ranking military officials. Point being that you should understand that the success of Supermarket23 is not as simple as it might sound.

Still, the fact that Supermarket23 is up and running is at least some proof that there is progress with entrepreneurial projects within the Cuban economy.

The second company worth mentioning is Katapulk, which is similar to Supermarket23 except for the fact that Katapulk has secured licenses to export U.S. vehicles and heavy equipment to the island.

Founded by Cuban-American Hugo Cancio, there is also speculation that he is tied in with the Cuban government which has allowed him to grow Katapulk with less friction than other competitors.

For clarity, neither of these companies are Cuban companies, meaning that they are incorporated mostly in other countries despite operating heavily within the island. There have been no purely Cuban based privately owned companies that have made any significant impact, yet (if you know of one, please send me the information).

The ‘Change’ Coming to Cuba Soon?

I’ve called whatever is coming next for Cuba the ‘change’ because I really don’t know what the next transformation will be. Will it be a complete regime overthrow? An internal government reform process? Or will there be a shooting war that will evolve into some sort of foreign (US) occupation?

If I had to guess, I’d say it’s going to be some sort of combination of the above scenarios, minus the shooting war part.

As I said in the beginning of this guide, I do not want to dive into the history of how and why Cuba ended up where it is. There is plenty of information out there that explores all of that in depth.

What I do think is happening now is a changing in the world order, mostly led by the United States and Trump. Without taking any political sides, it’s clear that Trump wants to realign many relationships that the US has historically had - both bad and good. We’ve seen it with the tariff’s, we’re seeing it with NATO, we’ve seen it with Venezuela, and we’re currently holding our breath with the whole Iran situation.

The relationship that the US has had with Cuba is easily one of the most tumultuous and regretful of all - for both sides. It’s almost impossible to imagine a scenario where Cuba is brought into the ‘US fold’ under simple and friendly terms.

However, from the US and Trump perspective, this is a must happen. Cuba must be brought under US influence, as the threat that the island poses to the United States (mostly by proximity) is far too great to just ignore.

History has shown, mostly during the Cuban missile crisis, that the ability for US adversaries to set up shop in the US’s backyard is very real.

Today, in 2026, it’s not just speculation that this could happen again… It’s already happening. The Chinese have dramatically increased their cooperation with Cuba, especially on the military front. A variety of Chinese military installations have been set up throughout the island of Cuba, allowing for all types of surveillance, training, and logistical support - all of which potentially threaten the United States.

Source: CSIS

As I’ve mentioned many times over the past several years, nearly all wars transpiring in the world right now relate in some way to the impending US and China conflict. Proxy battles are underway on the literal battlefield, in space, in financial systems, on the web, through propaganda campaigns, and in nearly every place you can imagine.

While Cuba itself does not pose a direct threat to the US, it’s the parties that use Cuba and it’s global location as a conduit that do. The US will not stand for that, which is why a ‘change’ is certain to developing for Cuba soon.

Make sure you subscribe so you can get my follow up report on the three publicly traded companies that are best positioned for significant upside when Cuba’s regime changes.

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This trend, where different industries are performing in contrast to each other, could quickly be compared to the “K-shaped economy.” But upon closer inspection you’ll find that some of the best brands in the United States, and the world, have fallen to generationally low prices.

This is not to say that there aren’t reasons. A quick explanation for globally recognized brands underperforming over the past five years can be blamed on the pandemic. While many tech companies have catapulted themselves out of the global event, other companies have stumbled and wandered around with no direction.

Some of these underperforming companies are still fighting their way out of the woke paper bag they put themselves into. Other companies are struggling to find footing with newer demographic trends. And some companies have experienced a never ending series of internal missteps.

Regardless of the ‘why,’ the result is that some of the world’s best known brands are on sale right now.

Betting on Brands

It would be foolish to assume that a major household brand name will never disappear. There are plenty of examples of companies that have died a slow death because of their inability to innovate (Kodak, Blockbuster, PanAm, Oldsmobile, etc.).

However, there are other companies that are still alive today that would be nearly impossible to kill. That’s because of the massive catalog of sub-brands that they own. Some of the best examples would be Procter and Gamble ( ) or Unilever ( ). Their sub-brands are a part of everyone’s daily lives and would be very difficult to live with out.

Although not as necessary as the two companies just mentioned, a similar scenario exists in the clothing and shoe industries. There are many large companies that own a suite of world famous brands, like LVMH ( $LVMHF ), that are just too entrenched in society to fail.

That doesn’t mean that these companies won’t go through tough times. Instead, they will go through periods of lackluster results, and then eventually resume growth due to their brand reputation.

One the best examples right now is Nike ( ) . The company seems to have done everything wrong over the past several years, which has sent share prices plummeting to levels not seen since 2014.

It’s entirely possible that Nike’s share price will continue its downward trend for the foreseeable future. But, will the brand disappear altogether? Highly unlikely.

What’s interesting about Nike’s situation is not so much related to the company itself, but what has happened to the broader shoe industry. Whether it’s Nike’s poor performance that has pulled down other companies, or just the general weakness in the consumer cyclical sector itself, the net result is that there are huge opportunities right now.

That’s especially true for legacy shoe brands that have solid financials, reasonable valuations, and are growing into new emerging markets.

Shoes for Status

There is an incredible development that has taken place around the world for the past several decades.

Source: World Bank

Poverty rates have declined significantly and are still projected to improve for many parts of the world. This is of course good for humanity as a whole, but it’s also good for companies selling their products to emerging consumer classes.

When it comes to shoes, there are two quotes that sum up this new consumer class quite well:

"Give a girl the right shoes and she can conquer the world.” - Marilyn Monroe

“A woman with good shoes is never ugly.” - Coco Chanel

Guys are probably less likely to admit the same sentiment, but the general message is clear: One of the best ways to feel better about yourself, and signal to others that you are someone of worth, is to wear the right attire.

Wanting to leave someone with a good last impression, after they’ve inspected you from head to toe, shoes are often times the most expensive item a consumer will splurge on.

We saw this trend play out in real time, just prior to the pandemic, where shoe companies around the world exploded in value. Today, despite continued strong sales, valuations have tumbled.

Here are some of those companies:

• V.F. Corporation ( )

• Steven Madden Ltd ( )

• Columbia Sportswear Co ( )

• Crox Inc ( )

• Wolverine World Wide Inc ( )

These companies, many of which trade at single digit forward multiples, own the shoe brands that consumers continue to purchase on an everyday basis.

But there are two companies which sell premium shoes so unique and well known, that it’s surprising that they have dropped in value along with their lessor priced peers.

Premium Status for a Discount

It’s rare to have a style of anything, in any industry, which survives multiple generations. It’s even more rare to see the sales of these timeless designs increase as time goes on.

For these two companies, which were recently trading for double their current share price, that’s exactly what’s going on…

Read more

He works for one of the biggest power companies in the world, and I have almost no experience in the power industry… So, I thought his call was kind of weird.

He continued, “Our insurance policy paid out on the replacement cost, but we still have to remove all of the damaged panels. I’m thinking we could just take them all off the site and store them somewhere to recycle at a later date, once we figure something out.”

“How many panels are there?” I asked.

“I’m not sure exactly,” he said, “but I think around 100,000. They’re not all damaged, but our company is going to upgrade the entire farm anyway, so they’re all being replaced.”

“100,000!?” I replied, “I don’t know what to do with a 100,000 of anything, let alone 100,000 broken solar panels! Doesn’t your company know how to do this already? This seems like a strange situation for you guys.”

“I know this sounds ridiculous, but we’ve already called a couple of different companies that specialize in this stuff and they have a backlog of almost a year until they can get the panels removed from our site, but we need to start installing the new ones well before that. We’re desperate here and basically willing to pay anyone to get these removed - that’s why I called you. I thought you’d be able to figure something out.”

As tempted as I am to get a crew of people together to go disassemble all of those panels, transport them to some field for storage, and then figure out how to recycle them, I know I’m much better off just investing in the companies that do this already.

But what companies do this!?

And how much money is actually involved here?

The Irony of “Green” Waste

As I went down the rabbit hole of finding solar panel recycling companies, I realized two things:

1. This industry is relatively early and disjointed.

2. This is already a multi-BILLION dollar industry.

Here is what is going on…

The first generation of green energy infrastructure is currently reaching its expiration date. While the transition to renewable energy was designed to benefit the environment, it’s now creating a massive hardware and pollution crisis.

Across the United States, Asia, and Europe:

• Outdated and damaged solar panels are everywhere

• “Blade graveyards” of retired wind turbines are growing

• Millions of first-gen electric vehicle (EV) batteries are sitting in junk yards

• Smart meters are hitting the scrap heap

• And the list goes on…

Obviously this is a huge opportunity for creative individuals and companies.

Decommissioning and recycling green tech has become a mandatory industrial requirement, and that’s even more true as certain metals and chemicals increase in value.

Let’s dive into the different opportunities…

5 Categories of the Clean Energy Trash Crisis & 9 Companies Making the Profits

Wind Turbine Repurposing

Windmill turbine blades are a logistical nightmare because they are made of near-indestructible fiberglass and resin that cannot be melted down. To make things worse, they are extremely difficult to transport, with some blades measuring over 350 feet in length!

Source: WSM

That means it’s very difficult to find a way to profitably dispose, or reuse, these blades. What’s resulted in many parts of the world are massive ‘blade graveyards’ which are now causing even further issues related to neighborhood eyesores and real ecological concerns.

Source: DN

In Texas, it’s become a major issue with a variety of lawsuits surrounding the problem. One location, which estimates the cost to remove the blades “from $13 million to $54 million,” has a a group of people all pointing the finger at each other as to who’s responsible for getting rid of them.

There are a variety of companies that are able to cut the blades for different uses, which include park benches and bridges, but they’re hardly economical. Furthermore, the demand to dispose of the blades far outpaces the demand for unique repurposed equipment.

Some companies, like Renewablade, will bring equipment to these blade graveyards to perform recycling operations on site. They shred and grind up large blades and then use the resulting material as substrate in concrete. While the energy to perform this operation is debated (i.e. is it just easier to leave giant blades in a field in the middle of nowhere?), this company has found a unique niche.

One company that really sticks out is Vestas ( $VWDRY ), which is based in Denmark. Vestas is mostly known for manufacturing and installing large scale wind farms around the world, but they also recycle the same blades that they manufacture.

Source: Vestas

The company’s share price has more than doubled since last year, and could see even more gains if countries around the world shift more towards energy independence (which is likely going to be more of a priority considering out current geopolitical situation).

Rare Earth Recovery from EV Motor & Wind Generator Magnets

One company that highlights the issue with recycling rare earth metals is the US-based company, REEcycle, which just received a funding grant from the US Department of War.

Although the US is home to thousands of recyclers, none of them currently possess a profitable method for recovering rare earth elements (REEs) from magnets. Instead, these components are typically shredded and sold as low-value contaminated scrap metal.

This is obviously a massive issue when you consider that new applications for magnets emerge annually, driving a demand growth rate of over 30% while supply is expected to fall behind.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that there are currently no known substitutes that can match the performance of REEs. Even worse for the US, China’s 97% control over the REEs used in magnets leaves global manufacturers exposed to significant trade war volatility and supply chain risks.

Read more

Of course, in hindsight, those calls have been horrible. Oil and gas have ripped higher than most could have ever imagined while gold has pulled back by ~$1,000/oz since January.

Oil, gas, and gold in 2026 have done the complete opposite of what Goldman Sachs predicted… So far, that is.

As you may remember, I was very bullish about oil and gas last year. I even went to Canada on a fact-finding mission, which I shared here. Every company I mentioned in that last article have seen incredible gains over the past couple of months.

But that’s not what I find most interesting right now. It’s metal miners that are currently in a very curious situation, and the recent volatility in oil is what makes this whole opportunity important today.

Cheap Oil, Expensive Metals, Huge Margins

During last year’s run up in metals prices (especially gold, silver, and platinum), there was an even larger price explosion in the mining companies that extract these metals from the earth.

This was not really a major surprise, but it was a little different than how things have unfolded in the past. Generally speaking, mining companies rally after metal prices surge.

The rational is that investors are waiting to see sustained elevation in metals prices before accumulating mining companies that would see increased margins from those valuable metals.

One of the major reasons why miners rallied with metals is because oil was so cheap. In most mining operations, the cost of diesel can account for 20%-40% of total opex… And even more if diesel prices really skyrocket.

Throughout late 2025 mining investors saw this oil-cheap, metals-expensive scenario as a major buying opportunity. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF ( ) doubled in just six months. Some individual mining companies share prices exploded much, much more than that.

But since the start of the war in Iran, things have drastically changed. And that may be our opportunity.

The Best Gold Miners in the World are CHEAP Right Now

The run up in gold prices, and miners, could be seen as a repricing event rather than a normal market rally. Meaning that the broader market - really the entire world - was not properly valuing gold prior to 2025.

Now, in early 2026, as we’re seeing gold prices and miners pull back from their highs, one has to ask, “Is this rally over?”

Although no one has the answer to that, gold prices are historically correlated to market uncertainty, inflation, and central bank policy - all three of which could be tailwinds for the foreseeable future.

As I mentioned last week, uncertainty is literally at a generational all time high. And when you look at the US’s budget situation, it’s almost impossible to imagine a scenario where a ‘big print’ doesn’t come at some point.

Regardless of all of that, gold miners are incredibly cheap right now and the market is ignoring them as if they were yesterday’s news. Could this be a major opportunity for investors to load up on the world’s best gold producers?

Let’s start looking…

The World’s Largest Gold Miner

I hesitate to even mention this company because of their stock chart. The run up in Newmont Corporation’s ( ) stock price is so extreme my gut tells me to look elsewhere.

But if you look at Newmont’s valuation and financial metrics, it’s hard to paint a bearish picture.

With a forward P/E of less than 9, over $8 billion in cash, and an operating margin of almost 50%, this company is nearly guaranteed to live prosperously far into the future. And that doesn’t even take into account that they are the world’s largest gold miner, both in market cap and ounces of gold produced per year (projected at well over 5 million ounces in 2026).

If I had to pick something that I don’t like about the company, it would only relate to the location of some of its mines. With operations in Canada, Mexico, Suriname, Argentina, Peru, Australia, Papua New Guinea, Ghana, and the U.S., there are a couple of countries I’d prefer to stay away from. But, their portfolio is diversified enough to not cause that much concern.

Newmont isn’t my top pick, but I at least wanted to highlight that even with its unbelievable run up in price, it’s still valued attractively.

The Other 9 Gold Miners

Beyond Newmont, the other major gold miners that round out the top ten largest in the world are also relatively interesting.

• Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd ( )

• Barrick Mining Corp ( )

• Wheaton Precious Metals Corp ( )

• AngloGold Ashanti Plc ( )

• Franco-Nevada Corporation ( )

• Gold Field Ltd ( )

• Kinross Gold Corp ( )

• Pan American Silver Corp ( )

• Royal Gold Inc ( )

And of these nine, only Agnico, Wheaton, Franco-Nevada, and Royal Gold trade with a forward P/E more than 10. The rest are arguably cheap by nearly every metric you can point to.

Despite the top ten gold miners looking very attractive right now, there are others that are even more enticing.

The following four companies make the above look expensive…

Read more

But just because they’re not drinking traditional alcoholic beverages doesn’t mean they aren’t drinking something. There’s a whole new category of drinks that are rapidly becoming more mainstream, and there’s big money being spent.

These new categories are already starting to disrupt the $2 trillion global alcohol market, which is expected to double by the mid-2030’s. With new RTD (ready-to-drink) formulations and a growing global consumer class fueling this growth, there are enormous opportunities for those who can bring the right products to market.

The Pandemic Hangover

Pouring a glass during the pandemic, for many people, was an easy way to deal with staying at home all day with your relatives. Nearly 30% of people in the US reported increased alcohol use during this time.

Now, that trend is reversing course.

American’s alcohol consumption rate is currently at the lowest it’s been in 90 years, and 2026’s data could prove even more shocking (yet to come out).

Source: Gallup

If you search “alcohol” on nearly every social app, you’re much more likely to find posts about people complaining about the bad effects, or celebrating their sobriety (try it - search ‘alcohol’ on and see what you find).

Alcohol companies are feeling the heat from this change in consumer behavior. Even the best investor in the world - Warren Buffet - has started to trim his Constellation Brands ( ) position after his -30% return (so far).

The company’s share price has been hammered over the past couple of years:

And it’s not just Constellation.

It’s Diageo ( ) too:

And Pernod Ricard ( $PDRDF ):

And Brown Forman ( $BF.B ):

And pretty much every major alcohol company you can think of. These are not recent trends, these are trends that have been unfolding since the peak of pandemic debauchery.

Note: As I was writing this, Pernod Ricard (maker of Absolut vodka) and Brown Forman (make of Jack Daniels) announced that they were considering a merger, highlighting the need to consolidate in the struggling market.

So what the heck are people drinking instead?

The New Drinking Class - Near Beer

We don’t need to look any further than what’s been happening in the beer world, as it’s the most popular alcoholic drink in the world by a long shot (about 40% of the total global volume).

The giant in this industry is ABInBev ( ), which owns famous brands like Budweiser, Corona, Michelob, Modelo, Stella Artois, and many more. (*Constellation Brands distributes Corona and Modelo in the US.)

ABInBev’s most recent reporting highlights the growth of their non-alcoholic beer revenue, which is over 8 times the growth of their traditional brands.

Source: ABInBev Investor Presentation

The company’s projected growth of their non-alcoholic beer line-up is projected to triple in the next several years.

Source: ABInBev Investor Presentation

The focus on their non-alcoholic category has appeared to somewhat stabilize their stock price.

Meanwhile, the other beer giant - Molson Coors ( ) - seems to be failing with no signs of stopping.

Interestingly, ABInBev’s most recent company presentation is the only major alcohol company to make an emphasis on this growing part of the market. There are several pages detailing their strategy and even major advertising campaigns, like Corona Cero’s recent sponsorship of the Milan Cortina Olympics.

Molson Coors, which owns Peroni’s non-alcoholic brand, doesn’t even have the words “non-alcoholic” in their annual presentation.

If you review Constellation’s recent report, they barely mention anything about this category, and the same goes with the presentation from Boston Beer Company ( ). Both of these company’s share prices have been crushed.

Are these major brewers completely missing the non-alcoholic boat?

It seems so, especially when you look at the growth of smaller startup brands, like Athletic Brewing.

As recently shared, “Athletic represents 52% of the non-alcoholic craft beer market, which alone isn’t surprising, until [you] put it in the context that they are outselling all 150+ other non-alcoholic craft beers, combined.”

It’s only a matter of time until brands like Athletic Brewing get acquired by major beverage distributors.

And that may happen soon…

The Next Player in Non-Alcoholic Beer - Soda Companies?

Athletic Brewing, which has outsold both Heineken’s and Bud’s non-alcoholic beer, has been on an incredible growth path, and it seems that they aren’t stopping.

Having raised $50 million two years ago, the company now produces over 500,000 barrels a year (that’s well over 80 million cans of beer!).

The company has invested heavily in their operations to continue to scale up their production and they are consistently ranked as one of the fastest growing companies in America.

But there was another fund raising round back in 2022 that investors should take note of. Prior to the $50 million raised in 2024, Athletic Brewing raised a previous $50 million round back in 2022. And guess who that round was led by?

A drink company that doesn’t own any kind of beer brand at all - Keurig Dr Pepper ( ).

Among KDP’s numerous brands, there are only a couple related to alcohol - margarita and bloody mary mixes. They mostly own brands like Dr. Pepper, 7Up, Snapple, Canada Dry, Krispy Kreme Donuts, and numerous other sugary drinks.

The company’s share price has struggled over the past couple years, and has drastically underperformed competitors Coca-Cola ( ) and Pepsi ( ) over the last five years:

in red, in green, and in blue.

Could Keurig Dr. Pepper have its eyes set on the non-alcoholic beer market to change their direction?

Although KDP did invest in Athletic Brewing back in 2022, there were no public announcements about any acquisition rights or intent.

If KDP doesn’t act soon to reverse their trajectory, maybe Coca-Cola or Pepsi will enter the non-alcoholic category? Coca-Cola already has several brands of RTD alcoholic drinks and Pepsi just announced their entrance into the same category.

Whatever happens here, it’s clear that legacy alcohol companies need to change their product offerings for an evolving consumer base.

While we wait, it’s almost certain that we’ll see a wave of non-alcoholic beverage acquisitions over the next couple of years. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see these traditional soda companies enter the game.

I’ll be highlighting another interesting development in the beverage world soon… One that involves Coca-Cola’s monopoly on a secret ingredient that another, soon to IPO company, has cracked.

To the north, the Sierra Nevada region offers Yosemite, Sequoia National Park, Lake Tahoe, and the highest mountain in the contiguous US - Mount Whitney (which I actually ran up by myself with a single water bottle one time).

Almost to the top of Mt Whitney, feeling some vertigo from the altitude.

To the east, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona are all easily accessible and offer more outdoor activities than you can shake a stick at. My favorites in these three states include Sedona, Huntsville, and Lake Mead.

Whether it was hiking, off roading, boating, or just staring at the star-studded skies, this western part of the United States gives the ultimate feeling of freedom and adventure. It’s an addictive feeling that many people invest significant time and money to make part of their lifestyles.

Although I’ve spent plenty of time in the areas mentioned above, there is nowhere else I have spent as much time in as Baja, California. This part of Mexico is extremely remote, offering some of the truest adventure - mixed with some danger - for those really wanting to get out there. It also doesn’t hurt that this stretch of coastline has some of the best hidden surf in the world.

Yes, that’s me as a kid, somewhere in remote Baja during the late 80’s.

Over the years, I’ve owned boats, off road adventure vans, travel trailers, motorcycles, quads, and every accessory you can imagine. If you live in this part of the world, what I’m explaining doesn’t sound crazy at all.

If you’re somewhere else in the US, or some other country, maybe this lifestyle sounds strange.

Maybe you’d be surprised to hear that many people pay just as much for their monthly RV or boat loan as they do for the actual home they live in.

It’s a HUGE industry.

In 2024 alone, there were over 200,000 new RV loans, which totaled more than $11.5 billion dollars in total funded value. -RVIA

And that was just for RV’s. When you look at boats, motorcycles, and all the other outdoor toys, the number explodes to well over a trillion dollars!

You get the point. It’s a massive industry and Americans love to exercise their freedoms, find adventure, bond with their family, and spend money like drunken sailors.

Hell yeah. Merica!

However, the industry today looks a lot different than it did just a couple of years ago. Recreational companies during the pandemic years, especially in the US, saw a boom like they have never seen before.

Hundreds of billions of dollars plowed their way into motorhomes, travel trailers, boats, and every outdoor activity you can think of. Companies raked in record profits and literally ran out of things to sell.

Anyone reading this today probably remembers this time well. But 20 years from now, this story will be hard to comprehend. RV show rooms ran out of inventory to sell. There were no more boats left on dealer’s lots. For a period of time, things were out of stock indefinitely.

Just like any boom bust cycle, we all know what comes next…

Boom, BUST. Wen Next Boom?

It’s the classic supply and demand story that effects every industry you can think of. Once supply surpasses demand, there’s only one thing left to do… Wait until that supply runs down to create demand again.

During this waiting period, disaster can effect even some of the most well known brands. Companies that over extend themselves during boom times struggle to survive with their oversupply.

The exact scenario happened to Joann Fabrics and Crafts last year in 2025. After their boom in sales during the pandemic, they couldn’t adjust fast enough for the eventual drop off - when people stopped sitting at home all day knitting sweaters!

Looking further back in time, you can find dozens of similar situations. Chesapeake Energy during the shale boom, Lehman Brothers during the housing crisis, and Jay Cooke & Company during the railroad boom of the late 1800’s.

But just because major brand name companies go under during these times of turmoil doesn’t mean the industry they’re operating in disappears. In fact, companies that can survive hard times typically come out stronger on the other side.

Investors who can identify these companies that will make it through to brighter times can reap enormous rewards. The challenge in finding the right player who can outlast the rest.

When it comes to the outdoor industry, one of the best examples of ‘will this company survive?’ is Camping World ( ) .

Just four years ago, this company was raking in nearly $7 billion a year and trading at over $40 per share. Today, their revenue is slightly less, but their shares have cratered to less than $6 per share.

Camping World is known as the nation's largest retailer of RV’s, RV accessories, and RV-related services. They were, until recently, led by well known CEO Marcus Lemonis who is still a major shareholder.

With a forward P/E of less than 6, Camping World would look extremely attractive right now… But they have a mountain of debt that looks very concerning to me.

What’s more interesting are the numerous brands that Camping World sells and does business with… But they don’t own. We’re talking about some of the best known recreational brands you can think of, with worldwide recognition.

These companies, which are household names, embody the feeling of adventure, freedom, and family. They’ve been featured in Hollywood movies for nearly a century and their products can maintain value over many decades.

Some antique versions can sell for much more than what they sell for today, all because outdoor enthusiasts value their real world functionality and their longterm symbology.

Today, you can buy these companies for a fraction of what they were previously valued at. And, if you’re like me, you shouldn’t be worried at all about the comeback of these brands.

I’ve picked four separate companies to highlight. Two of these companies own multiple brands that you will be very familiar with. You might of even seen one of them today.

A Catalyst for the Outdoor Recreation Industry?

Before we dive into the many brands and companies I think are on sale right now, it’s important to ask the question: why now?

Just as with any investment thesis, there needs to be some sort of catalyst to change the direction of a beat down industry. Why will the trend change?

We need to look no further than the current geopolitical chaos that is unfolding in the Middle East. While no one knows what will happen in the short term, there are already known effects impacting the medium term.

Drastic increases in oil prices have nearly doubled airfares in many parts of the world. Travel advisories for American citizens are no longer just applicable to the furthest flung destinations.

And that’s not even considering that flying just isn’t fun anymore. From the security line nightmares, to the unruly passenger packed buses in the sky, taking your family on a trip that involves airline travel is a nightmare.

We’ve seen this before. 25 years ago, to be exact. And here’s what happened next:

It doesn’t take a rocket surgeon to understand why this happened. The US has an incredible network of National Parks that include Yellowstone, Glacier, Grand Canyon, Everglades, Grand Teton, Zion, and dozens of other world famous natural wonders.

Then, when you combine the drivability of the entire US and the thousands of amazing cities, it’s obvious why consumers spend, and will continue to spend, so much money on adventures.

There are already signs of catalysts showing up, like this new partnership between Costco and Camping World.

Source: Costco

Let’s dive into the companies best positioned to come out of the outdoor recreational bust cycle, catalyzed by renewed global uncertainty… And take a look at some more recent news that could be a sign that the industry is turning around.

Read more

But really, it was a great trip. We got to swim in the lake, pet some wild deer, and I even burned a hole in my shoe during the evening campfire sessions. My kids got a kick out of that, after I had been warning them not to swing around coal-studded fire pokers.

While we were there I had a friend stop by for lunch who manages a large family office hedge fund based in Charlotte. He’s been successfully managing the fund for almost 20 years and I try to lap up any wise words he shares with me.

Looking out over the lake, out conversation quickly turned to the markets. Silver and platinum had just begin to make their meteoric rise, catching up to gold’s historic run after years of dormancy.

Having a lot of exposure to those metals and miners in my fund I mentioned that I was considering going to cash. My rationale was that I was uncomfortable with the enormous gains I was seeing in such a short amount of time. Of course the gains were great, but what was coming next?

I wasn’t seriously going to go into cash, but the comment I made sparked a broader conversation.

“You know,” Cody, my mentor said, “That’s one of the biggest challenges with investing and managing money for the long term. There’s always a temptation to bank your gains, but sometimes you just end up killing your momentum.

“But the bigger issue is not with killing your momentum,” he continued, “It’s that you always need to have your next move planned before you feel the urge to sell anything. Managing money is just as much about building a long term path as it is about the real time management part. That’s why very few people can do it long term. It’s difficult, exhausting, and sometimes feels impossible.”

Our conversation wondered off in some other direction, but his words have stuck with me - and they are especially relevant today.

Over the past couple of weeks I have been selling off much of my fund, taking profits in anticipation of new deep value plays ahead. This has been a difficult process, especially when I think about that conversation at Lake Norman.

But the data and information I’m looking at are telling me to take caution right now… And that was before the conflict in the Middle East broke out.

Mainstream’s Narratives

Let’s take a quick look at the obvious first: oil and gas.

The correlations of oil spikes and economic recessions are stunning. The only time an oil spike didn’t result in a recession was most recently in 2022. But, as I’ve explained in depth before, that time didn’t count. (Really, it didn’t!)

Source:

I have been looking at similar charts for the past year, which is one of the lessor reasons why I’ve been overweight in oil and gas over the past six months. The main reason was because oil and gas equities were trading at historically low valuations relative to… Everything!

My thought, other than the obvious value part, was that I’d like to be positioned in something that will rally and sing like a canary when trouble is coming. I think we’re there, or at least very close.

What’s interesting with this current oil rally is that it coincides with equity markets that are near all time high valuations. In fact, this past January marked the highest market cap to US GDP ratio in history (Warren Buffett’s favorite metric), at 220%.

Without taking into account a broader historical context, one would think that the current oil spike is purely attributed to the war in Iran. Zooming out, this oil spike would seem unordinary, assuming that all market run-ups proceeding recessions include a last hurrah from dinosaur bones.

Maybe that’s the point: We’re losing sight of the broader cycle and blaming price fluctuations on conveniently timed geopolitical crises. Maybe this is all just the broader master plan, which has been foretold by Mr. Benner:

Continuing on the current oil theme for a moment, the main concerns for market participants relate to how long we’ll have an oil crisis. How long will the Strait be closed?

The data is clear: The longer oil prices stay high, the more devastating the results.

Source: Vanguard

This is especially true for countries outside of the US, and their currencies.

Source: LSEG

This will weigh heavily on investors who have recently been rotating out of expensive US markets and into other parts of the world. As Reuters stated last month:

For the beginning of 2026, it was a great move - emerging markets and certain key US partners have had explosive returns lately. South Korea’s KOSPI saw a nearly 40% gain in the first two months of the year alone.

But, have investors jumped the gun by venturing outside the US too soon? The dollar index has sharply reversed trend as oil has ripped, and increasing energy costs tend to drag down non-US economies dramatically more.

Investors know this and have already been selling off many foreign tech companies in preparation for international consumer weakness. Alibaba ( ), Sea Limited ( ) , Nu Holdings ( ), MercadoLibre ( ), and many more have sold off aggressively since the start of 2026.

These company’s valuations, which are actually very attractive right now, may rise dramatically in the near future if weak consumer spending pulls down revenue generation. This, in turn, will drive those equity prices even lower as investors search for opportunities at fair value and steady growth.

The general consensus right now is that this scenario will happen due to our global oil shock that will lopsidedly effect those company’s target markets… Unless we have a very sharp reversal of what is going on in and around Iran.

What Mainstream is Missing, or at Least Ignoring

Beyond the current oil shock and geopolitical developments - which are still unfolding - there are a variety of data points that have piqued my interest over the past couple of years that relate to certainty.

Specifically that we, as investors and as a society, have an ever declining amount of certainty with nearly everything.

Some of this uncertainty is part of a normal cyclical process, like the election cycle. 2026 is a mid-term election year in the US which naturally brings up a lot of questions for where the country, and as a result much of the world, is headed.

Source: Longview Economics

Market drawdowns during mid-term election years are, simply put, not good. And it makes perfect sense why. Whether it’s new policy that will overturn certain market trends or individual elected officials that could alter global initiatives, the 12 months proceeding the mid-term elections have historically been very volatile.

Since November 3, 2025 - which is the beginning of the 12 months proceeding the 2026 US mid-term elections - the largest (peak-to-trough) drawdown in the S&P 500 has been -7.55%. This is well below the average of -18.2%, and would make it one of the lowest drawdown years ever.

Of course, we still have eight more months until the mid-terms… There’s plenty more time for things to happen!

Once in a Lifetime Uncertainty

The mid-term election uncertainty is just a blip on the radar. It really doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things, especially since we know it’ll happen again, and again, and again.

There’s another, much more important, cyclical uncertainty event that we’re all currently living through. The problem with this one is that it only comes around once in every generation. So, despite it’s cyclical nature, it’s really a one time experience for all involved.

That’s AI.

A quick disclaimer: I am not an AI zealot, nor have I been meaningfully invested in any specific AI company. But I do recognize it’s immediate and potential impact on society.

Not since World War II, has the world lived with the type of uncertainty it has today. I’m cautious to co-mingle historically significant events that included enormous amounts of tragedy and death, but the net result of the scenarios of today and of the past are likely to be very similar: We’ll soon be in a world that is nothing like today, and is currently nearly impossible to forecast accurately.

Of great importance is that no one has lived through an event like we’re currently experiencing. One where the future looks so uncertain that any significant investment of time, money, or energy may be a complete waste.

Again, this is not saying a period of extreme uncertainty hasn’t happened in the past. It just hasn’t happened during our personal lifetimes, which positions us individually in a very unfamiliar situation.

To be sure that my ‘extreme uncertainty’ remarks are not hyperbole, take a look at the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for the United States:

Source: FRED

The elevation of the index ‘uncertainty level’ is just as important as the time this level is sustained at that elevation. As you can see, there is no other time in the past 40 years that even comes close. While data doesn’t exist (or at least I can’t find any) for the time period during WWII, I’m sure a similar index would look the same or even much worse. Regardless, none of us have lived through two of these events, making our current ‘certainty feelings’ incomparable.

Musical Chairs - You Don’t Have to Play

Investing is often a game of musical chairs. When one opportunity disappears, you have to find a new one quickly to keep your capital hard at work. Not deploying your capital - as in, not finding a chair to sit in - means you’re out of the game.

By the logic of many investors, including my mentor, you always need to be in the game. Even long term data shows that staying in the market always pays off.

As Buffett says, “Time in the market beats timing the market.”

But we also know that Berkshire holds the highest percentage of cash, ever, at over 30%, which is nearly $400 billion.

Do as he says? Or do as he does?

Your Permission Slip

Maybe you’ve read this far and thought to yourself, “Was this just some kind of cognitive dissonance exercise so Cody could justify his increased cash position within his fund?”

Perhaps there’s a bit of truth to that. Has there been anything written in world history where an author argues that their point of view is wrong?

Beyond my selfish current perspective, I truly do believe that most market participants have been conditioned to favor risk over caution for far too long. The FOMO, buy-the-dip, fintwit-compare-your-dick-annual-returns have all gone on long enough to seem completely normal.

It’s not.

So here’s your permission to take some caution.

There will always be new opportunities around each corner… But you can’t take action if you haven’t positioned yourself to exploit those opportunities.

All it took was a single run-in with an industrial ammonia plant, and now I can barely even look at that stuff.

It happened during the winter of 2011, when I was pulled from the fire station and shipped off to San Jose, California, for months of haz-mat specialist training. My department needed me certified, as our emergency calls were increasingly related to unknown chemicals and terrorist threats.

Between endless hours spent learning how to identify and handle live chemical agents, explosives, and every other nightmare substance you can imagine, we were constantly loaded onto buses for off-site visits to nearby chemical plants. The training was both extremely technical, but also somewhat simple. Part of the day was spent studying chemistry and specialized equipment handling, while the rest of the day was spent on putting it all to use in the field. 

A couple of months into my training we visited an industrial scale ammonia manufacturing facility. This location used the Haber-Bosch process, which reacts nitrogen from the air with hydrogen at high temperatures and pressures using an iron-based catalyst. But the most important thing I can remember from this day was the smell.

There's an incredible amount of research that links smells to memories. One random sniff of a specific scent can trigger immediate and vivid memories of a specific time and place.

That's what ammonia does to me.

It reminds me of that facility in San Jose. The tanks, pipes, sounds, and incredible amount of infrastructure that I wouldn't be able to rebuild on my own, even if I had an entire lifetime.

What's incredible, beyond the smells, is that there are nearly 15,000 similar chemical factories across the United States owned by thousands of individual companies.  Some of these companies, which are publicly traded, are currently valued for less than their replacement cost.

The market is wrong. And that's your opportunity.

Building Blocks of Society

Ammonia is just one of thousands of different chemicals that are manufactured in the US and around the world. Each of these chemicals rarely makes it to the consumer market on their own. Instead they are usually used as precursors for everything from fertilizers to plastics.

Literally everything you touch or are using in this exact moment was built by combining numerous different chemicals. Every day, the average human touches or consumes at least 100 different kinds.

It's impossible to imagine a future where we are not using chemicals, as they are relied on for our food, clothing, housing, and basic survival. And, as technologies advance, it's certain that we'll become even more dependent.

Despite this reliance, markets are almost completely forgetting about the basic commodities that our lives depend on. Similar to the situation with oil that I recently outlined, I believe there is an enormous opportunity within the chemical industry that is hiding in plain view.

Geopolitical Shock - My Chemical Thesis Changed Overnight

I started to write all of this about a month ago, before the war in Iran started.

Now, the exact chemical companies I was eluding to have seen parabolic moves to the upside. And there might be a lot more to come.

I don't need to give you an overview of what's happening in the world right now. With the Straight of Hormuz effectively closed, petrochemical exports from the Middle East have all but stopped, creating massive price volatility for various materials around the world.

Some things, like gasoline and diesel have seen obvious changes to the upside. Others, like food commodities and certain metals, have seen unbelievable daily swings as the market tries to figure out what is going to happen.

Like I mentioned earlier, specialty chemicals are required to manufacture nearly everything we encounter on a daily basis. And even more importantly, oil and gas are needed to manufacture those specialty chemicals.  

Source: CER

Because oil and gas supplies for international markets have been significantly disrupted, those 15,000 US chemical facilities have become incredibly strategic. That's especially true when you consider that the United States is a net oil and gas exporter. In other words, it's possible that the final products that specialty chemical companies in the US produce could have massive margins when selling their products in to the world market. Cheaper US oil and gas inputs with more expensive specialty chemical outputs.

Of course, not all chemical companies will see benefits. The type and price of their feedstocks will create a highly volatile market with big winners, and losers.

Oil & Gas Alchemy

Ideally, we want to look for companies that manufacture chemicals using US-based feedstocks (which is cheap, abundant natural gas and oil that we produce right here at home). These aren’t the giant commodity giants that swing wildly with every barrel of oil. We’re talking about specialty chemical producers that turn low-cost inputs into high-value products that the world can’t live without.

The war in Iran has created massive volatility, but it might also be making a structural advantage for American manufacturers. Cheaper domestic energy means fatter margins on the output side, especially when global competitors in the Middle East are offline.

It’s simple alchemy: low-cost feedstock in, premium-priced specialty chemicals out, sold into a world that suddenly has a shortage.

But not every name will capture this opportunity. The winners will be the ones with integrated US plants, strong balance sheets, and exposure to end-markets that stay resilient no matter how crazy energy prices get (think agriculture, autos, electronics, and infrastructure). That’s where the real opportunity sits right now.

Specialty Chemicals - A Smarter Bet

The market looks like it might be noticing what I learned smelling ammonia in that California plant back in 2011. Those chemical facilities aren’t basic factories. Instead, they’re national strategic assets. And specialty chemical companies are the ones best positioned to turn that reality into profits.

Unlike pure commodity plays that live and die by the price of a single feedstock, specialties give you pricing power, recurring demand, and the ability to pass through higher costs. The longer we see supply shocks, the more essential they'll become. Your cell phone, the fertilizer on your neighbor’s yard, the coatings on the bridge you drive over every day don't exist without them.

And now, with Middle Eastern supply choked off, US producers can charge global prices while paying domestic energy costs (albeit more expensive than a couple months ago). The parabolic moves we're seeing in the sector in the past couple of weeks probably aren't the top... Those moves are more like a multi-year re-rating. The same kind of re-rating we've seen with precious metals, like platinum (which I had been screaming about). 

Replacement costs for these plants are skyrocketing due to already increasing labor costs and rampant inflation. Despite the massive amount of money it'd take to build new facilities, many specialty chemical companies are trading for single digit P/E ratios and offer healthy dividends. 

Gorgonzola Smells Like Profit?

If any name feels personal to me after that 2011 training, it’s AdvanSix ($ASIX). This company makes nylon-6 resin, caprolactam, phenol, and acetone that go into everything from airbags and carpets to electronics and industrial coatings. They also produce ammonium sulfate fertilizer... The exact nutrient product that’s now in short supply globally because of the disruptions through the Straight of Hormuz.

What makes AdvanSix special is its fully integrated US footprint. They run on cheap domestic natural gas, have a disciplined $30 million annual cost-savings plan already in motion, and have a P/B ratio around 0.7. That is ridiculously cheap for a business whose replacement value keeps climbing everyday the Iranian conflict drags on... And everyday the US goes further into debt, only accelerating the re-emergence of the USD printing press!

The likely fertilizer crisis from the war is a direct tailwind for AdvanSix's agriculture business and their nylon products are tied to autos and construction that aren’t going anywhere. Although, to be fair, if we have an economic downturn, their nylon division could be more a liability. Still, the company is so cheap, I wonder if that's not even something to worry about?

There are dozens of other similar companies that trade in the US and throughout the world that could be in similar situations. Companies like Eastman Chemical ($EMN), Huntsman Corporation ($HUN), and CVR Partners ($UAN) are all worth keeping an eye on. 

All of those companies (and many others) have been operating for the past several years in extremely challenging conditions (especially from competitors that have unfair advantages due to government subsidies). Now as the tide changes, those companies who have remained disciplined for the past decade could see enormous windfalls.

Second Order Profits

In the past, I've often talked about second and third order consequences in investing. Right now, as we see oil prices swing wildly, most investors are trying to scalp off profits from this crazy volatility. But the bigger picture we should all be looking at relates to what these price swings will effect.

Late last year, I explained in detail why oil was a major opportunity. Then, just a couple months ago, I went to Canada to make sure I was investing in the right oil and gas companies.

Now that we've seen oil and gas run up dramatically (as in, the biggest gain in trading history), I'm now already re-allocating into what I think will be next.

The war in Iran only strengthened my original thesis. The 15,000 chemical plants scattered across America aren’t just random pipe and tank facilities anymore. They’re strategic assets in a supply-constrained world, and the smartest specialty chemical companies are sitting right in the middle of the biggest margin expansion we’ve seen in years.

The opportunity is still hiding in plain sight. And there will be even more industries to be impacted very soon...