I devoured the book shortly after it was released, having great respect for his previous two books Investment Biker and Adventure Capitalist. His teachings and life story have impacted my personal view of the world tremendously.

He’s most famous for co-founding the Quantum Fund with George Soros and retiring at the age of 37. However, I think his legacy will live on through his down-to-earth teachings in his fun-to-read writing.

But if I’m being honest, most of Hot Commodities went over my head the first time I read it. I was too young and too ignorant to really grasp the bigger picture.

So, I read it again this past week while I was in California for a short surf trip. I saw the book on a shelf in my friend’s yurt that I was staying in, and decided I’d just read the first chapter. And then I just kept reading.

I was stunned.

The book is a general instruction manual on how to invest in commodities, but the time frame of when it was written is most important.

He first published the book in 2004 and then updated it in 2007. He explains, with great detail and amazing accuracy, how the 2008 financial crisis would unfold.

Here is the most important part that I want to share with you: That first chapter, which this post is titled, was eerily similar to today’s world.

He talks about stocks, bonds, oil, natural gas, real estate, currencies, war, debt, central banks, and everything that was relevant during the mid-2000’s.

If I republished that first chapter of his, but changed all of the dates and dollar figures to be accurate with 2026, you wouldn’t know that what you’re reading is 20 years old.

It’s incredible.

The pitch of the book, which you can tell from the title and first chapter, is to buy real things. Things that can’t go to zero. Things that humans must have to live. Things that are not part of a speculative boom.

It all makes sense, but it requires you to go against the herd. That’s something that most people don’t have the stomach for… Unless they are forced to.

Speaking of forced, did you see what just happened?

Forced Situation

You probably saw what just happened with the Situational Awareness hedge fund. I won’t add to the commentary - already did a great job.

We won’t know the final details of how and what Citadel acquired from Situational Awareness for a little while, but it’s tempting to wonder if this means anything for the broader market?

Is this a big deal? Or is this just a minor blip on the radar?

I’m not sure.

Going back to Roger’s Hot Commodities, I was drawn to another part of the book where he discusses the history of “new things.”

The printing press, railroads, the telegraph, the radio, TV, and the internet were just some of the examples he gave (AI wasn’t much of a thought in 2004).

The cycle of the market - both from the investor and consumer perspective - is almost identical every time a “new thing” comes around.

AI is no different.

But it feels different. Every time.

That’s because our point of reference only goes to the present.

Current new technologies seem unimaginable, which leads to a peak of inflated expectations.

Did Situational Awareness ring the bell at the top? Or is there still more to go?

Again, I’m not sure.

But I’m ok if I miss ringing the bell at the top. There are plenty of other opportunities that have been forgotten and ignored, as the herd chases the shiny thing.

I won’t repeat what I previously explained. You can go back and check out the full thesis that I laid out here:

and here:

Since I wrote these two articles, the situation has only gotten more compelling.

For example, the correlation between oil and natural gas has gotten even more extreme:

And that’s just one tiny indicator that we could still be very early.

The Natural Gas Interview

Yesterday, a podcast interview about natural gas went viral. You can watch it here.

In summary, the interviewee argues that we are walking towards a massive crisis with natural gas which could send prices way, way higher.

What’s most interesting about this interview are the comments from hundreds of novice investors and natural gas industry experts. Overwhelmingly they disagree.

Everyone from public company CEOs to reply-guy-keyboard-warriors rip the interview apart. They all think that natural gas, especially in the US, is extremely abundant and will only increase in supply as more oil wells are drilled.

It’s a scenario which highlights my previously shared quote from Howard Marks:

“Not only should the lonely and uncomfortable position be tolerated, it should be celebrated.”

Natural Gas Companies Report

Yesterday, one of the largest US natural gas companies ( ) reported earnings which were basically in line with expectations.

Today, the stock is soaring by ~8% and still trades near a single digit multiple.

Other US natural gas companies are set to report their earnings in the coming weeks, which will either reinforce the extremely undervalued sector or send valuations even lower. ( , , and several others report next week.)

But while we wait for the traditionally organized stock market to discover prices, the macro environment is only getting tighter.

Yelling at Clouds

For the past several weeks professional oil and gas traders have been publicly melting down about current prices.

How can prices be so low with the war in Iran, the draining of SPR’s, the overall underinvestment in the industry, and ever increasing demand for energy?

I sympathize with their frustration. It all seems like an impossible scenario.

But I remind myself that even though I agree with them, I’m not on the same timeline.

The traders are panicking that the inevitable won’t happen fast enough. Their leveraged portfolios have expiry dates the require things to happen now.

For patient investors, it’s pretty clear what’s going to happen here: The natural gas bears and bulls will BOTH probably be wrong. Instead, we’ll end up somewhere in the middle of these two groups, which is still a lot higher than where we currently are.

Give me a ❤️ or 🔁 if you enjoyed this.

If you’re an accredited investor and you’re interested in my fund, where I pursue these exact opportunities, contact me here:

Anyway, on that Mexican beach, we were having a late night debate about global currency strategies with several others. Being in my mid-20’s at the time, I was mostly out of my league to add any real substance to the conversation.

But I do remember that night vividly because what was being said sounded unbelievable. Not that currency wars wouldn’t happen, but how they would happen.

Now, in 2026, it’s clear that we’re living through a time that James forecasted with incredible foresight. And one of the most obvious examples I can point to right now are commodities…

First, the Tactic

Part of Rickards’ argument in Currency Wars is that central banks (especially the US Fed) create policies to manipulate asset prices upward to create an artificial wealth effect. This is particularly true with equities.

These policies intentionally channel capital into paper assets, driving stock valuations and real estate to historically high multiples.

Simultaneously, because a strong U.S. dollar is often maintained to project national power or combat inflation, commodity prices are artificially suppressed.

This is exactly what is happening right now.

The narrative in the US is that we are fighting inflation, which is an easy sell to the general population.

The bigger picture game is that a stronger dollar is hurting commodity prices, allowing the US to purchase hard assets at an artificial discount.

Equally important, many foreign economies struggle because their success is heavily tied to strong commodity prices.

This is not a long term strategy. A strong dollar hurts US exports, so the present currency policy tactics will eventually be changed.

And those changes will come after certain governments and economies are forced to make deals with the US.

This is just one battle of a much larger currency war.

Next, the Opportunity

There will come a time when the dollar is too strong.

To combat this strength, the money supply will be increased and/or interest rates will be decreased. Probably both, at the same time.

A weakening US dollar will allow countries like Brazil or Indonesia to sell their commodities at a higher price.

But that’s not going to happen any time in the immediate future. In the short term, the US dollar is acting like a wrecking ball to other economies, sending US equities higher and commodities lower.

And that’s the opportunity, even though it’ll feel painful in the short term.

Sell highly valued US equities to buy undervalued commodities. And in some cases, undervalued foreign equities.

Gold, silver, nickel, aluminum, and even oil are extremely interesting right now.

He’s the one who designed the Walt Disney Concert Hall, the Guggenheim in Spain, and dozens of other hard to explain buildings.

At the time I was detailed as a building inspector, so the visit to Gehry’s personal residence wasn’t out of the ordinary. I visited hundreds of buildings and homes to verify final fire safety systems.

But what I found inside Gehry’s personal home was something I had never seen before.

There were nine geothermal probes that went down about 300 feet into the earth. These probes allowed air to be pumped up and down to regulate the temperature within the home itself. The full details are here.

Despite the complicated engineering, the idea made sense. Below the surface of the earth, temperatures are regulated much more consistently than at surface level.

Depending on the depth you go, different temperatures - cold or hot - can be reached.

Now, with the world needing more electricity than ever, a new power source is being considered…

Dig Really, Really Deep

A couple of years ago, a venture capitalist friend reached out to me about a company that was raising money to dig really, really deep holes in the ground.

With a technology that uses millimeter wave drilling, they think they can go 20 kilometers deep, which is about 12 miles down.

For perspective, the deepest drilled hole in the world is the Kola Superdeep Borehole in Russia, which goes down 7.6 miles. They had to stop drilling because it got too hot.

The company that I was being pitched, called Quaise, actually wants that heat.

Heat to Power

Just like I was pitched on SpaceX and Anduril in their early rounds, I decided to pass on Quaise. Their valuation at the time didn’t make sense to me.

Welp, Quaise just raised another $134 million for their Series B, proving that I need to get familiar with large numbers that my brain can’t comprehend.

Anyway, here is what Quaise does:

• Drills super deep holes into the earth

• Pumps water down the holes, where it gets superheated

• The superheated fluid is then pumped back to the surface, where it drives conventional steam turbines

• The technology can be plugged into existing thermal power plants

It’s basically a steam engine using the earth’s naturally hot core. The concept is simple, but the logistics and technology to make it happen are extremely difficult to pull off.

Will Quaise be able to make this all happen?

It’s looking really positive as of lately. Here’s why…

Oil Wells, Ironically

On January 20th of last year, President Trump declared a national energy emergency. Within that declaration are all kinds of emergency approvals that you can read about here.

Among the many announcements that followed this declaration, a specific press release from the Department of the Interior went relatively unnoticed:

One of the interesting things about this announcement, and what certain States have worked on, is that abandoned oil wells can be repurposed for geothermal energy developments.

Oklahoma has already gone ahead and created the “Well Repurposing Act.”

Instead of oil companies and the government having to spend millions (probably billions) in cleaning up old oil wells throughout the country, they are now trying to auction them off to geothermal energy companies to be repurposed.

If properly executed, this would position the US as a major energy producer, especially within the geothermal category.

How to Invest in the Geothermal Boom

Looking beyond Quaise, there are actually quite a few public companies that have direct and indirect exposure to the growing geothermal power industry.

Even the companies that don’t have “pure geothermal” business could see large upside in the coming years as geothermal project demand is increasing significantly.

Here are the 5 most interesting publicly traded companies working in the geothermal power generation industry:

Read more

I’ll save you the tales of secret point breaks controlled by drug cartels for another time, and share the ridiculous real estate deals I found everywhere.

Looking back at this time period it’s difficult to fully explain what was happening with the global property market. Most people think about the widely publicized fall out within the US. Movies like The Big Short highlighted the insanity that led to one of the biggest market bubbles of all time.

But most people don’t think of (or even know) what happened in other countries. It would be a massive understatement to say that there were fire sale prices.

Here are three examples of what I encountered:

• El Salvador: Passed on a $30,000 beach front house in El Zonte (now known as “Bitcoin Beach”), which recently sold for $1,200,000.

• Peru: Passed on a $65,000 apartment in Punta Hermosa, just south of Lima, which is now listed for $900,000.

• Costa Rica: Passed on a $200,000 10 hectare lot of land near Dominical, which is now subdivided into 100 lots of homes that are selling for more than $1 million each!

It’s easy too look back now and have regret, but I know I wouldn’t have ridden that price appreciation journey to where it is now.

But I did get pretty close in Panama…

Price to Sales Ratio in Panama

There’s a remote beach town in Panama that was nothing more than mangroves, mosquitoes, and good waves about 20 years ago.

Then, someone bought a small section of beachfront land and filled in all of the swamp area with dirt and set up a bohemian beach bar. They charged an outrageous $5 per beer and served fried yuca with hot sauce.

This beach front oasis was literally the only game in town and it attracted every surfer and expat jungle creature from a 50 mile radius.

A year later, as the bar got busier, the beers doubled in price.

This went on for a couple more years until an investor came in and paid an obscene price for the lot, which was still the only dry piece of land on the mangrove infested coastline.

This investor didn’t care about the current sales this bar was doing. He just knew he could make a lot more money than the current bar operation.

This story repeated itself at least a dozen times more, over the next couple of years, with beach lots adjacent to the first one.

Each time, an investor would pay an ever higher price for the land, because they knew that the beach front location would pay off.

More people were visiting the beach, more alcohol and food was being sold, and they could continue to raise prices.

It got to a point where these lots, all next to each other on the same stretch of beach, were selling for millions.

The price to sales ratio didn’t matter. The margins and growth just continued to expand.

Then, a big buyer came in.

Subscribe now

Price to Sales - It Finally Matters

One of those later buyers was Selina Hostels.

They were like the WeWork of global hostels. In fact, one of their earliest investors was Adam Neumann, the founder of WeWork. (I actually met Adam in Panama at the place I am talking about now.)

Selina eventually went public with a $1.2bn valuation.

And then they went bankrupt.

What happened on that Panama beach was a classic story of supply and demand.

The early property buyers were able to print money by having a monopoly over selling beer on the beach.

Then competitors came in, which naturally lowered prices as consumers looked for the best bang for their buck.

The value of each piece of land eventually had to relate to how much money could be made from a business operating there.

In the early stages, the price to sales ratio doesn’t matter. There is enough growth, with huge margins, to justify paying wild prices - the margins and growth would take care of the rest.

But in the later stages, the price to sales ratio is extremely important. There comes a point where growth slows and margins compress.

Today, in July of 2026, the price to sales ratio of the S&P 500 is at 3.7 - the highest in recorded history by a long shot.

The question is, where are we at in this cycle?

And, yes, I sold out way too early. I should’ve sold to Selina!

I think you’ll find some of the commentary interesting, especially the parallels of today with two specific time periods in history.

As much risk as I see in certain areas of the market, there is an equal amount of opportunity that is being completely ignored right now. Actually, it’s not being ignored… It’s being punished.

That trend will eventually reverse.

Below is most of that update (I’ve removed the fund specific information).

I cannot begin this update without reviewing the macro environment of our world. This isn’t to state the obvious, but instead to document where my head is at and also serve as material that I can reflect on. I’ve found that reading past investment ideas and market thoughts helps put future situations in perspective. Today, in July of 2026, this is especially true.

I’m going to highlight and summarize eight different topics which are all driving markets in different ways and relate to each other to varying degrees.

Artificial intelligence: It’s clear that AI is here and we are starting to get a preview of what the impacts will be. There is no other market theme that even comes close to the current AI narrative. This is important to note, as investors are currently digesting and chasing the different themes that AI will affect. Currently, we seem to be transitioning from the hyperscalers to the memory companies, while the next theme could be anything from biotech, to metals, to energy.

Iran: “What just happened between Iran and the US, and what is going to happen next?” If you asked this question to 100 different people, you’d probably get 100 different answers. There are obvious perspective differences based on political affiliation and general world views, which will influence one’s opinion on the Iran topic. But I believe access and consumption of information is more important than anything else. The reality is that each country, each age group, each political party, and each religious group is getting served a different narrative. Is the war with Iran about nuclear weapons? Is it about oil? Is it about regional security and Israel’s influence? Is it about a bigger picture where the US is attempting to interrupt a larger chess game going on with Russia and China? Or is it all of the above, mixed in with 4th Turning elements? Whichever it is, I believe there is much, much more to come and the market has not even come close to properly processing what is transpiring (especially with energy).

China: The China topic within most US social circles has somewhat disappeared. Taiwan, tariffs, and semiconductor worries have mostly been replaced with Venezuela, Iran, and World Cup debates. I expect the China conversations to reemerge soon.

Latin America: I’ve written about this extensively over the past couple of months. In short, Latin America is swinging right which is mostly favorable for the US. Brazil is the only major country yet to change direction, and it’s possible that they will remain under Lula leadership (or someone similar) during the next election cycle. The entire Latin America story is interesting for two main reasons: 1. There are many undervalued companies that could have real legs if Latin governments allow them to actually run. 2. The strengthening of relations between the US and Latin America provides tailwinds for US industries and challenges for China.

Russia: As I mentioned above about the different information streams related to war, I am no more qualified to analyze the Russia/Ukraine situation than you. Having visited Ukraine multiple times, I have my personal opinions about what’s going on, but in terms of war tactics and likely outcomes I’m just a part of the audience. Recently, it appears that Ukraine is having success using long range drones and weapons within Russia, while Russia has retaliated with strikes on Kyiv residential buildings. The reason I mention this is because this would have been major news in the US media a little while ago. Now, it’s a third page newspaper article. Like the China topic, this war has mostly been forgotten by the US investing community.

Betting: It seems that everywhere I look I see some kind of advertisement for a betting platform. Whether it’s sports, politics, weather, the number of times Elon Musk tweets in a month, or the length of a handshake between Trump and Putin - if you can think of it, you can probably bet on it. I’m not entirely sure what to think of it all. My free-market mind thinks this is healthy and allows information to be publicly debated. But another part of my mind thinks that this is all toxic behavior and is encouraging market participants to expect quick, and large outcomes. Overall, I think that betting culture is a direct result of a younger population simultaneously feeling the need to catch up and lacking patience.

US Monetary Policy: Let me just start with saying that I do not envy Warsh. No matter what he does, or doesn’t do, the critiques will be loud. Without some sort of enormous overhaul, the entire Federal Reserve system is destined to fail. But that could be hundreds of years from now, as the US Federal Reserve does not even rank in the top 30 oldest central banks in the world (the oldest is Sweden’s “Sveriges Riksbank” founded in 1668). Despite the Fed’s relatively youthful age, the Federal Reserve is by far the most important central bank in the world. I am not making a specific prediction, but if there was going to be a material ‘overhaul’ now would be the time. What that overhaul could be is anyone’s guess, but I would argue that the current administration (both outside and inside the Fed) is the most likely to make this happen in a very long time.

Energy and Real World Assets: The closing of the Strait of Hormuz is being called the largest energy supply disruption in the history of the world. Yet, many oil and gas companies are trading for the same price they were a year ago - some companies are actually down year to date. The same can be said for many real world assets, much of which rely on energy to operate or to be manufactured. Some are yelling that the energy market is being manipulated by propaganda and false narratives, which is probably true. Others are arguing that AI will enable the world to extract natural resources much more efficiently and economically, so there is less value in companies tied to commodity prices. Maybe that’s true too.

What you should notice about each of the above topics is that most of them have a highly likely long term result that is being ignored by the market. This situation reminds me of the saying “Do you want to be right, or do you want to make money?” This term was made famous by Ned Davis who wrote the book, Being Right or Making Money. He argued that focusing on predicting the future rather than following what is actually working is how many investors can get themselves in trouble.

While I agree with this sentiment in general, there is a trap that an investor can fall into as they constantly chase what’s working. They become a trader instead of an investor, chasing trends and narratives while ignoring valuations and risks. This chasing eventually requires rapid rollover into new positions that are working, as they panic sell out of positions that are not working. We are seeing this right now with the AI trade, as investors continue to reallocate into (or out of) the next ‘thing’ that AI will disrupt.

The above historical Shiller PE ratio chart displays this scenario playing out in real time. The current valuation in 2026 is getting pushed close to the dot com era high, and has already far surpassed the 1929 stock market crash.

To help put this all into context, let’s take a quick look back at both prior events to understand this capital rotation phenomenon.

1929: Most people know about Radio Corporation of America (RCA) or Leveraged Investment Trusts that were absolutely wiped out during the 1929 stock market crash. But what often gets ignored are the companies that saw significant draw downs before the crash. Companies within the meatpacking industry, the sugar industry, and the agricultural sector saw enormous drawdowns leading up to 1929, and then went on to see the quickest most dramatic gains once the market recovered.

2000: Again, most people think about all of the dot-com companies that went bust during this time period. Meanwhile, REITs, the financial sector, and consumer staples were beat up badly. Most notably, Berkshire Hathaway saw a ~50% decline from 1998 until the dot com bubble burst on March 11, 2000. Then, from March 11 until December 31 of 2000, Berkshire shares rallied 72% while the Nasdaq fell 51%.

2026: A very similar pattern seems to be materializing with quality companies that are considered boring or irrelevant. As mentioned earlier, energy is a great example as it’s currently the cheapest sector in the market despite recent global supply disruptions and insatiable demand far into the future. Outside of energy, Berkshire has traded sideways for the past year and many consumer staple giants are down 30% or more over the past couple of years.

To be clear, I am not calling for a market crash. Whether highly valued AI related companies can continue their growth story is not what I am focused on. Instead, I am pointing out the high quality companies that the market is choosing to neglect for the time being.

Reach out if you’re an accredited investors and you’d like more information about Catch Swell Capital, L.P.

A quick story to bring us all back down to earth, during these unprecedented times of geopolitical, economic, and emotional bewilderment.

My six-year-old son stood to my left, reeling and pulling with all his might, laughing with every massive tug. Just down the beach to my right was a man in his eighties, doing the exact same thing.

Separated by seven decades, both were experiencing the identical thrill of battling an unseen sea monster.

Statistically, the young and the old fish the most. The younger generation brings boundless optimism, believing every single cast will yield the catch of the day. The older generation possesses the patient wisdom to persevere through the long, quiet lulls.

Crucially, both groups also have the most free time.

Conversely, people aged 45 to 55 fish the least. This middle-aged group is simply too busy raising families, paying bills, and managing the stress of an impending mid-life crisis.

Ironically, this exact demographic also faces the highest rate of bankruptcy, which peaks at age 49. At this stage in life, the compounding effects of poor decisions or bad luck seem to collide into a major financial crisis.

Yet, these same stressed, time-starved individuals make up the majority of investing professionals. The people carrying the heaviest burdens are the ones making the most consequential financial decisions for their clients, their families, and themselves.

They are constantly running on a treadmill.

In America, we have a unique phrase for this frantic state of being: “chasing tail.”

If you are pursuing romance, you are chasing tail. If you are hunting or fishing, you are chasing tail. And if you are incredibly busy but accomplishing absolutely nothing, you are also chasing tail.

My son and that elderly man were happily chasing tail on the beach. Meanwhile, the vast majority of finance professionals are chasing tail in a much more stressful way.

We are currently navigating one of the most chaotic investment environments in modern history. Hype and narratives, rather than true financial fundamentals, are driving the markets. As a result, investors are spinning in circles, chasing their own tails with increasing speed.

If you are going to head out and chase tail, just make sure you aren’t chasing your own.

Before I dive into the specific ‘weird company’ that I shared, I want discuss two obvious but under the radar themes that are unfolding in our world right now.

The first theme has to do with an article that I wrote back in April of this year.

Most people won’t take the time to fully digest everything that I laid out. I intertwined history with geopolitics and eluded to the fact that our current world is echoing a time period that has already been experienced.

It’s a long read, which is not the typical bite-sized information nugget that investors are looking for today.

I doubled down on the story, which is that Latin America is changing for reasons that are more obvious than the accepted obvious reason, in this article here:

In short, the media likes to report that Latin America is swinging to conservative elected leaders because of far-right narratives spewed out by Trump.

This is an easy propagandist message because anti-Trump messaging gets clicks and the media survives on the click-ity people.

The more obvious explanation of why Latin America is swinging to the right has less to do with Trump and more to do with the hatred of collectivism.

You can ask any American immigrant from Cuba, Venezuela, Myanmar, or other communist-ish dictatorship why they came to the US and their answers will generally be the same: That shit just doesn’t work.

So it shouldn’t be a surprise when the voting constituents of El Salvador, Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, and many more finally changed their minds and decided it was time to try something new… Try something that the world’s largest economy thrives on.

But not all of Latin America has made this shift yet. The transformation is still underway and with these current and upcoming changes new opportunities are revealing themselves in real time.

Finally, Colombia Says ENOUGH!

My presentation in NYC was about a Colombian company that is in one of the most boring industries you can imagine.

However, I didn’t pick the company just because it’s boring, has great financials, and is positioned for massive upside. Those are all great reasons, but they don’t tell the full story.

I picked this Colombian company because there was an impending catalyst that just occurred two days ago.

Abelardo de la Espriella, who is labeled as a far-right Trump-backed politician is now set to become Colombia’s next President.

The best way to describe the platform he ran on would be to look at Argentina’s Milei and El Salvador’s Bukele - both of which are tremendously controversial leaders on the world stage, but who have both made objectively large positive changes for their respective countries.

Will Espriella follow the same path as these two leaders?

I spoke with a couple friends who live in Colombia and have significant involvement in the local economy. Both stated that they were cautiously optimistic.

Investors seem to be optimistic too, as they’ve bid up Colombia’s major oil producer Ecopetrol , making it one of the best performing oil equities of 2026.

Boring Getting Blasted

The second theme I want to touch on is the aversion to boring companies that global investors currently have.

In a world of constant information flow and desires for instant gratification, it should come as no surprise that high growth companies are demanding enormous valuations in the first half of 2026.

Simultaneously, boring companies are getting absolutely obliterated.

Two weeks ago I mentioned several companies that highlight what I’m talking about:

At surface level, it all makes sense. Why would an investor want to park capital in archaic companies that lack the explosive growth of the new-kids-on-the-block?

This scenario of investors chasing ever growing companies - both in size and valuation - has an obvious end result which is rooted in capitalism and supply and demand economics: Eventually, the trend will change.

But the party goes on for now and only the boring nerds who are allergic to hangovers are heading for the exits.

Tucked in bed before 10pm, this group of dorks are sure to be missing the climax of the late night debauchery.

The next morning will be time for all previous-night partygoers to collect their thoughts and pursue their next actions. Some will be better prepared than others.

The Cali Cartel Connected Colombian Company

Overlooking Tribeca, I explained to the private audience that Mamdani is going to be responsible for part of this Colombian company’s success.

In addition to the many dozens of skyscrapers being erected across South Florida, there are now eight supertall buildings going up - that is, buildings over 1,000 feet.

The companies constructing these buildings, and the companies that will inhabit them, are all part of a migration across the US.

People, corporations, and emotions literally voting with their feet.

With this change in tide, investors can pick many winners that stand in this path of progress, no matter how boring the opportunities may seem.

My pick, which involves the previously mentioned change in Colombia, the Cali Cartel, Mamdani’s not-so-wise-words, and an allergy to boring products, is now being bought up by company insiders at a rapid pace.

These inside buyers have only bought one other time - right before this company’s share price went up by 400% within 2 years.

Even more interesting, the family that founded this company are masters at currency arbitrage.

And look at where the Colombian Peso is at:

The strongest its been in over 5 years.

It’s obvious why company insiders are buying. They know they have a great company and the macro environment is just making the situation better.

This company is primed to rip.

Read more

This was the last stop of the Weird Shit Investing Conference that my good friend Swen Lorenz has been putting on for the past three years.

In addition to my presentation (more on that soon), I heard about unique asymmetric investments that included:

• A network of undervalued cellphone towers across Africa ripe for a major acquisition

• A copper miner in Europe with major reserves, and a pending legal settlement with Poland that could be more than the entire market cap of the company

• A crash course on why insider buying and stock buybacks (from ) could actually be negative indicators

• And many more…

Having attended this conference in the past, there was one thing that stuck out more this year than any other: some things are really cheap.

But you wouldn’t think that if you were just looking at the AI trend and listening to mainstream commentary.

As my friend and fellow presenter, Wyatt Sparks, said: “Boring is weird.”

Value Trap Anonymous

I started my presentation with a joke that everyone at the conference was delusional about the value based companies they thought were great investments.

The joke wasn’t so much about all of the attendees, but more about the state of the market.

The reality is that many of the most valuable companies in the world are trading with valuations that just don’t make sense.

Meanwhile, companies that have been around for decades, and are nearly guaranteed to be around for many more, are trading like they’re about to die.

But that’s just how markets go.

Narratives can grab hold of investor’s minds to create momentum that seems unstoppable… Until it stops.

Make sure, in these times of intoxicating narratives, you are exposing yourself to those who challenge the mainstream trend.

This is not a call to be contrarian for the sake of being different, but instead for the sake of safety.

Next week I’ll share my “Weird Shit Investing” presentation. It involves the Cali Cartel, a CEO shot in the head, and a 40 year dynasty that is being catalyzed by Mayor Mamdani.

In 2006 I had spent several months outside of the US - mostly in Latin America and Asia - and then returned to Los Angeles.

I remember leaving LAX, driving down Lincoln Boulevard, thinking to myself, “Wow! It’s so clean! There’s no trash anywhere and the roads are so nice!”

To be clear, no American who has ever driven down Lincoln thinks that that road is nice. It’s congested, dirty, and chaotic. But relative to all of the countries I had just spent time in, the street looked great.

It took months of traveling in third world countries for my brain to realize how nice the US is.

What Are We Doing to Ourselves?

Yesterday, I took my daughter to a summer tutoring session at a local college library.

As we walked in the front door, my eyes were immediately drawn to a display of books that were impossible to miss.

It was basically a display of divisive ‘literature’ that someone in the library thought was important for all college students to be reading.

As I pulled out my phone to take the above picture, I gazed over to the library checkin counter. Right behind the counter was an office with a rainbow flag hanging over a Che Guevara poster.

It was the most stereotypical US educational environment I could think of.

The European Mind and the US World Cup

There’s this German guy named Freddy that is driving around the US to see a bunch of World Cup games.

He’s documenting his journey on X (you can see it here), and has become somewhat of a viral celebrity.

Basically, he’s blown away with all of the nice things that he finds in America. Free soda refills, delicious BBQ, enormous stadiums, safe roads, beautiful nature, and most importantly, incredibly friendly and giving Americans helping him with his entire journey.

It’s not just Freddy.

There are thousands of videos circulating right now that show tourists being completely amazed with how nice America is.

They are shocked to find out how warm and hospitable Americans are.

Check out this video of a South African guy who can’t believe what he’s experiencing. This guy should be given US citizenship just for this video.

Why are Americans focused on divisive doomer culture? Or is it just the media and a small minority that is spewing this negativity?

Are the vast majority of Americans hard working, positive minded, forward thinking, genuinely giving, happy people?

Yes.

You just don’t hear about them, because they don’t drive clicks.

America On Sale

US stock markets are overvalued, US government debt is unsustainable, and we have a declining cultural value system.

Sounds bad. Really bad.

But it’s a thousand times better than anything else in the world.

The only people who understand this are the ones who have lived and experienced everything else.

America definitely isn’t perfect, but we still have an incredibly bright future ahead.

Now is the time to double down on the core American opportunities that are available nowhere else in the world.

I like to say, “My heart and soul is in the California, but my brain is in Florida.”

However you put it, the Golden State is hard to fit in a box.

• The State has one of the largest economies in the world, yet they went from a $100 billion surplus in 2022 to a $14 billion deficit in 2026.

• California has one of the most cut-throat capitalist business centers in the entire world (Silicon Valley), yet Sacramento has created one of the highest taxed and regulated jurisdictions you’ll find anywhere.

• The population loves freedom and walks around barefoot in nature, yet they also vote for a nanny-like government that provides everything from free needles to drug addicts to free healthcare for illegal immigrants.

But I don’t need to tell you all of this. California’s reputation within the US, and globally, is that the State is a laughingstock and at the same time a pillar for innovation.

It’s bizarre.

The weather and geography is probably to blame. It’s just so damn beautiful there that people - both the good and bad - can’t resist eating the forbidden fruit.

California Trippin’

I just returned last night from spending 10 days in my home state. I took my kids on our semi-annual California tour, visiting all of our friends and family.

It was great. We got fun surf, ate amazing food, and enjoyed the June gloom.

The trip was also a much needed disconnect for me, as I got to step away from the computer and enjoy some amazing people watching.

I saw it all. The crackheads, the pierced-purple-heads, the hard-working blue collars, and the proverbial ‘hipster or homeless?’ jaywalkers.

Despite all of these interesting people, there was one overwhelming observation that stood out to me: They all still do normal things.

They buy food, medicine, soap, toothpaste, and some even buy toilet paper!

They talk about family problems, what the weather is going to be like, and argue about what to have for dinner.

During my entire trip I didn’t have one conversation about AI, data centers, or what iPhone was coming out next.

What I’m getting at is this: The world can be crazy. People can be crazy. And through all of that craziness, we often times forget about the important simple things right in front of us.

California was a great reminder for me.

Simple Stuff, On Sale

Ok, enough with the California rant, below are three ‘simple’ companies that are probably not going away in our lifetime.

There is, of course, a bear argument for each company, but I can’t see these three disappearing anytime soon.

Probably a good idea to keep these in mind… Especially when you see the valuation and yield they all have:

Pfizer

Forward P/E: 9

Yield: 7%

General Mills

Forward P/E: 10

Yield: 7%

ConAgra Brands

Forward P/E: 8

Yield: 10%

Let’s check in on these companies in five years.

I bet those crazy people in California will still be buying stuff from them!

Efficiency, consistency, real estate, innovation, and branding - supposedly those are the reasons why the world’s most valued restaurant chain has been successful.

I wouldn’t disagree with those strengths, but there is something else that has led to McDonald’s dominance more than anything else: demographics.

Feeding both baby boomers and their kids, McDonald’s has ridden the demographics wave nearly perfectly.

McDonald’s first flourished in a country with not just a growing population, but a growing consumer population.

During their rapid expansion phase, from 1970-1990, the company’s share price rose by over 65,000%!

Since 1990, has “only” returned an annualized 12%.

With over 45,000 locations around the world, McDonald’s will probably dominate for many more years to come. But, when it comes to rapid growth, the burger giant is starting to run out of markets to saturate.

Furthermore, although the company is currently attractively valued compared to the rest of the stock market, there are far better options out there.

That’s especially true when you start to look at Asia, and especially China...

China is Slowing, but Buyers are Growing

Despite all of the doom and gloom, at least from a Westerner’s perspective, there is no doubt that China is still an economic behemoth.

Although China’s GDP growth has slowed down, especially compared to growth rates of regional peers, their total GDP is still massive.

In fact, if you added up all of the Asia-Pacific economies together, they still wouldn’t be as large as China’s.

China’s slowing economic growth ignores what that growth is actually achieving: An increase in consumer spending from hundreds of millions of people.

Even with China’s population decline, total private consumption is expected to boom over the coming years.

This story of a rising consumer class is nearly identical to the United States post WWII.

And, as I showed with McDonald’s, some of the companies best situated to benefit from this consumer spending boom are restaurants that exhibit the same qualities of:

• Efficiency

• Consistency

• Real estate

• Innovation

• Branding

Before we dive into those companies, what has caused this dislocation?

Double Contrarian: China Consumer Cyclical

While one could speculate about weak consumer habits, as seen in the K-shaped economy, there is a more likely culprit: Money is chasing tech and energy due to AI fueled mania and geopolitical chaos.

The companies operating in the consumer cyclical sector appear to have relatively little upside and are simply boring.

In reality, many of these boring companies are seeing impressive, consistently growing earnings.

Then, when we look at China, the weakness within this sector is exacerbated.

China is certainly slowing down, but it’s still growing. It’s valuation is relatively cheap, and so are the companies that are profitably operating and expanding within the Asian nation.

Now let’s check out three Chinese food companies that are drastically cheaper than their US peers despite arguably better financials.

Each of these companies are virtually debt free with billions in cash just sitting there.

One of the companies has a forward P/E of 6!

A 10x in the coming years is a conservative possibility…

Read more

This is especially true when someone is trying to justify an investment thesis they currently believe in, or are trying to sell.

The backflips someone will go through to explain why they are correct is often times laughable (I’ve been guilty of this plenty of times).

That’s one of the reasons why novice and expert investors have long respected the quotable wisdom that has come from Buffet and Munger.

Their overall investing strategy is quite simple: buy value based companies that you can understand for the long term and stay patient.

Warren’s most recent explanation for why Berkshire is holding so much cash is equally as simple: despite the recent market pull back, things are still expensive.

This sentiment, at least for the past year, has been in direct opposition with the general market who have been entrenched in the ‘AI trade.’

It’s hard to deny the recent success of this positioning. Artificial Intelligence really is starting to disrupt many parts of our daily lives. It’s very easy to imagine how these disruptions will eventually engulf the entire world.

But recent geopolitical and market developments are pushing back on this AI narrative.

The question, at least for the short term, is which will prevail?: The virtual world, or the physical world?

And equally as important: How many complications do we need to consider to forecast what comes next?

Virtual vs. Reality

For the sake of what I’m about to lay out, let’s make two assumptions:

1. Virtual = the impacts of technology, like AI, to all things that we can’t physically touch or extract from the earth.

2. Reality = all of the everyday things that our bodies physically come into contact with, including the materials that are pulled out of the earth to build our societies.

I don’t think anyone would disagree about the success the virtual world has seen over the past several decades. A mind-boggling amount of value has been built in the virtual world which has created enormous benefits for humanity, and investors.

But the success of the virtual world has mostly come at a huge expense for the real world.

Energy, agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and all kinds of physical world sectors have been ignored and starved of capital over the past decade.

Their capex cycle of the 1900’s has appeared to pause… for now.

Tech vs. Energy

The comparison of tech and energy capex is most blatant… especially since they directly relate to each other.

Capex across tech companies continues to outpace industry projections (as seen from the above 2024 article that underestimated the below chart’s data), which investors seem to embrace.

Meanwhile, the companies that produce energy (especially natural gas) have seen an ever decreasing amount of capex.

I’ll admit that this is a bit of an apples and oranges comparison, because the correlation to oil/gas and tech isn’t 100%.

But I chose to juxtapose these two sectors because they highlight boom and bust cycles perfectly.

Keeping It Simple

Everything mentioned above does not suggest that the AI investment trend is overvalued and ready to crash.

It might be, but that’s not what I’m proposing here. (I already made a valuation argument here.)

Instead, I’m pointing out that there are hated sectors of the market that are near the trough of a capex cycle, while there are loved sectors of the market that are near the peak of their capex cycle.

The companies near the tough are trading for earnings multiples in the single digits. Their production capacity is constrained, which will eventually squeeze their product’s prices much higher.

The companies near the peak are trading for high double digit earnings multiples. Their production capacity is rapidly expanding, which will eventually bring more product to market, lowering prices.

NOTE: I’m going to be writing some shorter, easier to digest reports in the coming weeks.

If you like these shorter versions, give this article a ❤️ to let me know.

Here’s this report’s investment thesis: Data Centers ➡️ Energy ➡️ Nickel

In 2011, legendary investor Kyle Bass bought 20 million nickels for $1 million. The media considered it a novelty investment and most people laughed at his purchase.

At the time, the intrinsic value of a nickel was 6.8 cents. So, his $1 million stash of coins was really worth $1,360,000.

If he melted the coins down for their metal value, that would be an immediate 36% gain on his investment.

Not bad.

Of course it’s illegal to melt US coinage, and there are other costs associated with actually melting and storing the coins and metals.

But you get the point.

Fast forward to 2022, when the price of nickel spiked, his stash was worth $3,200,000. That’s a $2,200,000 profit over 11 years, for an annualized return of 20%.

Today in 2026 the nickel price has retreated, but a single US nickel’s melt value is still around 7.4 cents.

Is it time to start stacking nickels again?

If you think the world is going to need more energy, then yes…

What’s Nickel Used for Anyway?

We use nickel for pretty much everything.

It’s found in almost every type of metal that you touch everyday and is used in all types of industrial processes.

The category that is most interesting going forward is nickel’s use in batteries and solid oxide fuel cells.

I’ll skip batteries for now. I’ll be writing a lot more about the use cases of batteries in the near future and why they are especially interesting in the coming years.

Solid oxide fuel cells could be a huge driver for nickel consumption.

Beyond projections, the market is telling us the same thing…

Nickel Price Arbitrage

See that graphic above that shows the anode, electrolyte, cathode sandwich?

Up to 50% of the anode can be nickel.

So, for solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC’s) nickel is extremely important.

Recently, there have been two publicly traded SOFC companies that have gone parabolic: Bloom Energy and FuelCell Energy .

The chart above shows FuelCell in red and Bloom Energy in green.

The blue line is the nickel miner ETF .

Of course there are supply and demand economics that come along with nickel, which I’ll dive into soon.

Until then, consider this: Indonesia is the world’s number one producer and refiner of nickel, but a long shot. Here is the Indonesia ETF :

The last two times Indonesia was this oversold, the ETF went on to rally ~100% over the next two years.

Is this time different?

Give me a ❤️ or 🔁 if you enjoyed this.

If you’re an accredited investor and you’re interested in my fund where I pursue these exact opportunities, contact me here:

Yes, that Oppenheimer.

We got paired up by attrition.

I had several close friends scheduled to travel with me from Los Angeles to El Salvador, but they backed out a week before our flight was set to take off.

Their families didn’t feel comfortable with them traveling to one of the most dangerous places on earth.

El Salvador was a no-go location.

Just a couple months before I was scheduled to fly to the Central American country, the FBI created the MS-13 National Gang Task Force.

This was in 2004.

Our El Salvadorian welcoming party.

After my friends backed out I called Oppy, knowing that he might jump at the chance to go on a last minute surf trip.

I was desperate for a travel buddy who could share the potential risks I was facing.

Oppy got held up at security in LAX before we got on the plane. The drug dogs singled him out and he got pulled off into secondary. I’ve never seen that for leaving the US - only when you come back into the country.

I boarded the flight thinking I was going by myself.

When I landed in San Salvador, there was an all-white plane parked next to my now defunct TACA Airlines A320.

There was a stream of men walking down mobile stairs from the white US Government airplane directly to the tarmac. All of the men were dressed in street clothes, with no visible security monitoring them.

Turns out that was one of the early ICE deportation flights running in the early 2000’s, where deportees were simply dropped off in their home country… Many of those deportees would be back in the United States within a matter of months.

It was a circular game of cat and mouse.

When I finally made it through El Salvadorian customs and picked up my board bag, Oppy mysteriously appeared out of nowhere dragging his own board bag behind him.

Maybe the security at LAX figured it’d be easier to just let him go to El Salvador instead of deal with him back in the US… he was deporting himself.

This was over 20 years ago, when El Salvador was still a very dangerous place to go.

But, as any committed surfer knows, that’s usually what comes with the territory when you look for great waves.

Rock Bottom Latin America

I have repeated different varieties of my first El Salvador trip throughout the rest of Latin America over the past two decades. (But just that one with Oppy!)

Peru, Colombia, Chile, Panama, Nicaragua, Guyana, and many more…

There’s no nice way of saying it: They’re all screwed up.

I’ve been robbed by the police in Managua, extorted by jungle gorillas in Parque Tayrona, and attacked by a drunk meth addict in Pavones, to name a few encounters.

Blame it on the Spanish colonialism; or the US regime change imperialism; or the insatiable demand that fuels illicit drug production; or the never-ending attempts of different flavors of Peronism.

Three steps forward, two steps back.

It’s incredibly frustrating when you think about the potential of this region:

• Latin America is religiously homogeneous, with 90% of the population identifying as Christian.

• They have an incredible work ethic, putting in more hours than nearly every other first world nation.

• Their land is incredibly resource rich with oil, timber, copper, gold, silver, lithium, water, and every other element you can think of.

Could this part of the world finally see a turn around?

Latin America Goes Right

You may have seen the recent news about the riots going on in Bolivia.

The former socialist president, Evo Morales, is being accused of rallying protestors to disrupt the newly elected right-leaning President Rodrigo Paz Pereira.

But the story is much more complicated than that.

Leftist groups from Cuba, Mexico, Colombia, and other left leaning countries are likely aiding the Bolivian protestors in their attempts to overthrow the new leadership. It’s likely that the Chinese, Iranians, and Russians are helping their efforts.

The only country that has recently, and noticeably, changed direction is Argentina under the leadership of Javier Milei.

Meanwhile, Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua have proven what the world has known for centuries - socialism and communism just don’t work. Ever.

Then you have countries like Ecuador, Colombia, Brazil, Peru, and Chile that have gone through decades of leadership whiplash.

Here is the net result of all of this: Millions of angry people are voting for the only political system that has been proven to work - the one that all first world nations subscribe to.

Over the past couple of years Argentina, Costa Rica, Chile, Bolivia, Ecuador, Honduras, and most notably, El Salvador, have all shifted to the right.

And if this trend continues, there are going to be ENORMOUS opportunities for investors - more than there already are.

Primed for Profits

The irony of the riots going on in Bolivia right now should not be ignored.

The rioters are fighting the new government because they think the right wing leadership will exploit the people and resources of the country, leaving the people underserved and ignored.

In reality, that is what has been going on for decades under the left wing leadership that has led Bolivia to economic crisis.

Even more ironic, the rioters don’t understand that the only way that outside investors will benefit from providing capital to Bolivia is if the actual people of the country are lifted up and are successful themselves.

It’s a classic example of how emotional narratives can completely distort the rational principles of economics. Mamdani has done a fantastic job of showing how that works.

Anyway… There are several countries in Latin America that are primed for real economic booms because the populations within those countries may see incredible windfalls in the coming years.

This will mostly be happening because of rising commodity prices. These countries are rich with copper, lithium, zinc, and all of the minerals that are in demand for the build out of the global AI economy.

It helps that over 30% of gold and silver deposits are also found in Latin America.

Rising commodity prices will lift Latin American economies.

Don’t Over Think It

There are hundreds of interesting companies to invest in right now that do business throughout Latin America.

You could go after the tech names like Mercado Libre , dLocal , Nubank , StoneCo , XP , Liberty Latin America , and many others.

Or you could chase the mining and energy companies like Petrobras , Ecopetrol , YPF , or Vale .

You could make it easier on yourself and just go after the country ETF’s like , , or .

Or you can make it REALLY easy on yourself and just go after the Latin America ETF .

Literally every single one of these companies (except for a couple of the tech companies) are trading at insanely low valuations and have broken out of long term downward trends.

The early investors are already diving in head first.

And, as I mentioned last week, there are more countries starting to open up:

Where are you going to fall on the adoption curve?

Give me a ❤️ or 🔁 if you enjoyed this.

If you’re an accredited investor and you’re interested in my fund, where I pursue these exact opportunities, contact me here:

“Not only should the lonely and uncomfortable position be tolerated, it should be celebrated.”

-Howard Marks

I love extremes and outliers. It's what makes the world interesting and investing lucrative.

I’ve said that many times over the past decade.

Most recently, it was in October of last year when I said you should sell your precious metals for oil.

At the time gold, silver, and platinum were ripping to all time highs. Meanwhile, oil was $60 a barrel and everyone assumed it’d stay that way.

No one wanted to touch oil. I did.

I even went to Canada to investigate their oil and gas industry. It was a great, freezing trip.

Since then, metals have retreated and oil is now over $100 a barrel.

Selling your metals for oil was a great trade.

Now there’s a new one.

Check out this chart:

This is a 35 year chart showing the correlation between oil and natural gas.

Oil has surged while natural gas has done… nothing.

This chart says natural gas is dirt cheap compared to oil.

Generationally cheap.

Not only that, but natural gas is hated right now.

Here are just some of the reasons why investors hate natural gas:

• Natural gas is known as the ‘widow maker’ because of its extreme and unpredictable volatility.

• The US is awash is natural gas.

• The more you drill for oil, especially in the Permian, the more natural gas you get.

• The world has far more supply than demand.

Those are all fair points that have historically been mostly correct.

But there is a difference between supply and getting the supply to market. Just go ask bottled water companies.

More importantly, there have been structural changes to the global natural gas market.

Is this time different?

Possibly.

Natural Gas & Global Macro Perspective

Two weeks ago I wrote an in depth report about how the United States is strategically entangling allies and enemies with natural gas.

I explained the bigger picture and the fine details of how this plan has been in action over the past decade.

Now, in 2026, everything looks like it’s coming to a head… and natural gas is still CHEAP.

Of course there is no guarantee about where natural gas prices will go.

But from a risk/reward perspective, the current setup is extremely compelling.

Last week, I also wrote about the valuation arbitrage opportunities within the AI boom. Natural gas is, again, one of the most obvious benefactors.

Below you’ll see 20 visualizations to drive this opportunity home.

Short of banging my fist on the table, like I did with platinum and oil, there’s not much more I can say about this opportunity.

You decide…

The Natural Gas Opportunity in Images

Over 40% of US electricity generation comes from natural gas.

The narrative says that is going to change, as renewables take over.

The data says something different:

Electricity load in the US is increasing.

And so is natural gas consumption.

Wait until you see what happens when the US starts to re-industrialize and hundreds of new data centers come online.

The demand is going to explode by 2030, and beyond.

That’s because HUNDREDS of gigawatts are going to be in demand in the coming years, which will consume tens of BILLIONS of cubic feet of natural gas PER DAY.

And that’s just in the US.

Over in Europe, and other parts of the world that rely on imported US natural gas, demand is set to skyrocket.

The US is already the global powerhouse when it comes to exporting LNG.

That domination is only set to increase.

The US will export LNG everywhere, including the Caribbean.

And the domination is set to DOUBLE.

The contracts have already been signed.

This is happening.

But the demand will still be there.

Especially since the global natural gas market has changed significantly in 2026.

Conflict in the Middle East has positioned US natural gas exports to be in extreme demand.

Demand that seems to be growing each year.

Yet natural gas prices seem to be flat, for now.

That’s despite data from around the world showing there are real shortages coming.

Storage in the EU is trending towards an all time low over the past 15 years.

While withdrawals are trending to an all time high over the past 15 years.

Meanwhile, storage in the US is getting alarmingly low as well.

If you can’t string these images together to make a story within your head, I suggest you go read about the Donroe Doctrine and the US Natural Gas Strategy.

It’s one of the most obvious trends in motion today, and the opportunity is selling for fire sale prices.

Maybe that’s why one of the world’s greatest investors, who’s quote is at the top of this post, has allocated a major portion of his fund towards the US’s largest natural gas producer.

Give me a ❤️ or 🔁 if you enjoyed this.

If you’re an accredited investor and you’re interested in my fund, where I pursue these exact opportunities, contact me here:

I heard that in church a couple of weeks ago. (Don’t worry, this isn’t a church/religion post.)

That statistic is crazy. Yet, somewhat unsurprising.

Surface level interactions, like the scrolling and consumption of surface level information, seem to be rampant in today’s society.

We’re all looking for the quick hit, the dopamine spike, the immediate gratification.

Few of us are willing to spend the time to get a deeper understanding of anything, or anyone.

Does anyone do deep dives into information, or anyone, anymore?

Or do people just consume headlines and commentary from third parties, never getting to know the depth of what’s really going on?

Can This Narrative Get LOUDER?

I’m pretty good at using AI tools, compared to my peers.

But I have relatively no clue how the tech works.

I understand all of the vocabulary - data centers, tokens, LLM’s, OpenClaw, blah, blah, blah - and I understand the general big picture. I’m even fairly competent at vibe coding.

But I can’t tell you the finer details about why Anthropic is better than Gemini, or why Grok is cooler than OpenAI, or why Amazon’s $200 billion of capex is more strategic than Meta’s $130 billion.

I also can’t tell you how the circle jerk of financing between Nvidia, Oracle, AMD, etc. works.

Maybe it’s all so well thought out and sophisticated that I’m just too stupid to understand it all.

There’s a high possibility of that.

Here’s an example of what I’m talking about:

I understand what this chart is saying. I can even envision a scenario where this data center projection isn’t too outlandish.

The other megaprojects, like railroads and the highway system, were for physically stationed assets within the United States only.

So data centers, which can provide services to anywhere in the world, have a much larger TAM and their possible use cases are a bit broader. The world is also richer, even with inflation adjusted, so we can throw more money at things.

On top of all of that, everyone is saying that you just don’t understand what AI will do to the world.

It will disrupt driving, manufacturing, logistics, mining, communications - it’ll disrupt everything more than you can possibly imagine!

That’s why there’s still so much more room to run with this global AI build out. That’s why the line on that chart will continue to go straight up!

Whether that’s true or not, there’s still something big I don’t understand…

Valuations With High Expectations

Let’s start with the most obvious components of a data center: semiconductors.

For simplicity, we’ll just look at the Semiconductor ETF, instead of detailing each individual company. Here are the ETF’s holdings:

You can’t argue with the fund’s performance over the past 5 years, which has seen a 300% gain.

But its current valuation makes it one of the highest valued ETF’s on the market.

• Trailing P/E: ~50

• Forward P/E: ~40

While it’s certainly possible that the ETF constituents could grow into these earnings, it’s also possible that there’s significant downside risk if growth doesn’t keep accelerating.

Although most people only think of the costs of semiconductors inside data centers, they actually only make up ~50% of the total cost of the facility.

The rest of the costs go towards electrical power infrastructure, cooling and HVAC systems, construction, cables/fiber, and smaller miscellaneous expenses.

These could be considered the second order beneficiaries of the data center boom. As you’d expect, the top companies in each of those categories have benefitted immensely. Here are just several:

• Cooling: Trane Technologies (P/E = 36)

• Electrical: Eaton (P/E = 40)

• Construction: Emcor Group (P/E = 30)

• Cables/fiber: Corning (P/E = 100)

Arguably, the second order company valuations are even more stretched than the semiconductor companies!

With smaller margins, reliance on raw products that have volatile pricing, and one-off projects, it’s hard to see how these companies can maintain their growth.

But, let’s say they do.

Let’s assume that the next decade will see the same growth in data centers around the world. Let’s assume that trillions of dollars continue to flow into this industry.

It will all rely on raw and specialized materials, which are cheap right now…

Valuation Arbitrage

While technologies and companies will certainly change into the future, what they use to produce their products will not.

In the end, we’re all reliant on the atoms that our earth provides.

However these atoms are arranged - either naturally or synthetically - they are all extracted and gathered by companies that are mostly being ignored right now.

That’s surprising when you think about what goes into a data center:

It’s especially surprising when you think about what’s going on in the world right now: energy prices are surging, geopolitical relationships are strained, and traditional flows of global materials are coming to a grinding halt.

Meanwhile the companies that extract and bring those minerals to market are cheap!

Here are seven companies that are integral to the data center build out boom, but have mostly been ignored:

Read more

NOTE: This is one of the most important trends underway right now with an incredible risk/reward profile. Hardly anyone is talking about this. Below, you’ll learn about the broader story, see the hard data, and understand the compelling forecast that lies ahead.

As I wandered around the America House in Kyiv, I kept thinking to myself, ‘Why are my tax dollars funding this?!’

This was in 2020 - I was clearly oblivious to the bigger picture.

There were drinks, food, movies to watch, computers to use, classes to take, and more.

It was all free, and it was all really nice.

Then I learned there are two additional America Houses in Ukraine - one in Lviv and one in Odessa.

And then I learned there’s a lot more of these ‘America Houses’ around the world.

Over 700 more in 141 different countries.

Source: American Spaces

They’re technically called “American Spaces” and they are run by the US State Department.

These installations are basically on one end of the foreign influence spectrum - the soft power end.

They provide an American experience inside a foreign country, like dangling a carrot on a stick.

No one is going to say that out loud.

There will be plenty of people that will scoff at that statement and say something like, [in caveman voice] ‘Russia bad, Ukraine good, America need help more.’

What I’m about to explain here is not just about Ukraine and Russia.

Their war, as you’ll find out below, is actually a part of a much broader conflict that we’re all inadvertently a part of.

And much of it is underpinned by gas.

Natural gas.

Energy Builds Empires

Last year I found myself sitting inside the US Embassy in Georgetown, Guyana.

I had a meeting set up with the chargé d'affaires to see how they could support my possible investment into the country.

Several months prior, I had hosted an investment dinner at the historic Cara Lodge with guests from ExxonMobile, the US Embassy, and the Guyanese government.

It was clear - the Guyanese wanted our investment capital, and the US officials wanted us to make the investments happen.

While I was in the Embassy, there were all kinds of offers to help.

Assistance with importing Cessna airplanes, introductions to Guyanese government officials, and offers to meet with other US representatives working within Guyana.

The Americans wanted me to do business in Guyana.

Their motivations - as representatives of the United States government based in Guyana - were genuine and clear, but unspoken:

It’s a strategy that goes back more than a century.

The British used to be the best in the world at this strategy, then came the Americans… And now it’s the Chinese.

I explained this whole situation in depth recently:

Nearly every single society has done this at some point. The Egyptians, the Romans, the Spanish, the Portuguese, the Brits, the Germans, and on and on…

Historically, those resources and energy have meant different things.

Thousands of years ago, the resources were people and the energy was food.

Today, resources like rare earth metals have replaced much of the human capital component, while energy is more about electricity generation than food production.

And when it comes to electricity generation, there is one commodity that has become more important than any other…

Leveraging Natural Gas as a Geopolitical Tool

About two years ago - after my Ukraine trip, but before my Guyana venture - I stood in front of 50 members of a family office group in Washington D.C.

I was presenting an explanation about the domination that the US was developing in the natural gas market.

Specifically, I was explaining how the United States was making other countries reliant on US sourced natural gas.

That’s despite other countries having more natural gas reserves.

The US has achieved export superiority by making significant investments in pipelines and LNG facilities.

It’s one thing to have gas in the ground, but it’s a while ‘nother thing to get the gas out of the ground and transported around the world.

Countries with largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity in operation worldwide as of September 2025

Source: Statista

NOTE: Qatar’s past and future role is extremely important, and I will touch on that in just a moment.

This US dominance is a relatively new development over the past decade and shows no signs of stopping soon.

About 40% of these exports flow through pipelines to Canada and Mexico, while the other 60% is transported via LNG ships around the world.

What’s interesting about these exports is which countries are receiving these shipments.

Nearly every major economy in Europe has become extremely reliant on US natural gas.

It would appear that European nations are becoming more and more dependent on the United States for more than just military might.

Europe is now reliant on US energy too.

And there is one country in particular that is especially notable: Germany.

Their US LNG imports have transformed since 2022.

The same year that the Nord Stream pipeline was blown up.

In case you don’t remember what happened back in 2018, I highly suggest you watch this 1 minute video from C-SPAN here.

Source: C-SPAN

These same laughing Germans also shut down all 17 of their operating nuclear power reactors between 2011 and April 2023!

But, wait - it’s not just Germany.

There’s more!

Strategic Foreign Entanglement with US Natural Gas

Over the past century the United States has used foreign aid and foreign investment to create codependent relations with many subservient nations.

European countries pursued the same strategy several centuries before, especially throughout Africa.

This was knowns as the “Scramble for Africa” with Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom divvying up different parts of the African continent to exploit resources, labor, and trading ports.

Today, the Chinese are the most proactive with this strategy, which they call the Belt and Road Initiative, having pursued projects throughout much of Latin America and Africa. (I explained this in depth a couple weeks ago.)

Just above, I already showed you what’s going on in Europe.

Nearly every European country has dramatically increased their reliance on US sourced LNG.

Japan and South Korea

In Asia, the story is similar for Japan and South Korea.

What’s most interesting are the countries that the US has recently engaged with.

These are the countries that are obvious players in the broader geopolitical chess game:

Turkey

While this situation could be an entire article on its own, the shift for this country comes as a surprise as recently reported by the Nordic Monitor.

Even though the majority of natural gas for Turkey is supplied via pipeline from Russia, Azerbaijan, and Iran, it’s clear why the country is turning to the US for energy security.

Now making up close to 17% of it’s total natural gas imports, supplies from the US to Turkey could continue to increase in the coming years.

Side note: Turkish military operations in Syria also relate to natural gas pipelines.

Taiwan

There is an obvious reason why the US is supplying Taiwan, which I won’t dive into here.

As of last year, Taiwan received most of its LNG from Australia, Qatar, and the US. With supplies from Qatar now in question, it’s clear who could take up some of that slack.

Egypt

Considering its close proximity to the gas rich Gulf States, it may be surprising to see the dramatic increase of US LNG imports to Egypt.

In 2025, the US supplied more than 90% of Egypt’s LNG imports.

Notably, Egypt recently signed an MOU with Qatar for LNG imports. But since Qatar just declared force majeure into July, this is now an uncertainty.

Panama

Although Panama is a tiny customer, relative to other LNG consumers, this increase shows the commitment that the US has to ensuring strategic allied nations remain aligned.

Rest of the World

I only highlighted several of the notable countries above, but the list of other countries that have increased their LNG imports from the US include:

• El Salvador

• Lithuania

• Finland

• Greece

• Bangladesh

• Senegal

• Many more

How Does This Reverse Course?

In the short term, it can’t.

Within the US, over 40% of electricity is generated by natural gas, followed by nuclear (~17%), coal (~17%), and renewables (wind, solar, hydro) making up the rest.

Globally, the breakdown isn’t too different.

The US and most of the world needs natural gas.

And while there are many global regions that are rich with natural gas resources, there are few that are able to transport the gas from the ground to their final destination.

To make matters worse, the capital investments and time required to build out LNG facilities are enormous.

A small disruption in LNG supply can dramatically impact the global energy market.

And that’s exactly what just happened in Qatar, which is responsible for approximately 20% of the world’s LNG supply.

Two of Qatar LNG’s mega-trains (the large equipment that cools natural gas into liquid form for transportation) were struck by Iranian weapons, eliminating 17% of the companies production ability.

This damage, in addition to the Strait of Hormuz being closed, has destroyed Qatar’s ability to export LNG.

While it’s possible that exports could resume soon, it’s also possible that they don’t.

Beyond Qatar, there is likely damage at other natural gas facilities too, like the Habshan Complex in the UAE.

This would all put enormous strain on the global LNG market, which is already forecasted to grow dramatically from the US perspective.

And, of course, that doesn’t even take into account additional demand for the United States’ domestic needs.

Like data centers.

How to Invest in the Natural Gas Entanglement

At this point, a monkey with a dart could probably pick a winner in the natural gas industry.

That’s because almost all of the producers are dirt cheap, and the rest of the industry isn’t too bad either.

Producer names like EQT , Antero Resources , Range Resources Corp , and Expand Energy Corporation have single digit P/E valuations and can sustain operations with very low natural gas prices.

This is in stark contrast to the companies that rely on this energy, as Giacomo shared in his article so well:

And what about actual natural gas prices?

This is the more complicated part, which we will see developing over the next couple of months.

Here’s what’s going on: The US actually has a glut of natural gas, as increased oil drilling creates more supply of natural gas, especially in the Permian.

The problem is that export capacity is near tapped out. The existing LNG export facilities that are based in the US, Mexico, and Canada cannot export much more than they already are.

This creates a situation where natural gas within the United States is cheap, while other countries have to pay drastically higher costs.

“The crisis has exposed a major split in the global gas market: Import-dependent countries across Europe and Asia are scrambling for scarce supplies, but the United States - the world's largest gas producer, consumer and exporter - remains awash in fuel, with prices near 17-month lows. But ​U.S. pipelines are full and LNG export plants are at capacity, so that cheap U.S. gas cannot reach overseas buyers, creating a bifurcation much more stark than in the oil markets.” -Reuters

Venture Global and Cheniere are positioned to do very well from this situation, as they are the largest LNG companies in the US.

The problem with these two companies is that high fuel costs (for shipping) and long term contracts can limit some of their upside.

But that’s just splitting hairs.

Several years from now we’ll probably all look at this whole situation with crystal clear hindsight.

If it produces, refines, processes, ships, or somehow sells natural gas, it’s probably a buy right now.

We’re looking at a US stock market that is literally trading at all time high valuations, during a war over energy, while one of the most important energy sources in the world is trading for fire sale prices.

Just be ready for volatility - there’s a reason why natural gas investing is known as the widow maker!

If you made it all the way to here, do me a favor and drop me a ❤️ or repost 🔁 this.

These two events, which transpired on the same year in 455, symbolized both the beginning and fall of two different empires.

Were the Mayans thinking about conquering the Romans when they founded Chichen Itza? Were the Romans concerned about the threat of the Mayans while Rome was getting sacked?

Of course not.

These two different civilizations were on complete opposite sides of the world. Neither society had ever interacted with each other. They hardly knew what existed beyond their kingdom borders.

In modern times, it seems that similar scenarios are reversed.

A government change in an Asian country can impact the economy in a Latin American nation. A nickel mine disaster in Indonesia can disrupt the electric vehicle industry in Norway. The assassination of a single person; the sinking of one boat; the decisions of a tiny few - each could lead to a World War.

It’s incredible how interconnected our world has become.

In 2026, this trend of globalization seems to be reversing again, back to a world where the Mayans and Romans don’t give a rat’s ass about each other.

The Lower Case j Global Economy

There has been much written about the ‘K-shaped economy.’

This scenario is where economic outcomes diverge, with the upper class and technology sector accelerating higher, while the lower class and industrials struggle with high inflation and debt.

One of the best visualizations of this playing out in real time is the performance of the Nasdaq compared to the company Home Depot:

The divergence is stark, especially when you look at the long term correlation.

My friend Wyatt Sparks, from Sea Meadow Capital, proposed a possibly better description of what’s currently playing out: the lower case ‘j’ economy, where the dot of the ‘j’ represents the small minority of the world benefitting from rapidly appreciating tech assets.

Will that dot above the hooked ‘j’ continue to drift higher?

Or will it fall down and land in that j’s hook?

Valuing the Dot Cohort

If you asked anyone in the dot cohort, who has been the beneficiary of AI’s meteoric run, they’d probably argue that there’s much more runway ahead.

So far, they’ve been right. And they’ve put their money where their mouth is:

But like a game of musical chairs, the music has to stop at some point, right? Right?!

That’s what hedge funds may think, as most recent data shows that big players may be banking some of their big multi-year wins.

So why would some investors pile back into the market, while others (arguably the more sophisticated ones) are exiting?

Beyond valuations, which I’ll mention just below, it might be as simple as looking at the adoption curve.

Just like it takes 50% of a population to join a new trend, after that trend has peaked, investors can follow a similar path.

Conservative investors typically wait for confirmation that a specific trend is in place and established. By avoiding early trends, risk is assumedly decreased by avoiding any speculative opportunity.

That’s why specific trends tend to concentrate in a small number of opportunities, or companies, within that trend.

The late majority waits for confirmation, and then when they see the confirmation, they pile into the household names.

Of course, you as a savvy investor, sees the obvious risk here.

To make things even worse, the confirmation, which is usually quantified by past numerical appreciation, ignores valuation.

Speaking of valuations…

Never Been More Expensive

That’s quite a subheading. But it’s true, according to the (in)famous Buffett Indicator.

Statistically, the market is forecasted to return a negative 1% return over the next year.

But AI! This time is different! Money printer go brrr! Fed lowering interest rates! AI is deflationary! Peace coming to Middle East! Robotics!

Yes. Maybe that’s all true.

But so is all of the above.

And the j-shaped economy is very real for many people around the world.

What comes next, with surging energy prices yet to fully flush through the global economy, is anyone’s guess.

Despite all of this, there are still opportunities around the world. And two of them are where demographics are excellent (more on that soon)…

These floating electricity generators are a part of a fleet of oil-fired thermal power plants - both floating and land based - that account for over 80% of Cuba’s power generation.

The land based Soviet-era facilities suffer from frequent breakdowns and rely on a constant stream of (until very recently) Venezuelan oil.

The floating power stations are mostly supplied by a private Turkish company who’s mission is “to reduce energy poverty.” Something that Cuba is very familiar with.

Source: Karpowership

I last saw one of Karpowership’s projects in Guyana, as the company won a major contract to convert LNG into electricity for the fastest growing economy in the world.

Over in Cuba, who’s economy is barely alive, electricity has become a crisis since the fall of Maduro.

Desperate for oil, the US recently allowed a sanctioned Russian oil tanker to make a delivery in Cuba’s Matanzas bay for ‘humanitarian reasons.’

For obvious reasons, the US didn’t want to admit that the tanker was accompanied by a Russian nuclear submarine.

Changes A Coming

As I explained last week, the companies operating in Cuba and the opportunities available are all likely to change soon.

Similar developments will also occur in Nicaragua.

Historically, both of these countries have been very difficult to invest in for most Westerners.

Not only are most enterprises state operated and controlled (which is why they are fraught with corruption and mismanagement), the few publicly traded companies are often sanctioned and inaccessible for investors.

But that doesn’t mean that these countries don’t have enormous amounts of untapped wealth.

Cuba & Nicaragua - Riches in the Rocks

I detailed the long history that the US has had with Cuba and Nicaragua… Much of which has been a series of regime changes, subliminal influence, and actual military conflicts.

Beyond these historical events, it’s important to understand why Cuba and Nicaragua continue to be interests of major world powers.

Cuba

With a literacy rate over 99%, Cuba has a workforce primed for production. The problem is that the country has no real industry or manufacturing base for investors to easily step into.

The one exception may be in the biotech industry via BioCubaFarma. This state run company is surprisingly successful with thousands of patents issues worldwide and a wide variety of vaccines and treatments developed.

Source: BioCubaFarma

The company does accept private investment and even has an “Investment Catalog” that present different opportunities. One project shows a projected 72% IRR:

But for most Westerners participation isn’t possible due to sanctions. Still, it’s an industry to keep an eye on if Cuba opens back up to the world for investment.

Nicaragua

Although Nicaragua is the largest country in Central America (by land mass), it ranks as the lowest in terms of GDP per capita.

Side story: I was once robbed in the streets of Managua by the actual police.

Despite the poor economic situation in the country, the land is extremely rich with natural resources.

Known as the "breadbasket of Central America," it possesses the region's most fertile soil and largest freshwater reserves. But agriculture is not where the country shines the most.

Investing in Communist Transformations

I’ve already done an exhausting amount of explanations and research over the past two weeks within these two publications:

So let’s just cut to the chase and review eight publicly traded companies that could see upside from transformations within Cuba and Nicaragua…

Read more