These floating electricity generators are a part of a fleet of oil-fired thermal power plants - both floating and land based - that account for over 80% of Cuba’s power generation.

The land based Soviet-era facilities suffer from frequent breakdowns and rely on a constant stream of (until very recently) Venezuelan oil.

The floating power stations are mostly supplied by a private Turkish company who’s mission is “to reduce energy poverty.” Something that Cuba is very familiar with.

Source: Karpowership

I last saw one of Karpowership’s projects in Guyana, as the company won a major contract to convert LNG into electricity for the fastest growing economy in the world.

Over in Cuba, who’s economy is barely alive, electricity has become a crisis since the fall of Maduro.

Desperate for oil, the US recently allowed a sanctioned Russian oil tanker to make a delivery in Cuba’s Matanzas bay for ‘humanitarian reasons.’

For obvious reasons, the US didn’t want to admit that the tanker was accompanied by a Russian nuclear submarine.

Changes A Coming

As I explained last week, the companies operating in Cuba and the opportunities available are all likely to change soon.

Similar developments will also occur in Nicaragua.

Historically, both of these countries have been very difficult to invest in for most Westerners.

Not only are most enterprises state operated and controlled (which is why they are fraught with corruption and mismanagement), the few publicly traded companies are often sanctioned and inaccessible for investors.

But that doesn’t mean that these countries don’t have enormous amounts of untapped wealth.

Cuba & Nicaragua - Riches in the Rocks

I detailed the long history that the US has had with Cuba and Nicaragua… Much of which has been a series of regime changes, subliminal influence, and actual military conflicts.

Beyond these historical events, it’s important to understand why Cuba and Nicaragua continue to be interests of major world powers.

Cuba

With a literacy rate over 99%, Cuba has a workforce primed for production. The problem is that the country has no real industry or manufacturing base for investors to easily step into.

The one exception may be in the biotech industry via BioCubaFarma. This state run company is surprisingly successful with thousands of patents issues worldwide and a wide variety of vaccines and treatments developed.

Source: BioCubaFarma

The company does accept private investment and even has an “Investment Catalog” that present different opportunities. One project shows a projected 72% IRR:

But for most Westerners participation isn’t possible due to sanctions. Still, it’s an industry to keep an eye on if Cuba opens back up to the world for investment.

Nicaragua

Although Nicaragua is the largest country in Central America (by land mass), it ranks as the lowest in terms of GDP per capita.

Side story: I was once robbed in the streets of Managua by the actual police.

Despite the poor economic situation in the country, the land is extremely rich with natural resources.

Known as the "breadbasket of Central America," it possesses the region's most fertile soil and largest freshwater reserves. But agriculture is not where the country shines the most.

Investing in Communist Transformations

I’ve already done an exhausting amount of explanations and research over the past two weeks within these two publications:

So let’s just cut to the chase and review eight publicly traded companies that could see upside from transformations within Cuba and Nicaragua…

Read more

We had taken off from a small airport outside of Managua, destined for a tiny outpost along Nicaragua’s Mosquito Coast.

After a rough landing on a dirt airstrip, we were driven north into an extremely remote part of the coastline. We eventually reached a small community of orphans that were being raised by a couple of heroic families.

Almost immediately we were overwhelmed by these orphans that wanted to play, talk, and touch our faces. They laughed at our pale complexion.

I wondered if we were some of the first white people they had interacted with?

Perhaps for these kids, we were.

But almost assuredly, just a couple of generations prior, there had been plenty of encounters with our white American faces along this forgotten part of the world.

Preparation for Failure

In April of 1961, nearly half a century before my Nicaraguan venture, over 1,400 men assembled in Retalhuleu, Guatemala. They were about to set out on a secret mission that would become one of the most infamous events in American Military history.

They were a part of Brigade 2506, named after Carlos Rafael Santana Estevez’s dog tag number. He had died in a training accident in September 1960, while working with the CIA in preparation for a mission that would eventually become Operation Mongoose.

The Brigade trained at secret camps on coffee farms near Retalhuleu. In the immediate area, US military engineers refurbished a local airstrip which they code named “Rayo.”

Eventually, these men would fly from Rayo to another airstrip, just outside of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, nearby where I would visit 45 years later.

Puppet Master Addiction

Just eight years before Brigade 2506 started training for their secret mission, their intended game plan had first been used in 1953.

Egged on by the British to save their foreign petroleum operations, the United States executed their first successful CIA orchestrated coup d’état in Iran.

Compared to past regime change attempts, that used enormous amounts of military resources, money, and time, this new strategy deployed in Iran was like magic.

Beyond the new techniques used by the CIA to make this all happen, none of this could of transpired without two brothers: John Foster Dulles and Allen Dulles.

John Dulles, who was the US Secretary of State, and Allen Dulles, who was the CIA Director, worked in tandem to strategize and deploy multiple clandestine regime change operations around the world.

Most them, from the brother’s perspective, were wildly successful.

In the 1950’s alone, major CIA operations took place in:

• China

• Burma

• Egypt

• Guatemala (twice)

• Iran

• Syria

• Indonesia

• Iraq

• South Vietnam

• Cuba

• Cambodia

Nicaragua and Guatemala Were Captured

Back in Puerto Cabezas, on April 14, 1961, near where I had visited in 2006, most of Brigade 2506 loaded up on six ships about to set off due North.

This logistical situation was made possible by that fact that the United States basically controlled Guatemala and Nicaragua, thanks to the Dulles Brothers.

Guatemala

After a failed coup attempt in 1952, the CIA was finally successful in overthrowing the Guatemalan government in 1954 and placed right-wing dictator Carlos Castillo Armas in charge.

Armas proceeded to lead the country in a pro-US direction, and also ensured that the United Fruit Company was able to maintain it’s profitable operations in the region.

Now a Swiss-domiciled entity known as “Chiquita Brands International,” the United Fruit Company wasn’t just a lucky beneficiary of the US takeover of Guatemala.

Both of the Dulles brothers, prior to serving in government, had worked at the firm Sullivan & Cromwell.

While there, they negotiated major land deals for the United Fruit Company in Guatemala and Honduras in the 1930s, and were major shareholders of the company.

But it wasn’t just the Dulles brothers who were incentivized to overthrow Guatemala in order for the United Fruit Company to thrive.

Multiple other influential parties had deep interests in controlling Guatemala and the entire region, which included:

• Ann Whitman: served as President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s personal secretary and was married to Edmund Whitman, who was the Director of Public Relations for United Fruit.

• Thomas Dudley Cabot: served as the Director of International Security Affairs in the US State Department under Eisenhower, and had previously served as the President of United Fruit.

• John Moors Cabot: served as the Assistant Secretary of State for Inter-American Affairs, was brother to Thomas Dudley Cabot, and a major shareholder in United Fruit.

• Walter Bedell Smith: served as the Undersecretary of State (and previously as Director of the CIA), and actively pursued an executive position at United Fruit, eventually joining its Board of Directors after leaving government service.

• Sinclair Weeks: served as Eisenhower’s Secretary of Commerce and had ties to the company as a Director of the First National Bank of Boston, which served as United Fruit’s primary financial institution.

Believe it or not, the list goes much longer than that.

United Fruit’s rebranding to Chiquita hasn’t eliminated their ‘resourceful’ ways of doing business, as the company was recently found responsible in 2024, in a West Palm Beach courthouse, for the killings of eight family members. The event related to Chiquita paying off local narco-terrorists in exchange for protection of their agricultural operations. The lawsuit marked the first time that a U.S. federal jury has found an American corporation responsible for financing human rights violations in foreign countries. -HRR

Nicaragua

Over in Nicaragua, where Brigade 2506 was loaded up, a similar story had unfolded decades before.

During the Banana Wars, the US occupied Nicaragua from 1912 until 1933, which included varying degrees of conflict and influence.

The US did this by organizing, arming, and training the Nicaraguan National Guard as a force to maintain order after the US departure.

Of course, the US also put a favorable person in charge - Anastasio Somoza García.

Somoza spoke perfect English and had gone to school in the US, making him a favorable ally.

The Samoza family eventually went on to rule Nicaragua for the next 43 years…

Plenty of time for the US to use Nicaragua as a jumping off point for their next regime installment.

Voyage to Playa Giron

Leaving the Puerto Cabezas dock on April 14, 1961, Brigade 2506 was now underway aboard several ships to their final destination - an island who’s existence and recent transformation symbolized an immediate and imminent threat to the United States.

Source: BPB

While the flotilla of WWII era water craft pushed forward, the CIA arranged for eight B-26 bombers to attack Cuban airfields.

This bombing campaign, the CIA assumed, would prevent any Cuban aircraft from responding to the impending invasion that was about to happen.

It would take two more days after the airstrips were bombed for the ships to reach Playa Giron, and the Bay of Pigs.

This left 48 hours for the Cubans to prepare.

What came next, on April 17th, was a complete disaster.

Ships sank, planes shot out of the sky, lives lost, and a total failed military landing operation was all that was left.

The post-mortem analysis of the entire event is brutal. A series of miscalculations, inaccurate assumptions, bad intel, and some bad luck all added up to a huge SNAFU.

After the failed invasion, the fingers began to point everywhere. Internally, within the US Government, there were all sorts of disagreements about where the blame should fall. To this day, there are still major issues that haven’t been settled.

The Monroe Doctrine’s Original Intent

Looking back at the failed US invasion of Cuba, it’s tempting to scream out loud, WHAT WERE THEY THINKING?!

We’d have to review what the Monroe Doctrine is all about and why it was extremely relevant - at least in theory - during much of the first half of the 20th century.

Originally shared by President Monroe during his State of the Union address in December of 1823, he proposed that any foreign interference in the Western Hemisphere was a direct threat against the United States.

While it may sound extreme today, imagine the thinking of the government and the people of the US during the early 1800’s…

America was a new found country that was literally built by people who were escaping Europe, and other parts of the world, in search of a better life.

The idea that other world power influences could, and would eventually creep into the US hemisphere was terrifying, and not completely unfounded.

And there were other instances throughout the 1800’s which solidified the Monroe Doctrine in American society, such as:

• Spain: as the former colonial ruler of most of Latin America, and just two years prior to Monroe’s speech, Spain attempted several take-overs, such as the 1829 expedition to Mexico (which failed), annexation of the Dominican Republic (1861–1865), and also fought the Chincha Islands War against Peru and Chile (1864–1866).

• France: participated in the 1838–1850 Río de la Plata blockade against Argentina. They were also involved in the Second French Intervention in Mexico (1862–1867), where French forces invaded and installed Austrian Archduke Maximilian as an attempt to create a French-aligned monarchy in the Americas.

• Britain: although not a direct threat, the British continued to exert economic influence through trade, investment, and loans in Argentina, Brazil, and Chile. The Brits also had territorial claims in the Caribbean, the Falkland Islands, British Honduras (Belize), the Mosquito Coast in Nicaragua, and British Guiana.

From the US perspective, all of these countries and their colonization attempts were threats to the exact way of life that United States were so against.

It’s why the US had taken an isolationist approach during this time period, to avoid all of the entanglements which plagued much of the world - especially Europe.

The German Influence

Depending on where you sit in the world, your education is likely extremely biased towards the defense of your home country.

It’s only normal to position historical events to fit into the context of the world view and social standards that your community abides by.

From a US point of view, when we think of Germany’s history over the past century, it’s almost exclusively contained within the WWI and WWII timeframe.

The Ypiranga Incident

In April of 1914, a German steam powered cargo liner arrived at the Mexican port of Veracruz to unload a large delivery of ammunition, rifles, and machine guns.

The supplies were being delivered for the Mexican Revolution, which the US was trying to stop by placing Mexico under an arms embargo.

From the US perspective, the war waging in Mexico was spilling across the border and destabilizing the Southwestern US territories in California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas.

The US attempted to stop the unloading of the cargo in the port of Veracruz, but the Ypiranga ended up going to a different port to unload.

This incident is notable because this was the first direct run-in that the US had with Germany in the Western Hemisphere, and is even more interesting considering that Germany entered into World Word I just a couple of months later in August of 1914.

The Zimmermann Telegram

Three years after the Ypiranga incident, while both the Mexican Revolution and WWI were raging, the United States was still sitting on the sidelines.

Then, on January 17, 1917, the German Foreign Office sent an encrypted telegram to Mexico which proposed that they join in the World War together.

In exchange for the Mexican’s cooperation, Germany would assist Mexico in getting back the states of Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas if the US entered the World War.

The telegram ended up getting intercepted by British Intelligence, who shared the information with the United States.

Then, on March 3, 1917, German State Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Arthur Zimmermann, publicly admitted that the telegram as authentic.

The United States declared war on Germany the next month in April of 1917.

Germany Wanted the US to Fight Mexico

It wasn’t just the Zimmermann Telegram that brought the US into World War I.

Germany was incentivized to entangle the US in a war with its Southern neighbor so the Germans could continue their global expansion unabated.

On multiple occasions, prior to the US entering WWI, the Germans tried to weaken the US:

• Most people think about the 128 Americans that were on the British ship Lusitania that was sunk by German u-boats. However, there were many other actual US vessels that were attacked and sunk by the Germans prior to the US entering WWI, which included the SS William P. Frye, the SS Gulflight, the SS Housatonic, the SS Lyman M. Law, the SS City of Memphis, the SS Illinois, the SS Healdton, the SS Aztec, and the SS Algonquin.

• German Imperial Navy junior officer, Lothar Witzke, claimed responsibility for the March 1917 munitions explosion at the Mare Island Naval Shipyard and for the July 1916 Black Tom explosion in New Jersey. Both were equivalent to modern day terrorist attacks on domestic soil.

• Franz von Rintelen, who was a German Naval Intelligence officer, gave Victoriano Huerta $12 million. Huerta, who was a former President (dictator) of Mexico, was instructed to incite war with the US, because the Germans wanted the US to stop sending munitions to the Allies in Europe.

• German military officers were known to be aiding anti-American Mexican rebel groups, on the ground, during the Mexican Revolution.

These are just the incidents that we know of. There are likely many more stories lost to history that both the US and Germany would rather not dig up.

China is Using Germany’s Playbook

The list of ways that the Chinese are weakening the US would dwarf the list above.

The difference is that the methods and tactics used today are less about direct military engagement and more about subversive efforts that operate in gray zones.

Whether it’s fentanyl, drones, rare earth elements, government subsidies, or good old fashioned hacking campaigns, the Chinese have been slowly increasing their efforts over the past decade.

The US is Now Directly Countering China’s German Playbook

There’s no doubt that the US has been playing both offense and defense against the People’s Republic of China for many decades.

This game arguably started in 1951 during the US proxy battle with the Soviets and Chinese during the Korean War.

During this time, John Dulles proposed the First Island Chain perimeter, designed to contain China's maritime expansion in the Pacific. Since then, the Second Island Chain and other debated lines in the ocean have been drawn.

But these imaginary lines are just the tip of the iceberg as it relates to the power struggle between the US and China.

The real areas of influence, and now battle, are well underway.

The “Reverse Kissinger” Strategy

While hotly debated, and unlikely to ever be resolved, there is a viewpoint that the US views the war in Ukraine as a longterm strategic event.

If Russia is tied up fighting a war on Europe’s Eastern front, then the Chinese will have far less support during a potential China/US conflict in the Pacific.

This goes directly against the former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s proposed partnership with China. His approach was to warm up to China to drive a wedge between them and the Soviets.

But Kissinger’s strategy has clearly changed direction.

Whether it’s because of new US leadership, or because the alliance of convenience has changed, Kissinger’s original plan has reversed course.

If the US can no longer effectively separate China and Russia as a unified power, then weakening one of the powers (Russia) through a prolonged foreign war will have to do.

Ironically, China may view the war in Ukraine as favorable as well.

That’s because China and Russia are likely strengthening ties behind the scenes.

They’re increasingly relying on each other for raw materials, intelligence, and war fighting strategies as much of the world closes off to them.

Additionally, the Chinese view the war in Ukraine as tying up Western resources that may come to the aid of the US in any potential future conflict.

Venezuela’s FAFO Moment

US intervention in Venezuela is the most justifiable, considering the country creates a clear threat to the Western Hemisphere and is actively working with adversaries.

Beyond oil trade with China, Venezuela has:

• Assisted Iran with drone manufacturing and development since 2006 (using Chinese components).

• Hosted China, Russia, and Iran for military exercises.

• Currently hosting two Chinese built and operated satellite tracking facilities.

• Worked with Russia diplomatically, economically, and militarily to contest the United States from within the Western Hemisphere. Russia has threatened the deployment of nuclear-capable Russian missiles to Venezuela as recently as October 2025 and provided military advisors, air defense systems, helicopters, and fighter jets. -ISW

Investor’s Venezuelan Windfall

There were many companies that benefitted from Maduro’s recent ouster. The most obvious one, that I covered last week, was a gold mining company.

⏰ From last week:

On January 3, 2026, which was a Saturday, U.S. Special Forces captured Maduro in Caracas, Venezuela. Gold Reserve’s US OTC listing had closed the previous day at $1.68 per share.

On Monday’s market open, the share price rocketed to over $3.50, and then peaked in March at $5.58 per share, representing a 232% gain in a little over a month.

Beyond this gold miner, and many other similar companies traded on US exchanges, the actual Caracas Stock Exchange Index has absolutely mooned.

Up over 2,500% over the past year, it’s clear that investors are excited about a market opening back up to the world.

(It’s also clear that investors prefer to put their money in equities versus inflation-risked fiat currency!)

Cuba and Nicaragua - About to Find Out

Yesterday, a US DOJ flight landed in Havana, Cuba. This is the ‘sister plane’ to the flight that took Maduro from Guantanamo Bay to New York on January 3, 2026.

Source: FlightAware

Operated by the U.S. Department of Justice, and used by the FBI, this specific aircraft has been used recently during a 2023 flight to Poland (coinciding with Attorney General Merrick Garland's visit to Ukraine).

What was this trip for?

It’s probably related to something that we’re all about to find out about.

That’s especially true considering that a US Navy MQ-4C Triton surveillance drone has been doing daily laps around the island of Cuba, and Trump has dropped references about Cuba ‘being next’ multiple times in the past couple of weeks.

Meanwhile, over in Nicaragua, we’re starting to see some new developments.

Yesterday, “The United States expanded its sanctions against Nicaragua's gold sector by including relatives of President Daniel Ortega and mining companies, in an attempt to limit the government's sources of financing.” -BNA

As the Latin Times stated today, “The move signals that Nicaragua is no longer a secondary concern but part of a broader regional strategy targeting authoritarian leftist regimes.”

Preparing to Invest in Cuba and Nicaragua

As I shared last week in The Ultimate Guide to Investing in Cuba (before and after the ‘change’), there are already incredible situations revealing themselves for investors.

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Starting in the mid-1990’s Hermitage was able to transform their initial $25 million of seed capital into over $4.5 billion by investing in Russian state-owned assets that were being sold off for pennies on the dollar.

As you can probably imagine, the full story of this financial win is not without significant risk and drama. Browder ended up writing two books - Red Notice and Freezing Order - which detail the financial strategies, corruption, and even murder that unfolded during this time period.

Fast forward to 2026 and there are two more similar stories developing, with many of the profits, and tribulations, yet to be revealed.

The first story, which has miraculously fallen out of focus due to current geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, has to do with Venezuela and the United State’s dramatic capture of Maduro.

The Venezuela Parable

Literally overnight, the trajectory of Venezuela and its people immediately changed as Maduro’s ouster signaled the fall of a regime and the opening of opportunity.

Whether or not the direction of Venezuela will dramatically change in the coming years is yet to be determined, but there have already been enormous financial wins for those properly positioned.

However, unlike the story with Browder, many of these enormous profit taking events in Venezuela are very unlikely to make the news anytime soon… Or ever. That’s because those involved in making these investments are equally interested in their ability to fly under the radar as they are in the actual upside.

Just as an activist investor like Bill Ackman thrives on public exposure and shifting market sentiment, other investors succeed by pursuing the exact opposite strategy.

Despite the many unknown deals currently being structured in Venezuela, there is one public company that has already seen massive success. My good friend Swen Lorenz has written about this opportunity many times, and another friend (who shall remain nameless) is a major shareholder. I’m taking about the gold mining company Gold Reserve.

It’s story is long, complicated, and can be summed up simply by a recent company presentation:

Of course this timeline only goes until July of 2025, which was the same month the company went public on the Bermuda stock exchange. And most importantly, this was all before the capturing of Maduro.

On January 3, 2026, which was a Saturday, U.S. Special Forces captured Maduro in Caracas, Venezuela. Gold Reserve’s US OTC listing had closed the previous day at $1.68 per share.

On Monday’s market open, the share price rocketed to over $3.50, and then peaked in March at $5.58 per share, representing a 232% gain in a little over a month.

Obviously this jump in share price was pure speculation. Nothing material had changed in the company itself and investors were simply betting on the momentum fueled geopolitical event.

Or maybe not?

While it’s true that Gold Reserve didn’t discover a new gold mine overnight, it’s also true that their claims on Venezuelan territory could all of a sudden be much more exploitable. Maybe the company’s share price is still undervalued? I know that major shareholders haven’t jumped ship yet…

Anyway, you now understand how opportunities in Russia and Venezuela can uncover themselves in a matter of days, and have billions of dollars worth of profit potential for savvy and adventurous investors.

Could the same scenario be playing out in Cuba right now? Could Cuba be the next emerging market that early investors will have major windfalls from?

There is certainly a lot of chatter about the Cuban regime falling, or at least changing directions significantly. Trump has made a variety of “Cuba’s next” comments after his moves on Venezuela and Iran. Should we doubt his words and chalk Cuba up as a another TACO? Or is he serious, and is there reason to position yourself now for a new open Cuban economy?

Cuba - A Capitalist’s Dream?

To be clear, Cuba is currently a capitalist’s nightmare. There is nothing about Cuba, in its current state, that is attractive to an investor who believes in free market principles… Except for one thing: If Cuba returned to it’s pre-1959 economy, capitalist investors would be able to seize on a moment of blank slate opportunity.

They’d be able to enter a country with vast mineral and energy resources, a surprisingly advanced biotech industry, fantastic tourism potential, and most importantly, a (literally) hungry workforce that is craving opportunity.

Please note that nothing you will read below has to do with the current state of Cuba and how the country got to where it is today. You also won’t read anything about the tumultuous relationship that Cuba has had with the United States, or any other country for that matter.

Instead, I am focusing purely on investment opportunities that are currently available for investors, and investment opportunities that may soon become available if the country’s current regime is to change.

What you’ll find below is an in depth guide that explores the diverse landscape of Cuban investments as of April 2026.

Following recent reforms, including the historic decision to allow the Cuban diaspora to invest directly in private enterprises, the risk-reward profile of the island has shifted significantly.

I have organized opportunities ranking from ‘currently available with minimal risk and partial exposure’ to ‘possibly soon available with considerable risk and major exposure.’ This ranking means that the companies and opportunities listed first are generally much more liquid and widely available compared to the later part of the list.

Likewise, this listing order also indicates possible risk and reward. Investments that have less direct exposure to Cuba will have less risk, but also less possible reward. The opposite is likewise true.

Let’s dive in…

The Indirect Exposure Plays

Companies in this section could benefit from positive Cuban economic activity without having significant physical assets on the island. Generally speaking, this would mean that no positive developments in Cuba wouldn’t really effect these companies at all, while any sort of increased business activity with the island would add directly to the bottom line of these companies.

Airlines

This is the most obvious sector to possibly benefit and could be an entire investment case on it’s own. I’ll stay relatively high level here, just touching on what airlines currently do business with the island.

First, it’s important to point out that Cuba actually has a pretty busy and developed airport industry. The island has six airports that each service international flights: Havana, Varadero, Santa Clara, Cayo Coco, Camaguey, Holguin, and Santiago de Cuba.

Havana is the busiest airport and has international flights that go to the US, Mexico, Canada, Panama, Colombia, Venezuela, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Turkey, Cayman Islands, Guyana, and Angola(!).

Many of these international flights are serviced by a wide variety of airlines (Turkish Airlines, Iberia, Air France, etc.), so don’t represent a meaningful relative amount of those carriers total destinations.

Perhaps somewhat surprisingly (but not, because of proximity), it’s the US airlines that have the most daily flights to and from Cuba. Although United ( ) , Delta ( ) , JetBlue ( ) , and Southwest ( ) all fly to Cuba, it’s American Airlines ( ) that dominates the route accounting for nearly 80% of all US/Cuba travel. American operates about a dozen flights a day and flies into all six of the Cuban airports previously mentioned.

The next closest airline, operating 3-4 flights per day, is Copa Airlines ( ), which is Panama’s flagship carrier. Copa operates the primary regional airport - known as the "Hub of the Americas" - in Panama City.

Cuba does have their own airline, Cubana de Aviación S.A. or better known as ‘Cubana,’ but it’s state owned and has had all sorts of problems, as you can imagine.

Cruise Lines

Potentially offering more upside than airlines, cruise operators could benefit meaningfully in the event Cuba opens up further and relations improve with the United States.

Beyond an increase in customers, cruise lines may benefit as their clientele may prefer to rely on the infrastructure of the actual ship (i.e. power, plumbing, safety, etc.) versus land based hospitality. This is not to say that there aren’t incredible hotels and resorts in Cuba (there are, and we’ll talk about them a little later).

However, what’s most important right now in 2026, is that there are currently no publicly traded cruise lines servicing Cuba.

In the past, Royal Caribbean ( ), Carnival Corp ( ), and Norwegian Cruise Line ( ) have included Cuba as one of their destinations, but over the past several years, for a variety of reasons, they have eliminated Cuba from their itineraries.

There are some private cruise lines that have occasional stops on the island, but their schedules aren’t consistent and they’re mostly private equity backed.

In the event that Cuba’s tourism industry expands to re-incorporate cruise services, the three public companies listed above could have meaningful upside.

Consumer Brands

The situation with consumer brands that are sold in Cuba is very complicated. While there are many global brands present on the island, their operations are typically structured as joint ventures with the Cuban government or managed through third-party distributors from other countries.

That means the variety and penetration of various consumer brands are ever changing and unreliable. Still, mega-corporations like Nestle, Unilever, Coca-Cola, and Colgate are present in Cuba.

However, with a total population of about ten million, the entire country of Cuba does not make up a consumer base to significantly impact those large multi-national brands. I don’t think, even with a full opening of the country, any of those companies would have meaningful impacts.

That said, there are two industries worth mentioning because of their direct relations with iconic Cuban brands.

The first is Pernod Ricard ( $PDRDF ). I’ve mentioned this company before, as it relates to the declining alcohol industry and the possible merger this company could soon be going through. Putting that information aside, Pernod Ricard operates a 50/50 joint venture with the Cuban state-run company Cuba Ron S.A..

Cuba Ron acts as the producer and manages the entire production process within Cuba, from harvesting sugarcane to distillation and aging. Meanwhile, Pernod Ricard acts as the marketer and handles the global marketing, branding, and distribution once the product leaves the island.

Their product, Havana Club, cannot legally be distributed in the United States, but is globally available in over 125 countries.

Tobacco is the second notable industry, as Cuba has a historical dominance and reputation with cigars. As of April 2026, there are no publicly traded companies that own Cuban tobacco brands.

However, there are a wide variety of lawsuits, private equity deals, and foreign companies that are entangled with various Cuban cigar brands like Cohiba, Montecristo, and Romeo y Julieta.

I bring this topic up, because in the event of a Cuban economy opening up, there could be a variety of deals that get made, and settled, with global tobacco companies.

The Legacy Claimants (Windfall Exposure)

This is a massive topic that is extremely complicated, so I am going to keep this section somewhat high level and only touch on the major players.

In summary, there are currently about 6,000 U.S. citizens and corporations that hold federally certified claims against Cuba for billions of dollars in assets that were confiscated in the 1960s.

There are numerous lawsuits that have been going on for decades to resolve these issues, and they’ve seen more activity in 2026, as the Latin Times recently reported:

The companies listed below are just some of the more notable claimants, with the dollar amounts mostly related to their 1960’s value… Which means that today’s values, after interest and inflation could be worth FAR more.

• Cuban Electric Company: Holds the largest single claim, valued at over $267 million (original 1960 value), but is estimated to be worth more than $1 billion today.

• Exxon Mobil ( ): $71.6 million claim and recently filed a lawsuit against Cuban state entities, seeking over $1 billion in damages for seized refineries and service stations.

• Coca-Cola ( ): $27.5 million claim for nationalized bottling plants.

• Colgate-Palmolive ( ): $14.5 million claim.

The list goes on, and on, and on!

I will likely do an in depth article about this entire topic in the future, as I believe there are major opportunities here.

As an example of what I mean, let me quickly explain what happened with the Cuban Electric Company, which is the only company listed above that is not publicly traded.

Through a long series of mergers and acquisitions, the Cuban Electric Company and its claims ended up being owned by Office Depot, which until December of 2025 was publicly traded on the NASDAQ as The ODP Corporation. Atlas Holdings took ODP private for about $1 billion, which means this private equity firm owns both the operating company that runs Office Depot and OfficeMax, as well as the ~$1 billion claims against Cuba!

Although it’s nearly impossible to imagine a scenario where any of these companies get any of their funds paid out to them (for a list of reasons, which mainly relates to the fact that Cuba has no money!), there is another outcome that could be just as good, if not better.

Hypothetically, instead of any of the claimants receiving a cash payout for their claim, they could receive certain licensing, reparations, or rights that would relate to the specific claim they have outstanding.

For example, ExxonMobile is currently seeking $1 billion, which is nearly certain to not be paid. Instead, ExxonMobile could receive the drilling rights for new oil wells in the rich oil and gas fields that are on and surround the island of Cuba. This exact scenario is currently unfolding in Venezuela, albeit with the help (and threat) of the US government.

The Infrastructure & Reconstruction Plays

It’s no secret that the entire island of Cuba is crumbling. This is both in the literal and figurative sense. As the society has struggled to survive, basic infrastructure - roads, buildings, electricity, plumbing, and everything in between - has been completely neglected. Even their admittedly awesome classic cars need upgrading!

Because of the island’s close proximity to the United States, it would seem logistically obvious for US based companies to lead the charge in rebuilding Cuba. And if, or rather when, the US pushes Cuba towards a complete change of policy, it’s almost assured that part of this transition will include the participation of US firms.

For now, I’ll review just three of the possible companies that could get involved.

First is MasTec, Inc. ( ) which is a Florida-based construction giant led by Jorge Mas (who is also Chairman of the Cuban American National Foundation and a Trump supporter). It is perfectly positioned for large-scale utility and telecom rebuilding.

Despite the company’s recent parabolic performance, there is no other company that fits this opportunity better than MasTec. They can handle everything from solar, wind, and battery storage to power generation, manufacturing, and mining.

And it helps that MasTec’s leadership has direct ties to Cuba and the current US administration.

Next is Vulcan Materials ( ), which operates a massive quarry in Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, making it the logistically obvious supplier of construction materials for Cuba’s reconstruction. The company is based in Alabama and also has extensive operations throughout the entire Southern US, including Cuba’s neighbor, Florida.

Considering that Vulcan specializes in asphalt and concrete manufacturing, there could potentially be many years and billions of dollars worth of opportunity within Cuba.

The last company I’ll mention is the obvious Mexican cement giant Cemex ( ). Not only does Cemex have the scale and ability to operate in Cuba, it’s political ties and Latin relations almost ensure that they will be involved in any rebuilding of Cuba.

The Regional Proxy Plays - A Cuba ETF?

Although this section is a bit redundant, I do want to mention one recent market development that relates to getting investment exposure to Cuba.

One of the most obvious and common questions an investor asks when thinking about investing in Cuba is, “Where and what is the ticker symbol for the Cuba ETF?”

Up until July of last year, you could have invested in the Herzfeld Caribbean Basin Fund (with the ticker “CUBA”), which had a basket of stocks positioned to gain from a normalized Cuba.

However, Herzfeld changed their strategy to pursue investing in collateralized loan obligations (CLO’s), and changed their ticker to . You can read the full press release here.

I find the timing of this entire strategy change for Herzfeld to be extremely ironic, but I also sympathize with their situation. Over the past 20 years I have been in investments many times where I finally threw the towel in, only for the tides to change a year later and see my original investment thesis play out… Just after I gave up.

While I cannot speak for the Herzfeld team directly, I can only imagine the meetings that were going on prior to their strategy change and the frustrations that must have been boiling within that entire office for many, many years!

Regardless, there is no Cuba ETF to currently invest in, but there are dozens of regional proxy plays (many of which I’ve already mentioned).

The Pure-Play & Asset-Heavy Leaders (High Exposure)

There are three publicly traded companies that are positioned for significant upside when Cuba’s regime changes. Although one out of the three operates in a different industry, these three companies have the most exposure compared to everything I’ve mentioned so far - by a long shot.

Because each of these companies deserves their own deep dive, I’ll be sending out an entirely new report within the next week. Make sure you subscribe to receive it in your inbox.

Private Opportunities - MSMEs and Diaspora Investment

In the mid-1980’s Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev introduced a new political reform movement known as “Perestroika,” which is Russian for "restructuring.” The intent was to revitalize the stagnant Soviet economy by decentralizing economic controls and encouraging private business. This movement also eased state control over factories and farms.

Basically, this was the communists realizing their system didn’t work, so they implemented measures to move towards capitalism.

Cuba may be having it’s own Perestroika moment in 2026.

MIPYMES, which stands for Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises, were introduced in Cuba during September of 2021 to operate as legal entities similar to LLC’s (but with a lot more rules).

The introduction of this new legal entity marked a shift toward recognizing private property. Under this legal structure, Cubans are allowed to start businesses that employ 3 to 100 workers and operate in most sectors (food, manufacturing, tech) with the intent of filling gaps of the poorly run state economy.

Then, last month, Cuba introduced reform measures that now allows Cuban nationals living abroad to directly own and operate private businesses. These people will also be able to open dollar-denominated bank accounts and use Cuban land for farming or development.

It’s estimated that nearly 5 million Cubans have left the island (and are still alive), which means that more than half of those originally born in Cuba now live somewhere else (there is speculation that Cuba’s stated population of 10 million is much lower - possibly closer to 8 million).

These 5 million expat Cubans, according to the March 2026 reforms, are now eligible to own companies operating in Cuba.

Considering that Cubans have fantastic entrepreneurial skills, there are a couple of companies that are worth looking at…

Supermarket23, which was founded by Aníbal Quevedo, is basically the Amazon of Cuba. If you visit their website, the layout is very similar to Amazon, but their products are exactly what you’d think a struggling society would need - basic foods and supplies like pasta, crackers, canned goods, power generators, and toiletries.

Quevedo, who is Cuban-born and was the former director of Cuba’s first state e-commerce site, likely has strong ties to the Cuban government including high-ranking military officials. Point being that you should understand that the success of Supermarket23 is not as simple as it might sound.

Still, the fact that Supermarket23 is up and running is at least some proof that there is progress with entrepreneurial projects within the Cuban economy.

The second company worth mentioning is Katapulk, which is similar to Supermarket23 except for the fact that Katapulk has secured licenses to export U.S. vehicles and heavy equipment to the island.

Founded by Cuban-American Hugo Cancio, there is also speculation that he is tied in with the Cuban government which has allowed him to grow Katapulk with less friction than other competitors.

For clarity, neither of these companies are Cuban companies, meaning that they are incorporated mostly in other countries despite operating heavily within the island. There have been no purely Cuban based privately owned companies that have made any significant impact, yet (if you know of one, please send me the information).

The ‘Change’ Coming to Cuba Soon?

I’ve called whatever is coming next for Cuba the ‘change’ because I really don’t know what the next transformation will be. Will it be a complete regime overthrow? An internal government reform process? Or will there be a shooting war that will evolve into some sort of foreign (US) occupation?

If I had to guess, I’d say it’s going to be some sort of combination of the above scenarios, minus the shooting war part.

As I said in the beginning of this guide, I do not want to dive into the history of how and why Cuba ended up where it is. There is plenty of information out there that explores all of that in depth.

What I do think is happening now is a changing in the world order, mostly led by the United States and Trump. Without taking any political sides, it’s clear that Trump wants to realign many relationships that the US has historically had - both bad and good. We’ve seen it with the tariff’s, we’re seeing it with NATO, we’ve seen it with Venezuela, and we’re currently holding our breath with the whole Iran situation.

The relationship that the US has had with Cuba is easily one of the most tumultuous and regretful of all - for both sides. It’s almost impossible to imagine a scenario where Cuba is brought into the ‘US fold’ under simple and friendly terms.

However, from the US and Trump perspective, this is a must happen. Cuba must be brought under US influence, as the threat that the island poses to the United States (mostly by proximity) is far too great to just ignore.

History has shown, mostly during the Cuban missile crisis, that the ability for US adversaries to set up shop in the US’s backyard is very real.

Today, in 2026, it’s not just speculation that this could happen again… It’s already happening. The Chinese have dramatically increased their cooperation with Cuba, especially on the military front. A variety of Chinese military installations have been set up throughout the island of Cuba, allowing for all types of surveillance, training, and logistical support - all of which potentially threaten the United States.

Source: CSIS

As I’ve mentioned many times over the past several years, nearly all wars transpiring in the world right now relate in some way to the impending US and China conflict. Proxy battles are underway on the literal battlefield, in space, in financial systems, on the web, through propaganda campaigns, and in nearly every place you can imagine.

While Cuba itself does not pose a direct threat to the US, it’s the parties that use Cuba and it’s global location as a conduit that do. The US will not stand for that, which is why a ‘change’ is certain to developing for Cuba soon.

Make sure you subscribe so you can get my follow up report on the three publicly traded companies that are best positioned for significant upside when Cuba’s regime changes.

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This trend, where different industries are performing in contrast to each other, could quickly be compared to the “K-shaped economy.” But upon closer inspection you’ll find that some of the best brands in the United States, and the world, have fallen to generationally low prices.

This is not to say that there aren’t reasons. A quick explanation for globally recognized brands underperforming over the past five years can be blamed on the pandemic. While many tech companies have catapulted themselves out of the global event, other companies have stumbled and wandered around with no direction.

Some of these underperforming companies are still fighting their way out of the woke paper bag they put themselves into. Other companies are struggling to find footing with newer demographic trends. And some companies have experienced a never ending series of internal missteps.

Regardless of the ‘why,’ the result is that some of the world’s best known brands are on sale right now.

Betting on Brands

It would be foolish to assume that a major household brand name will never disappear. There are plenty of examples of companies that have died a slow death because of their inability to innovate (Kodak, Blockbuster, PanAm, Oldsmobile, etc.).

However, there are other companies that are still alive today that would be nearly impossible to kill. That’s because of the massive catalog of sub-brands that they own. Some of the best examples would be Procter and Gamble ( ) or Unilever ( ). Their sub-brands are a part of everyone’s daily lives and would be very difficult to live with out.

Although not as necessary as the two companies just mentioned, a similar scenario exists in the clothing and shoe industries. There are many large companies that own a suite of world famous brands, like LVMH ( $LVMHF ), that are just too entrenched in society to fail.

That doesn’t mean that these companies won’t go through tough times. Instead, they will go through periods of lackluster results, and then eventually resume growth due to their brand reputation.

One the best examples right now is Nike ( ) . The company seems to have done everything wrong over the past several years, which has sent share prices plummeting to levels not seen since 2014.

It’s entirely possible that Nike’s share price will continue its downward trend for the foreseeable future. But, will the brand disappear altogether? Highly unlikely.

What’s interesting about Nike’s situation is not so much related to the company itself, but what has happened to the broader shoe industry. Whether it’s Nike’s poor performance that has pulled down other companies, or just the general weakness in the consumer cyclical sector itself, the net result is that there are huge opportunities right now.

That’s especially true for legacy shoe brands that have solid financials, reasonable valuations, and are growing into new emerging markets.

Shoes for Status

There is an incredible development that has taken place around the world for the past several decades.

Source: World Bank

Poverty rates have declined significantly and are still projected to improve for many parts of the world. This is of course good for humanity as a whole, but it’s also good for companies selling their products to emerging consumer classes.

When it comes to shoes, there are two quotes that sum up this new consumer class quite well:

"Give a girl the right shoes and she can conquer the world.” - Marilyn Monroe

“A woman with good shoes is never ugly.” - Coco Chanel

Guys are probably less likely to admit the same sentiment, but the general message is clear: One of the best ways to feel better about yourself, and signal to others that you are someone of worth, is to wear the right attire.

Wanting to leave someone with a good last impression, after they’ve inspected you from head to toe, shoes are often times the most expensive item a consumer will splurge on.

We saw this trend play out in real time, just prior to the pandemic, where shoe companies around the world exploded in value. Today, despite continued strong sales, valuations have tumbled.

Here are some of those companies:

• V.F. Corporation ( )

• Steven Madden Ltd ( )

• Columbia Sportswear Co ( )

• Crox Inc ( )

• Wolverine World Wide Inc ( )

These companies, many of which trade at single digit forward multiples, own the shoe brands that consumers continue to purchase on an everyday basis.

But there are two companies which sell premium shoes so unique and well known, that it’s surprising that they have dropped in value along with their lessor priced peers.

Premium Status for a Discount

It’s rare to have a style of anything, in any industry, which survives multiple generations. It’s even more rare to see the sales of these timeless designs increase as time goes on.

For these two companies, which were recently trading for double their current share price, that’s exactly what’s going on…

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He works for one of the biggest power companies in the world, and I have almost no experience in the power industry… So, I thought his call was kind of weird.

He continued, “Our insurance policy paid out on the replacement cost, but we still have to remove all of the damaged panels. I’m thinking we could just take them all off the site and store them somewhere to recycle at a later date, once we figure something out.”

“How many panels are there?” I asked.

“I’m not sure exactly,” he said, “but I think around 100,000. They’re not all damaged, but our company is going to upgrade the entire farm anyway, so they’re all being replaced.”

“100,000!?” I replied, “I don’t know what to do with a 100,000 of anything, let alone 100,000 broken solar panels! Doesn’t your company know how to do this already? This seems like a strange situation for you guys.”

“I know this sounds ridiculous, but we’ve already called a couple of different companies that specialize in this stuff and they have a backlog of almost a year until they can get the panels removed from our site, but we need to start installing the new ones well before that. We’re desperate here and basically willing to pay anyone to get these removed - that’s why I called you. I thought you’d be able to figure something out.”

As tempted as I am to get a crew of people together to go disassemble all of those panels, transport them to some field for storage, and then figure out how to recycle them, I know I’m much better off just investing in the companies that do this already.

But what companies do this!?

And how much money is actually involved here?

The Irony of “Green” Waste

As I went down the rabbit hole of finding solar panel recycling companies, I realized two things:

1. This industry is relatively early and disjointed.

2. This is already a multi-BILLION dollar industry.

Here is what is going on…

The first generation of green energy infrastructure is currently reaching its expiration date. While the transition to renewable energy was designed to benefit the environment, it’s now creating a massive hardware and pollution crisis.

Across the United States, Asia, and Europe:

• Outdated and damaged solar panels are everywhere

• “Blade graveyards” of retired wind turbines are growing

• Millions of first-gen electric vehicle (EV) batteries are sitting in junk yards

• Smart meters are hitting the scrap heap

• And the list goes on…

Obviously this is a huge opportunity for creative individuals and companies.

Decommissioning and recycling green tech has become a mandatory industrial requirement, and that’s even more true as certain metals and chemicals increase in value.

Let’s dive into the different opportunities…

5 Categories of the Clean Energy Trash Crisis & 9 Companies Making the Profits

Wind Turbine Repurposing

Windmill turbine blades are a logistical nightmare because they are made of near-indestructible fiberglass and resin that cannot be melted down. To make things worse, they are extremely difficult to transport, with some blades measuring over 350 feet in length!

Source: WSM

That means it’s very difficult to find a way to profitably dispose, or reuse, these blades. What’s resulted in many parts of the world are massive ‘blade graveyards’ which are now causing even further issues related to neighborhood eyesores and real ecological concerns.

Source: DN

In Texas, it’s become a major issue with a variety of lawsuits surrounding the problem. One location, which estimates the cost to remove the blades “from $13 million to $54 million,” has a a group of people all pointing the finger at each other as to who’s responsible for getting rid of them.

There are a variety of companies that are able to cut the blades for different uses, which include park benches and bridges, but they’re hardly economical. Furthermore, the demand to dispose of the blades far outpaces the demand for unique repurposed equipment.

Some companies, like Renewablade, will bring equipment to these blade graveyards to perform recycling operations on site. They shred and grind up large blades and then use the resulting material as substrate in concrete. While the energy to perform this operation is debated (i.e. is it just easier to leave giant blades in a field in the middle of nowhere?), this company has found a unique niche.

One company that really sticks out is Vestas ( $VWDRY ), which is based in Denmark. Vestas is mostly known for manufacturing and installing large scale wind farms around the world, but they also recycle the same blades that they manufacture.

Source: Vestas

The company’s share price has more than doubled since last year, and could see even more gains if countries around the world shift more towards energy independence (which is likely going to be more of a priority considering out current geopolitical situation).

Rare Earth Recovery from EV Motor & Wind Generator Magnets

One company that highlights the issue with recycling rare earth metals is the US-based company, REEcycle, which just received a funding grant from the US Department of War.

Although the US is home to thousands of recyclers, none of them currently possess a profitable method for recovering rare earth elements (REEs) from magnets. Instead, these components are typically shredded and sold as low-value contaminated scrap metal.

This is obviously a massive issue when you consider that new applications for magnets emerge annually, driving a demand growth rate of over 30% while supply is expected to fall behind.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that there are currently no known substitutes that can match the performance of REEs. Even worse for the US, China’s 97% control over the REEs used in magnets leaves global manufacturers exposed to significant trade war volatility and supply chain risks.

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Of course, in hindsight, those calls have been horrible. Oil and gas have ripped higher than most could have ever imagined while gold has pulled back by ~$1,000/oz since January.

Oil, gas, and gold in 2026 have done the complete opposite of what Goldman Sachs predicted… So far, that is.

As you may remember, I was very bullish about oil and gas last year. I even went to Canada on a fact-finding mission, which I shared here. Every company I mentioned in that last article have seen incredible gains over the past couple of months.

But that’s not what I find most interesting right now. It’s metal miners that are currently in a very curious situation, and the recent volatility in oil is what makes this whole opportunity important today.

Cheap Oil, Expensive Metals, Huge Margins

During last year’s run up in metals prices (especially gold, silver, and platinum), there was an even larger price explosion in the mining companies that extract these metals from the earth.

This was not really a major surprise, but it was a little different than how things have unfolded in the past. Generally speaking, mining companies rally after metal prices surge.

The rational is that investors are waiting to see sustained elevation in metals prices before accumulating mining companies that would see increased margins from those valuable metals.

One of the major reasons why miners rallied with metals is because oil was so cheap. In most mining operations, the cost of diesel can account for 20%-40% of total opex… And even more if diesel prices really skyrocket.

Throughout late 2025 mining investors saw this oil-cheap, metals-expensive scenario as a major buying opportunity. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF ( ) doubled in just six months. Some individual mining companies share prices exploded much, much more than that.

But since the start of the war in Iran, things have drastically changed. And that may be our opportunity.

The Best Gold Miners in the World are CHEAP Right Now

The run up in gold prices, and miners, could be seen as a repricing event rather than a normal market rally. Meaning that the broader market - really the entire world - was not properly valuing gold prior to 2025.

Now, in early 2026, as we’re seeing gold prices and miners pull back from their highs, one has to ask, “Is this rally over?”

Although no one has the answer to that, gold prices are historically correlated to market uncertainty, inflation, and central bank policy - all three of which could be tailwinds for the foreseeable future.

As I mentioned last week, uncertainty is literally at a generational all time high. And when you look at the US’s budget situation, it’s almost impossible to imagine a scenario where a ‘big print’ doesn’t come at some point.

Regardless of all of that, gold miners are incredibly cheap right now and the market is ignoring them as if they were yesterday’s news. Could this be a major opportunity for investors to load up on the world’s best gold producers?

Let’s start looking…

The World’s Largest Gold Miner

I hesitate to even mention this company because of their stock chart. The run up in Newmont Corporation’s ( ) stock price is so extreme my gut tells me to look elsewhere.

But if you look at Newmont’s valuation and financial metrics, it’s hard to paint a bearish picture.

With a forward P/E of less than 9, over $8 billion in cash, and an operating margin of almost 50%, this company is nearly guaranteed to live prosperously far into the future. And that doesn’t even take into account that they are the world’s largest gold miner, both in market cap and ounces of gold produced per year (projected at well over 5 million ounces in 2026).

If I had to pick something that I don’t like about the company, it would only relate to the location of some of its mines. With operations in Canada, Mexico, Suriname, Argentina, Peru, Australia, Papua New Guinea, Ghana, and the U.S., there are a couple of countries I’d prefer to stay away from. But, their portfolio is diversified enough to not cause that much concern.

Newmont isn’t my top pick, but I at least wanted to highlight that even with its unbelievable run up in price, it’s still valued attractively.

The Other 9 Gold Miners

Beyond Newmont, the other major gold miners that round out the top ten largest in the world are also relatively interesting.

• Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd ( )

• Barrick Mining Corp ( )

• Wheaton Precious Metals Corp ( )

• AngloGold Ashanti Plc ( )

• Franco-Nevada Corporation ( )

• Gold Field Ltd ( )

• Kinross Gold Corp ( )

• Pan American Silver Corp ( )

• Royal Gold Inc ( )

And of these nine, only Agnico, Wheaton, Franco-Nevada, and Royal Gold trade with a forward P/E more than 10. The rest are arguably cheap by nearly every metric you can point to.

Despite the top ten gold miners looking very attractive right now, there are others that are even more enticing.

The following four companies make the above look expensive…

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But just because they’re not drinking traditional alcoholic beverages doesn’t mean they aren’t drinking something. There’s a whole new category of drinks that are rapidly becoming more mainstream, and there’s big money being spent.

These new categories are already starting to disrupt the $2 trillion global alcohol market, which is expected to double by the mid-2030’s. With new RTD (ready-to-drink) formulations and a growing global consumer class fueling this growth, there are enormous opportunities for those who can bring the right products to market.

The Pandemic Hangover

Pouring a glass during the pandemic, for many people, was an easy way to deal with staying at home all day with your relatives. Nearly 30% of people in the US reported increased alcohol use during this time.

Now, that trend is reversing course.

American’s alcohol consumption rate is currently at the lowest it’s been in 90 years, and 2026’s data could prove even more shocking (yet to come out).

Source: Gallup

If you search “alcohol” on nearly every social app, you’re much more likely to find posts about people complaining about the bad effects, or celebrating their sobriety (try it - search ‘alcohol’ on and see what you find).

Alcohol companies are feeling the heat from this change in consumer behavior. Even the best investor in the world - Warren Buffet - has started to trim his Constellation Brands ( ) position after his -30% return (so far).

The company’s share price has been hammered over the past couple of years:

And it’s not just Constellation.

It’s Diageo ( ) too:

And Pernod Ricard ( $PDRDF ):

And Brown Forman ( $BF.B ):

And pretty much every major alcohol company you can think of. These are not recent trends, these are trends that have been unfolding since the peak of pandemic debauchery.

Note: As I was writing this, Pernod Ricard (maker of Absolut vodka) and Brown Forman (make of Jack Daniels) announced that they were considering a merger, highlighting the need to consolidate in the struggling market.

So what the heck are people drinking instead?

The New Drinking Class - Near Beer

We don’t need to look any further than what’s been happening in the beer world, as it’s the most popular alcoholic drink in the world by a long shot (about 40% of the total global volume).

The giant in this industry is ABInBev ( ), which owns famous brands like Budweiser, Corona, Michelob, Modelo, Stella Artois, and many more. (*Constellation Brands distributes Corona and Modelo in the US.)

ABInBev’s most recent reporting highlights the growth of their non-alcoholic beer revenue, which is over 8 times the growth of their traditional brands.

Source: ABInBev Investor Presentation

The company’s projected growth of their non-alcoholic beer line-up is projected to triple in the next several years.

Source: ABInBev Investor Presentation

The focus on their non-alcoholic category has appeared to somewhat stabilize their stock price.

Meanwhile, the other beer giant - Molson Coors ( ) - seems to be failing with no signs of stopping.

Interestingly, ABInBev’s most recent company presentation is the only major alcohol company to make an emphasis on this growing part of the market. There are several pages detailing their strategy and even major advertising campaigns, like Corona Cero’s recent sponsorship of the Milan Cortina Olympics.

Molson Coors, which owns Peroni’s non-alcoholic brand, doesn’t even have the words “non-alcoholic” in their annual presentation.

If you review Constellation’s recent report, they barely mention anything about this category, and the same goes with the presentation from Boston Beer Company ( ). Both of these company’s share prices have been crushed.

Are these major brewers completely missing the non-alcoholic boat?

It seems so, especially when you look at the growth of smaller startup brands, like Athletic Brewing.

As recently shared, “Athletic represents 52% of the non-alcoholic craft beer market, which alone isn’t surprising, until [you] put it in the context that they are outselling all 150+ other non-alcoholic craft beers, combined.”

It’s only a matter of time until brands like Athletic Brewing get acquired by major beverage distributors.

And that may happen soon…

The Next Player in Non-Alcoholic Beer - Soda Companies?

Athletic Brewing, which has outsold both Heineken’s and Bud’s non-alcoholic beer, has been on an incredible growth path, and it seems that they aren’t stopping.

Having raised $50 million two years ago, the company now produces over 500,000 barrels a year (that’s well over 80 million cans of beer!).

The company has invested heavily in their operations to continue to scale up their production and they are consistently ranked as one of the fastest growing companies in America.

But there was another fund raising round back in 2022 that investors should take note of. Prior to the $50 million raised in 2024, Athletic Brewing raised a previous $50 million round back in 2022. And guess who that round was led by?

A drink company that doesn’t own any kind of beer brand at all - Keurig Dr Pepper ( ).

Among KDP’s numerous brands, there are only a couple related to alcohol - margarita and bloody mary mixes. They mostly own brands like Dr. Pepper, 7Up, Snapple, Canada Dry, Krispy Kreme Donuts, and numerous other sugary drinks.

The company’s share price has struggled over the past couple years, and has drastically underperformed competitors Coca-Cola ( ) and Pepsi ( ) over the last five years:

in red, in green, and in blue.

Could Keurig Dr. Pepper have its eyes set on the non-alcoholic beer market to change their direction?

Although KDP did invest in Athletic Brewing back in 2022, there were no public announcements about any acquisition rights or intent.

If KDP doesn’t act soon to reverse their trajectory, maybe Coca-Cola or Pepsi will enter the non-alcoholic category? Coca-Cola already has several brands of RTD alcoholic drinks and Pepsi just announced their entrance into the same category.

Whatever happens here, it’s clear that legacy alcohol companies need to change their product offerings for an evolving consumer base.

While we wait, it’s almost certain that we’ll see a wave of non-alcoholic beverage acquisitions over the next couple of years. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see these traditional soda companies enter the game.

I’ll be highlighting another interesting development in the beverage world soon… One that involves Coca-Cola’s monopoly on a secret ingredient that another, soon to IPO company, has cracked.

To the north, the Sierra Nevada region offers Yosemite, Sequoia National Park, Lake Tahoe, and the highest mountain in the contiguous US - Mount Whitney (which I actually ran up by myself with a single water bottle one time).

Almost to the top of Mt Whitney, feeling some vertigo from the altitude.

To the east, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona are all easily accessible and offer more outdoor activities than you can shake a stick at. My favorites in these three states include Sedona, Huntsville, and Lake Mead.

Whether it was hiking, off roading, boating, or just staring at the star-studded skies, this western part of the United States gives the ultimate feeling of freedom and adventure. It’s an addictive feeling that many people invest significant time and money to make part of their lifestyles.

Although I’ve spent plenty of time in the areas mentioned above, there is nowhere else I have spent as much time in as Baja, California. This part of Mexico is extremely remote, offering some of the truest adventure - mixed with some danger - for those really wanting to get out there. It also doesn’t hurt that this stretch of coastline has some of the best hidden surf in the world.

Yes, that’s me as a kid, somewhere in remote Baja during the late 80’s.

Over the years, I’ve owned boats, off road adventure vans, travel trailers, motorcycles, quads, and every accessory you can imagine. If you live in this part of the world, what I’m explaining doesn’t sound crazy at all.

If you’re somewhere else in the US, or some other country, maybe this lifestyle sounds strange.

Maybe you’d be surprised to hear that many people pay just as much for their monthly RV or boat loan as they do for the actual home they live in.

It’s a HUGE industry.

In 2024 alone, there were over 200,000 new RV loans, which totaled more than $11.5 billion dollars in total funded value. -RVIA

And that was just for RV’s. When you look at boats, motorcycles, and all the other outdoor toys, the number explodes to well over a trillion dollars!

You get the point. It’s a massive industry and Americans love to exercise their freedoms, find adventure, bond with their family, and spend money like drunken sailors.

Hell yeah. Merica!

However, the industry today looks a lot different than it did just a couple of years ago. Recreational companies during the pandemic years, especially in the US, saw a boom like they have never seen before.

Hundreds of billions of dollars plowed their way into motorhomes, travel trailers, boats, and every outdoor activity you can think of. Companies raked in record profits and literally ran out of things to sell.

Anyone reading this today probably remembers this time well. But 20 years from now, this story will be hard to comprehend. RV show rooms ran out of inventory to sell. There were no more boats left on dealer’s lots. For a period of time, things were out of stock indefinitely.

Just like any boom bust cycle, we all know what comes next…

Boom, BUST. Wen Next Boom?

It’s the classic supply and demand story that effects every industry you can think of. Once supply surpasses demand, there’s only one thing left to do… Wait until that supply runs down to create demand again.

During this waiting period, disaster can effect even some of the most well known brands. Companies that over extend themselves during boom times struggle to survive with their oversupply.

The exact scenario happened to Joann Fabrics and Crafts last year in 2025. After their boom in sales during the pandemic, they couldn’t adjust fast enough for the eventual drop off - when people stopped sitting at home all day knitting sweaters!

Looking further back in time, you can find dozens of similar situations. Chesapeake Energy during the shale boom, Lehman Brothers during the housing crisis, and Jay Cooke & Company during the railroad boom of the late 1800’s.

But just because major brand name companies go under during these times of turmoil doesn’t mean the industry they’re operating in disappears. In fact, companies that can survive hard times typically come out stronger on the other side.

Investors who can identify these companies that will make it through to brighter times can reap enormous rewards. The challenge in finding the right player who can outlast the rest.

When it comes to the outdoor industry, one of the best examples of ‘will this company survive?’ is Camping World ( ) .

Just four years ago, this company was raking in nearly $7 billion a year and trading at over $40 per share. Today, their revenue is slightly less, but their shares have cratered to less than $6 per share.

Camping World is known as the nation's largest retailer of RV’s, RV accessories, and RV-related services. They were, until recently, led by well known CEO Marcus Lemonis who is still a major shareholder.

With a forward P/E of less than 6, Camping World would look extremely attractive right now… But they have a mountain of debt that looks very concerning to me.

What’s more interesting are the numerous brands that Camping World sells and does business with… But they don’t own. We’re talking about some of the best known recreational brands you can think of, with worldwide recognition.

These companies, which are household names, embody the feeling of adventure, freedom, and family. They’ve been featured in Hollywood movies for nearly a century and their products can maintain value over many decades.

Some antique versions can sell for much more than what they sell for today, all because outdoor enthusiasts value their real world functionality and their longterm symbology.

Today, you can buy these companies for a fraction of what they were previously valued at. And, if you’re like me, you shouldn’t be worried at all about the comeback of these brands.

I’ve picked four separate companies to highlight. Two of these companies own multiple brands that you will be very familiar with. You might of even seen one of them today.

A Catalyst for the Outdoor Recreation Industry?

Before we dive into the many brands and companies I think are on sale right now, it’s important to ask the question: why now?

Just as with any investment thesis, there needs to be some sort of catalyst to change the direction of a beat down industry. Why will the trend change?

We need to look no further than the current geopolitical chaos that is unfolding in the Middle East. While no one knows what will happen in the short term, there are already known effects impacting the medium term.

Drastic increases in oil prices have nearly doubled airfares in many parts of the world. Travel advisories for American citizens are no longer just applicable to the furthest flung destinations.

And that’s not even considering that flying just isn’t fun anymore. From the security line nightmares, to the unruly passenger packed buses in the sky, taking your family on a trip that involves airline travel is a nightmare.

We’ve seen this before. 25 years ago, to be exact. And here’s what happened next:

It doesn’t take a rocket surgeon to understand why this happened. The US has an incredible network of National Parks that include Yellowstone, Glacier, Grand Canyon, Everglades, Grand Teton, Zion, and dozens of other world famous natural wonders.

Then, when you combine the drivability of the entire US and the thousands of amazing cities, it’s obvious why consumers spend, and will continue to spend, so much money on adventures.

There are already signs of catalysts showing up, like this new partnership between Costco and Camping World.

Source: Costco

Let’s dive into the companies best positioned to come out of the outdoor recreational bust cycle, catalyzed by renewed global uncertainty… And take a look at some more recent news that could be a sign that the industry is turning around.

Read more

But really, it was a great trip. We got to swim in the lake, pet some wild deer, and I even burned a hole in my shoe during the evening campfire sessions. My kids got a kick out of that, after I had been warning them not to swing around coal-studded fire pokers.

While we were there I had a friend stop by for lunch who manages a large family office hedge fund based in Charlotte. He’s been successfully managing the fund for almost 20 years and I try to lap up any wise words he shares with me.

Looking out over the lake, out conversation quickly turned to the markets. Silver and platinum had just begin to make their meteoric rise, catching up to gold’s historic run after years of dormancy.

Having a lot of exposure to those metals and miners in my fund I mentioned that I was considering going to cash. My rationale was that I was uncomfortable with the enormous gains I was seeing in such a short amount of time. Of course the gains were great, but what was coming next?

I wasn’t seriously going to go into cash, but the comment I made sparked a broader conversation.

“You know,” Cody, my mentor said, “That’s one of the biggest challenges with investing and managing money for the long term. There’s always a temptation to bank your gains, but sometimes you just end up killing your momentum.

“But the bigger issue is not with killing your momentum,” he continued, “It’s that you always need to have your next move planned before you feel the urge to sell anything. Managing money is just as much about building a long term path as it is about the real time management part. That’s why very few people can do it long term. It’s difficult, exhausting, and sometimes feels impossible.”

Our conversation wondered off in some other direction, but his words have stuck with me - and they are especially relevant today.

Over the past couple of weeks I have been selling off much of my fund, taking profits in anticipation of new deep value plays ahead. This has been a difficult process, especially when I think about that conversation at Lake Norman.

But the data and information I’m looking at are telling me to take caution right now… And that was before the conflict in the Middle East broke out.

Mainstream’s Narratives

Let’s take a quick look at the obvious first: oil and gas.

The correlations of oil spikes and economic recessions are stunning. The only time an oil spike didn’t result in a recession was most recently in 2022. But, as I’ve explained in depth before, that time didn’t count. (Really, it didn’t!)

Source:

I have been looking at similar charts for the past year, which is one of the lessor reasons why I’ve been overweight in oil and gas over the past six months. The main reason was because oil and gas equities were trading at historically low valuations relative to… Everything!

My thought, other than the obvious value part, was that I’d like to be positioned in something that will rally and sing like a canary when trouble is coming. I think we’re there, or at least very close.

What’s interesting with this current oil rally is that it coincides with equity markets that are near all time high valuations. In fact, this past January marked the highest market cap to US GDP ratio in history (Warren Buffett’s favorite metric), at 220%.

Without taking into account a broader historical context, one would think that the current oil spike is purely attributed to the war in Iran. Zooming out, this oil spike would seem unordinary, assuming that all market run-ups proceeding recessions include a last hurrah from dinosaur bones.

Maybe that’s the point: We’re losing sight of the broader cycle and blaming price fluctuations on conveniently timed geopolitical crises. Maybe this is all just the broader master plan, which has been foretold by Mr. Benner:

Continuing on the current oil theme for a moment, the main concerns for market participants relate to how long we’ll have an oil crisis. How long will the Strait be closed?

The data is clear: The longer oil prices stay high, the more devastating the results.

Source: Vanguard

This is especially true for countries outside of the US, and their currencies.

Source: LSEG

This will weigh heavily on investors who have recently been rotating out of expensive US markets and into other parts of the world. As Reuters stated last month:

For the beginning of 2026, it was a great move - emerging markets and certain key US partners have had explosive returns lately. South Korea’s KOSPI saw a nearly 40% gain in the first two months of the year alone.

But, have investors jumped the gun by venturing outside the US too soon? The dollar index has sharply reversed trend as oil has ripped, and increasing energy costs tend to drag down non-US economies dramatically more.

Investors know this and have already been selling off many foreign tech companies in preparation for international consumer weakness. Alibaba ( ), Sea Limited ( ) , Nu Holdings ( ), MercadoLibre ( ), and many more have sold off aggressively since the start of 2026.

These company’s valuations, which are actually very attractive right now, may rise dramatically in the near future if weak consumer spending pulls down revenue generation. This, in turn, will drive those equity prices even lower as investors search for opportunities at fair value and steady growth.

The general consensus right now is that this scenario will happen due to our global oil shock that will lopsidedly effect those company’s target markets… Unless we have a very sharp reversal of what is going on in and around Iran.

What Mainstream is Missing, or at Least Ignoring

Beyond the current oil shock and geopolitical developments - which are still unfolding - there are a variety of data points that have piqued my interest over the past couple of years that relate to certainty.

Specifically that we, as investors and as a society, have an ever declining amount of certainty with nearly everything.

Some of this uncertainty is part of a normal cyclical process, like the election cycle. 2026 is a mid-term election year in the US which naturally brings up a lot of questions for where the country, and as a result much of the world, is headed.

Source: Longview Economics

Market drawdowns during mid-term election years are, simply put, not good. And it makes perfect sense why. Whether it’s new policy that will overturn certain market trends or individual elected officials that could alter global initiatives, the 12 months proceeding the mid-term elections have historically been very volatile.

Since November 3, 2025 - which is the beginning of the 12 months proceeding the 2026 US mid-term elections - the largest (peak-to-trough) drawdown in the S&P 500 has been -7.55%. This is well below the average of -18.2%, and would make it one of the lowest drawdown years ever.

Of course, we still have eight more months until the mid-terms… There’s plenty more time for things to happen!

Once in a Lifetime Uncertainty

The mid-term election uncertainty is just a blip on the radar. It really doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things, especially since we know it’ll happen again, and again, and again.

There’s another, much more important, cyclical uncertainty event that we’re all currently living through. The problem with this one is that it only comes around once in every generation. So, despite it’s cyclical nature, it’s really a one time experience for all involved.

That’s AI.

A quick disclaimer: I am not an AI zealot, nor have I been meaningfully invested in any specific AI company. But I do recognize it’s immediate and potential impact on society.

Not since World War II, has the world lived with the type of uncertainty it has today. I’m cautious to co-mingle historically significant events that included enormous amounts of tragedy and death, but the net result of the scenarios of today and of the past are likely to be very similar: We’ll soon be in a world that is nothing like today, and is currently nearly impossible to forecast accurately.

Of great importance is that no one has lived through an event like we’re currently experiencing. One where the future looks so uncertain that any significant investment of time, money, or energy may be a complete waste.

Again, this is not saying a period of extreme uncertainty hasn’t happened in the past. It just hasn’t happened during our personal lifetimes, which positions us individually in a very unfamiliar situation.

To be sure that my ‘extreme uncertainty’ remarks are not hyperbole, take a look at the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for the United States:

Source: FRED

The elevation of the index ‘uncertainty level’ is just as important as the time this level is sustained at that elevation. As you can see, there is no other time in the past 40 years that even comes close. While data doesn’t exist (or at least I can’t find any) for the time period during WWII, I’m sure a similar index would look the same or even much worse. Regardless, none of us have lived through two of these events, making our current ‘certainty feelings’ incomparable.

Musical Chairs - You Don’t Have to Play

Investing is often a game of musical chairs. When one opportunity disappears, you have to find a new one quickly to keep your capital hard at work. Not deploying your capital - as in, not finding a chair to sit in - means you’re out of the game.

By the logic of many investors, including my mentor, you always need to be in the game. Even long term data shows that staying in the market always pays off.

As Buffett says, “Time in the market beats timing the market.”

But we also know that Berkshire holds the highest percentage of cash, ever, at over 30%, which is nearly $400 billion.

Do as he says? Or do as he does?

Your Permission Slip

Maybe you’ve read this far and thought to yourself, “Was this just some kind of cognitive dissonance exercise so Cody could justify his increased cash position within his fund?”

Perhaps there’s a bit of truth to that. Has there been anything written in world history where an author argues that their point of view is wrong?

Beyond my selfish current perspective, I truly do believe that most market participants have been conditioned to favor risk over caution for far too long. The FOMO, buy-the-dip, fintwit-compare-your-dick-annual-returns have all gone on long enough to seem completely normal.

It’s not.

So here’s your permission to take some caution.

There will always be new opportunities around each corner… But you can’t take action if you haven’t positioned yourself to exploit those opportunities.

All it took was a single run-in with an industrial ammonia plant, and now I can barely even look at that stuff.

It happened during the winter of 2011, when I was pulled from the fire station and shipped off to San Jose, California, for months of haz-mat specialist training. My department needed me certified, as our emergency calls were increasingly related to unknown chemicals and terrorist threats.

Between endless hours spent learning how to identify and handle live chemical agents, explosives, and every other nightmare substance you can imagine, we were constantly loaded onto buses for off-site visits to nearby chemical plants. The training was both extremely technical, but also somewhat simple. Part of the day was spent studying chemistry and specialized equipment handling, while the rest of the day was spent on putting it all to use in the field. 

A couple of months into my training we visited an industrial scale ammonia manufacturing facility. This location used the Haber-Bosch process, which reacts nitrogen from the air with hydrogen at high temperatures and pressures using an iron-based catalyst. But the most important thing I can remember from this day was the smell.

There's an incredible amount of research that links smells to memories. One random sniff of a specific scent can trigger immediate and vivid memories of a specific time and place.

That's what ammonia does to me.

It reminds me of that facility in San Jose. The tanks, pipes, sounds, and incredible amount of infrastructure that I wouldn't be able to rebuild on my own, even if I had an entire lifetime.

What's incredible, beyond the smells, is that there are nearly 15,000 similar chemical factories across the United States owned by thousands of individual companies.  Some of these companies, which are publicly traded, are currently valued for less than their replacement cost.

The market is wrong. And that's your opportunity.

Building Blocks of Society

Ammonia is just one of thousands of different chemicals that are manufactured in the US and around the world. Each of these chemicals rarely makes it to the consumer market on their own. Instead they are usually used as precursors for everything from fertilizers to plastics.

Literally everything you touch or are using in this exact moment was built by combining numerous different chemicals. Every day, the average human touches or consumes at least 100 different kinds.

It's impossible to imagine a future where we are not using chemicals, as they are relied on for our food, clothing, housing, and basic survival. And, as technologies advance, it's certain that we'll become even more dependent.

Despite this reliance, markets are almost completely forgetting about the basic commodities that our lives depend on. Similar to the situation with oil that I recently outlined, I believe there is an enormous opportunity within the chemical industry that is hiding in plain view.

Geopolitical Shock - My Chemical Thesis Changed Overnight

I started to write all of this about a month ago, before the war in Iran started.

Now, the exact chemical companies I was eluding to have seen parabolic moves to the upside. And there might be a lot more to come.

I don't need to give you an overview of what's happening in the world right now. With the Straight of Hormuz effectively closed, petrochemical exports from the Middle East have all but stopped, creating massive price volatility for various materials around the world.

Some things, like gasoline and diesel have seen obvious changes to the upside. Others, like food commodities and certain metals, have seen unbelievable daily swings as the market tries to figure out what is going to happen.

Like I mentioned earlier, specialty chemicals are required to manufacture nearly everything we encounter on a daily basis. And even more importantly, oil and gas are needed to manufacture those specialty chemicals.  

Source: CER

Because oil and gas supplies for international markets have been significantly disrupted, those 15,000 US chemical facilities have become incredibly strategic. That's especially true when you consider that the United States is a net oil and gas exporter. In other words, it's possible that the final products that specialty chemical companies in the US produce could have massive margins when selling their products in to the world market. Cheaper US oil and gas inputs with more expensive specialty chemical outputs.

Of course, not all chemical companies will see benefits. The type and price of their feedstocks will create a highly volatile market with big winners, and losers.

Oil & Gas Alchemy

Ideally, we want to look for companies that manufacture chemicals using US-based feedstocks (which is cheap, abundant natural gas and oil that we produce right here at home). These aren’t the giant commodity giants that swing wildly with every barrel of oil. We’re talking about specialty chemical producers that turn low-cost inputs into high-value products that the world can’t live without.

The war in Iran has created massive volatility, but it might also be making a structural advantage for American manufacturers. Cheaper domestic energy means fatter margins on the output side, especially when global competitors in the Middle East are offline.

It’s simple alchemy: low-cost feedstock in, premium-priced specialty chemicals out, sold into a world that suddenly has a shortage.

But not every name will capture this opportunity. The winners will be the ones with integrated US plants, strong balance sheets, and exposure to end-markets that stay resilient no matter how crazy energy prices get (think agriculture, autos, electronics, and infrastructure). That’s where the real opportunity sits right now.

Specialty Chemicals - A Smarter Bet

The market looks like it might be noticing what I learned smelling ammonia in that California plant back in 2011. Those chemical facilities aren’t basic factories. Instead, they’re national strategic assets. And specialty chemical companies are the ones best positioned to turn that reality into profits.

Unlike pure commodity plays that live and die by the price of a single feedstock, specialties give you pricing power, recurring demand, and the ability to pass through higher costs. The longer we see supply shocks, the more essential they'll become. Your cell phone, the fertilizer on your neighbor’s yard, the coatings on the bridge you drive over every day don't exist without them.

And now, with Middle Eastern supply choked off, US producers can charge global prices while paying domestic energy costs (albeit more expensive than a couple months ago). The parabolic moves we're seeing in the sector in the past couple of weeks probably aren't the top... Those moves are more like a multi-year re-rating. The same kind of re-rating we've seen with precious metals, like platinum (which I had been screaming about). 

Replacement costs for these plants are skyrocketing due to already increasing labor costs and rampant inflation. Despite the massive amount of money it'd take to build new facilities, many specialty chemical companies are trading for single digit P/E ratios and offer healthy dividends. 

Gorgonzola Smells Like Profit?

If any name feels personal to me after that 2011 training, it’s AdvanSix ($ASIX). This company makes nylon-6 resin, caprolactam, phenol, and acetone that go into everything from airbags and carpets to electronics and industrial coatings. They also produce ammonium sulfate fertilizer... The exact nutrient product that’s now in short supply globally because of the disruptions through the Straight of Hormuz.

What makes AdvanSix special is its fully integrated US footprint. They run on cheap domestic natural gas, have a disciplined $30 million annual cost-savings plan already in motion, and have a P/B ratio around 0.7. That is ridiculously cheap for a business whose replacement value keeps climbing everyday the Iranian conflict drags on... And everyday the US goes further into debt, only accelerating the re-emergence of the USD printing press!

The likely fertilizer crisis from the war is a direct tailwind for AdvanSix's agriculture business and their nylon products are tied to autos and construction that aren’t going anywhere. Although, to be fair, if we have an economic downturn, their nylon division could be more a liability. Still, the company is so cheap, I wonder if that's not even something to worry about?

There are dozens of other similar companies that trade in the US and throughout the world that could be in similar situations. Companies like Eastman Chemical ($EMN), Huntsman Corporation ($HUN), and CVR Partners ($UAN) are all worth keeping an eye on. 

All of those companies (and many others) have been operating for the past several years in extremely challenging conditions (especially from competitors that have unfair advantages due to government subsidies). Now as the tide changes, those companies who have remained disciplined for the past decade could see enormous windfalls.

Second Order Profits

In the past, I've often talked about second and third order consequences in investing. Right now, as we see oil prices swing wildly, most investors are trying to scalp off profits from this crazy volatility. But the bigger picture we should all be looking at relates to what these price swings will effect.

Late last year, I explained in detail why oil was a major opportunity. Then, just a couple months ago, I went to Canada to make sure I was investing in the right oil and gas companies.

Now that we've seen oil and gas run up dramatically (as in, the biggest gain in trading history), I'm now already re-allocating into what I think will be next.

The war in Iran only strengthened my original thesis. The 15,000 chemical plants scattered across America aren’t just random pipe and tank facilities anymore. They’re strategic assets in a supply-constrained world, and the smartest specialty chemical companies are sitting right in the middle of the biggest margin expansion we’ve seen in years.

The opportunity is still hiding in plain sight. And there will be even more industries to be impacted very soon...

This blow torch of energy, which is fueled by more than a million cubic feet of natural gas per day, was originally man made... But now it's been forgotten.

I learned about this burning mystery a couple months ago at the Saddledome, home to the appropriately named Calgary Flames. Between puck drops and dome foam - which is beer said to have drug-like effects, due to insanely long beer tap tubes that run throughout the entire stadium to a central keg room - I was told this story.

Supposedly, just recently, a flaring well was rediscovered after decades of being unnoticed to the outside world.

Whether the flame has been burning continuously, or has been reignited by static electricity, it's clear that there is an unbelievable amount of natural gas supplying this one individual hole in the ground.

How this well got there, and why it was forgotten, was explained to me as we watched the hockey game.

Muskeg in Canada

Most people can't comprehend the vast amounts of rural land that exist within the borders of Canada.

In addition to it being the second largest country in the world, it's also one of the least densely populated. 

For perspective, Russia has nearly twice the population density of Canada even though it's landmass is nearly two times bigger. China is just a tiny bit smaller than Canada, but it's population density is 3,250% more. Of Canada's 3.5 million square miles of land, about 12% is peatlands, better known as "muskeg."

This geographical feature can be thought of as an arctic swamp, with the ground surface varying in stability depending on the weather. In the winter, large trucks and heavy equipment can be driven across some areas of frozen muskeg. In the summer, these same areas will swallow a truck whole and even trap wildlife like moose.

Far beneath the surface of Canadian muskeg regions lie enormous amounts of natural resources - mostly oil and gas. The problem is that it's near impossible to get these resources out of the ground.

In addition to heavy equipment being eaten up by the muskeg surface, transporting the oil and gas to its final destination is uneconomical. But that doesn't mean it hasn't been attempted.

If you look at aerial photos of the vast Canadian wilderness, you'll notice that there are thousands of miles of cutlines criss-crossing all over the place.

These manmade cutlines, which seem to have no beginning, end, or consistent pattern, appear to be mysterious crop circles from above. In actuality, these lines have been used for old roads, pipelines, logging, and oil and gas seismic surveys.

These seismic surveys are done by using small explosives, or trucks with vibrating plates, that send sound waves into the earth's surface.

These sound waves then reflect back off of different subterranean rock surfaces and are recorded by a geophone.

Multidimensional images are then created, similar to how an ultrasound can show a baby in a mother's stomach.

Based on the images produced, oil and gas companies can then decide if they should move forward with drilling exploratory wells.

And that, more or less, is how that random remote ball of fire ended up out in the middle of the Canadian muskeg.

That could be the end of the story... But if you're anything like me, all of this just raises more questions. How much of Canada hasn't been explored? Why isn't Canada capturing more of these resources?

And, of course: What opportunities are currently available for investors?

Let's dig in...

Rich Canada, Poor Canada

I don't want to focus too much on what has gone wrong in Canada. This chart sums it up nicely:

Maybe this should be a lesson to never elect someone who is the son of a communist dictator.

Fortunately for Canada, despite past missteps, they are not a resource poor island nation.

Instead, they are absurdly wealthy. When it comes to resources, Canada is ranked as the fourth wealthiest country in the world, and ranks second per capita. Whether it's timber, potash, gold, uranium, or oil and gas, Canada's resources rank near the top globally and add up to tens of trillions of dollars of value.

However, if you look at what makes up Canada's current GDP, you'll see a different story. Industries like social assistance and public administration have grown much larger than the extraction of natural resources. This trend correlates right in line with the stagnation of Canada's economic growth.

Source: CAPP

While this may be an infuriating development for Canadians (who are not on the government's dole), this is a massive opportunity for investors. 

Toonie for a Loonie

About a decade ago, in Northern Alberta, a small oil and gas company built a $450 million SAGD facility. Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) is a technique where you pump steam into the ground to heat up bitumen.

This heated bitumen, which starts to act more like a liquid, eventually seeps through the ground to a lower well which is then pumped to the surface.

Source: CNRL

On paper, this $450 million project was projected to produce billions of dollars of heavy oil. But, the company went bankrupt before production was optimized and the facility got lost in a long legal process.

Fast forward to today and that same SAGD facility was acquired through an auction for a couple million dollars. And if this acquirer can get this facility up and running, they'll be looking at billions of dollars in returns over the coming decades.

We're talking about an investment that will generate a 50,000% return, or much higher if oil goes anywhere above where it is today. (And yes, you can invest in this company.)

The situation that is being set up in the entire oil and gas industry, and especially in Canada, is nothing short of a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. No one is paying attention. 

The Pendulum Swingeth

Just a decade ago, there was a narrative that was widely accepted around the world:

Fossil fuels are terrible for the environment and the entire world is going to do everything possible to never use them again. By 2026, everyone will be driving an electric car, renewable energy sources will power our lives, and we'll never use carbon producing energy sources ever again. 

Governments around the world, especially in western nations, pushed their citizens hard with this agenda.

Huge subsidies for green energy projects and electric vehicles; vilification of gas stoves and traditional oil companies; and worst of all, massive under investment in exploration and infrastructure projects within the traditional fossil fuel sector.

What's coming next, in my opinion, is a dramatic swing back to reality. But this swing is just starting, and there is plenty of opportunity to position yourself now.

The broader energy market is still the least valued sector in the entire stock market, and when you look at the actual market cap, it's even more compelling. As of the beginning of 2026, the total market cap of the entire US energy sector makes up 2.3% of the S&P500. This is lower than the average of 6% over the past decade, and drastically lower than the ~30% during the 1980's. Said simply, energy is ignored and hated.

This is despite oil and gas demand increasing every year while investment into (and within) the industry is declining every year. This will all set up for a spectacular reversal. 

BNPL - Buy Now, Profit Later

The list of interesting energy companies could fill pages. But if you want to stop reading and get your hot stock pick, just buy ExxonMobil.

They are one of the best run companies in the world and are basically another arm of the US government - they're too big to fail. However, if you look a little deeper, especially in certain markets outside of the US, you'll find some oil companies trading for unbelievably low multiples.

Many of these companies, which are priced as if they were dead, are profitable and sitting on incredible amounts of reserves. This is especially true for Canadian oil and gas companies which often have proven reserves of 50 years or more.

That's why I recently visited Alberta and Saskatchewan, driving hundreds of miles a day, in -30F degree weather, dodging moose.

After visiting dozens of different oil and gas facilities and speaking with multiple different operators, I have a new understanding of one of the best value investment opportunities available today.

An Alberta crossing guard.

Before I mention any specific company, I want to make something clear: This is not a get rich quick trade and this may take several years to play out.

But when you contrast this situation's downside risk with today's market valuations and volatility, this stands out as the most compelling opportunity available in early 2026.

In addition to physically touring and viewing the facilities of many Canadian oil and gas companies, I also reviewed the books of dozens of different companies. While not a completely exhaustive list, here are some of the companies that I've taken a hard look at:

• Enbridge Inc.

• Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.

• Suncor Energy Inc.

• TC Energy Corp.

• Imperial Oil Ltd.

• Cenovus Energy Inc.

• Pembina Pipeline Corp.

• Tourmaline Oil Corp.

• Whitecap Resources Inc.

• Keyera Corp.

• Plains All American

• Arc Resources Ltd.

• Ovintiv Inc.

• South Bow Corp.

• Peyto Exploration and Development Corp.

• Tamarack Valley Energy

• Gibson Energy Inc.

• Athabasca Oil Corp.

• Baytex Energy Corp.

• Enerflex Ltd.

• Freehold Royalties

• Paramount Resources Ltd.

• Vermillion Energy Inc.

• Birchcliff Energy Ltd.

• Advantage Energy Ltd.

• Precision Drilling Corp.

• Greenfire Resources

• Surge Energy Inc.

• Saturn Oil and Gas Inc.

• Obsidian Energy Ltd.

• Inplay Oil Corp.

• Falcon Oil and Gas Ltd.

• Petrus Resources Ltd.

• Hemispehere Energy Co.

• Gran Tierra Energy

• Yangarra Resources Ltd.

• Arrow Explorations Corp.

• Lycos Energy Inc.

Amongst this list of names are some companies I expect to grow at least 10x within the next 5 years.

There are also some companies that may go bankrupt, or be acquired for a discount, within the next 12 months.

For me, and for EEF, I am already allocating a large portion towards a select number of positions within this list. And I expect my holdings within this sector to eventually make up a majority of total AUM.

Distracted Sheep

About a month after I returned from Canada, I was fortunate enough to attend the Goldman Sachs energy conference in Aventura.

This conference is a who's who of the broader energy world and included everyone from Chevron's CFO to the US Energy Secretary, Chris Wright. Being in a room with these kinds of people makes you second guess your assumptions about energy in general.

Why would I, as a non-energy expert, have any better forecast or investing ideas than these giants of the energy industry? This feeling was especially true when it came to the attendance for certain presentations.

For example, when Chris Wright took the stage to speak, there were several hundred people in attendance with standing room only (and a full detail of US Secret Service).

Considering the US had captured Maduro just a couple days prior, the audience was especially interested to hear what the Energy Secretary had to say about the future of US (and Venezuelan) energy.

Meanwhile, in the same exact room at a different time, a fireside chat was held with some of Canada's top oil and gas companies. The same room that had been jam packed was now almost completely empty, except for myself and some sorry junior analyst interns taking notes.

Considering that this event wasn't even filmed, I wonder who these Canadian oil executives were even talking to? Just me?

If you were to ignore the valuations, charts, resource reserves, balance sheets, and every other metric of Canadian oil and gas companies, this picture alone would be interesting.

But when you combine all of these together, this opportunity becomes almost impossible to ignore.

For those of you who don’t know much about fantasy football, which was me prior to this year, the risk(s) of losing a league can be extreme. Most leagues are made up of a group of guys who know each other well. In other words, it’s a bunch of guys who relish the idea of seeing their best buddies suffer through humiliating punishments.

The penalty for losing the league I’m in isn’t really embarrassing… it’s just plain painful. Whichever 2-man team loses has to host the entire 24-man league at an all-day pool party at a local hotel casino. But the local casino is not some backwoods bingo parlor… Let’s just say that the losing team could probably buy a used car instead of the tab they’ll have to foot.

As I’ve recently learned, fantasy football has a lot of different variables. There is definitely skill involved when picking your initial team players, but there can also be just plain bad luck. For example, if multiple of your best players get injured in the beginning of the year, you can end up with a team that can barely win a single game.

As you can see from the below image, that is exactly what happened to one of the teams in the league I’m in. Some of the guys on other teams were making jokes that the odds of having a zero win season was probably higher than having a zero loss season.

Beyond the win-loss statistics, I find the ‘moves’ category as the most interesting data point to look at. The moves are the number of trades that a specific team makes throughout the season. You can see that the highest number of moves were made mostly by the losing teams.

This makes sense as these losing teams were panicking towards the end of the season, trying to do anything to avoid that terrifying pool-party bill.

Interestingly, and as you probably assumed, most of the guys in this league are in finance. Some work at major hedge funds, others are in real estate, and some manage their own money. Regardless, they all know about risk and the value of owning high quality assets.

Ironically, these same guys also know that choosing high quality assets means you avoid picking a football team that is made up of a few superstars and a bunch of bench players. The team that can last a whole season is much more important than a team that could face annihilation if just a few of their star players get hurt.

Quality and Quantity

I know that you know where I’m going with this story about fantasy football and how it relates to investing.

But we all need to hear it, especially in today’s markets.

The reality is that our world is moving so fast that we all have a visceral feeling to keep up a breakneck pace. The access and frequency of information feeds we’re exposed creates mountains of overwhelming data.

This data motivates us to make daily changes to adjust to a world that appears to be rapidly shifting. And if we don’t make those changes, we face potentially catastrophic risks.

This is taking place in all ares of life, where public sentiment about various topics have done complete 360’s. One example is how politics in the US have drastically morphed into bizarre scenarios where we see the far left and the far right uniting on several topics. This is akin to cats and dogs finding some middle ground of harmony - something that was unthinkable just a few years ago.

Similar scenarios are developing in the investing world where certain styles of capital allocation, say value investing or options traders, are switching up their strategies. You know that something has changed when Berkshire Hathaway is buying Google and Michael Burry has just given up.

What Season Are We In?

When it comes to fantasy football, we know that the season is coming to an end. The winners and losers will be determined and plans for next year’s season will soon be made.

In the investing world, it’s obvious that we’re in the "AI season.” Beyond the non-stop headlines of how our world will be changed by the implementation of artificial intelligence, financial market valuations are heavily skewed towards tech companies.

There’s no doubt that this AI season is extremely important. Certainly on par with previous transformative technologies like the railroad, electricity, or the internet, and probably the most important technology season we’ve ever experienced.

But where we are within this AI season is undetermined.

Late AI Season Vibes

Is it time to be frantically making financial trades, like that last place fantasy football team, in order to avoid losing? Do these trades mean allocating more towards AI? Or should these trades be diversifying out of AI? Today there are powerful arguments for both sides.

From a valuation perspective, it’s clear that AI associated companies are at, or are at least near, full valuations. That’s assuming that forward growth continues to maintain its current trajectory and doesn’t augment up or down.

But simultaneous to the ever-increasing value of AI companies, the opposite is happening in other sectors of the market - sectors that may end up getting more impacted by AI than the AI companies themselves.

These are the second order impacts of artificial intelligence. The companies that have successfully been providing products and services for decades without the assistance of AI. Manufacturing, healthcare, consumer products, transportation, energy, and more.

Many of these companies are actually declining in value due to investor capital being sucked up by the major tech players. These same companies that are becoming less expensive are in fact the ones that stand to have the biggest long term benefits, and are no where near being properly valued once they successfully integrate this new technology into their operations.

Even more, the fully valued AI companies that continue to release increasingly sophisticated products are leaving the rest of the market behind in development progress. New faster, smarter, better versions of various AI products are being launched faster than the second order customers can implement this new tech.

This, I fear, is what will catalyze the end of this AI season.

Silver Lined Transformation

To avoid any misunderstanding, here is what I am saying: The compute power that is being brought to market is beyond what the market currently needs.

This scenario is a textbook boom-bust example of supply and demand economics.

In this AI season, there have already been booms in multiple different tech companies… they’re still booming. Meanwhile, the busts have been everywhere as seen by the underperformance of nearly the entire market beyond the Mag 7 (or whatever they’re called now).

Companies and industries that have been historically bogged down in process and/or data minutiae are about to be completely transformed for the better. These are the same companies that have been recently underperforming.

Healthcare is one example of an industry set to be drastically changed for the better. Incredibly, some of the best health insurance, biotech, medical device, and medical care facilities are trading for single digit multiples with little-to-no debt and enormous demographic tailwinds.

These second order companies are the players you should have on your team to finish out the season.

That’s why I just returned from Canada. To check out the most obvious second order industry that this AI season has somehow forgotten: energy. More on that very soon.

Considering that 2025 has been the year of lower alcohol consumption and less sex (correlation there?), you'd think leverage would follow a similar trend. You'd be wrong.

Although social debauchery during this period of late-stage-Roman-vibes is amongst us, the majority of irresponsible behavior has mostly shifted to financial markets. The period of sexual promiscuity and substance abuse did have a good run for the past couple of decades, to be fair.

Perhaps today's addiction to leverage and gambling can be blamed on governments and central banks setting bad examples? If the entities responsibly for monetary policy are being reckless, why shouldn't the market participants act in the same way?

Or maybe it's a different problem altogether: Those seeking economic advancement know of no other route, other than taking on increased risk to make exponential gains.

A recent WSJ article titled, "The Economy That’s Great for Parents, Lousy for Their Grown-Up Kids" encompassed the situation quite well. It's near impossible for younger generations to view, let alone achieve, the economic success of their boomer parents...

Unless you gamble and use leverage.

YOLO, Send It

This was the subtopic of a speech I gave at a family office gathering in Dallas recently. The access and variety of new audacious financial products is dizzying.

The menu of items being offered to satiate current 'send it' demands include:

• The introduction of 5x leveraged ETF's, some of which are being launched by the appropriately named company Leverage Shares.

• The rapid growth of prediction markets, a la Polymarket, Kalshi, and various other platforms. My favorite recent bets, I mean predictions, relate to the number of seconds Trump will shake hands with Zelensky, Xi, and other world leaders.

• The offerings across multiple different crypto platforms, which now offer 50x leverage and above. Recently this has led to many billions of dollars being liquidated during relatively low periods of market volatility.

At the risk of stating an obvious prediction, I'll say it anyway: Whatever catalyzes the next financial pullback will almost certainly be traced back to betting, often times with leverage.

But it's not just betting in the obvious sense. Many of today's investments, although not considered explicit bets, are in fact horribly positioned to achieve what their values suggest.

Of the top ten largest publicly traded companies in the world - all currently worth more than $1 trillion, each - none of them have a P/E less than 27. Several of these companies have a P/E over 50, and one has a P/E of nearly 300.

Without explosive earnings growth for many of these companies it would take decades, or even hundreds of years, for earnings to match their price.

This is not to say that companies can't grow into their valuations - price to earnings should not be the only metric to measure a company's potential future value. But this is to question whether the world's largest companies can grow into their valuations, which require decades of explosive earnings growth to justify their current valuation.

How can the world's largest companies maintain aggressive growth for years to come? EACH of those top ten valued companies are currently larger than the GDP of nearly 180 countries.

An investment in a highly valued mega-cap company is no different than a leveraged bet on a low odds gamble. 

But AI is going to eat the world, right? Right!?

It's All Better Than the Dollar?

One recent investment narrative has been the 'debasement trade.' This strategy seemed to go mainstream for the past couple months, as gold and silver were ripping higher. But for anyone who knows about Jekyll Island, that trade has been in play for the past century.

However, the debasement trade isn't just about precious metals. It's about the entire stock market, cryptocurrencies, and anything else you can think of that might outpace the purchasing power of the dollar. (And the euro, yen, peso, etc.)

Did the recent surge in pandemic-era spurred inflation create a scenario where individuals are willing to bet on the future value of anything other than fiat money?

And in placing these bets did risk assets get over-weighted allocation when compared to traditional safe haven assets?

I believe the answer is 'yes' to all of that.

Leverage or Poverty

Is it possible that analyzing company valuations and productivity metrics is missing the forest for the trees?

We're concerned about a couple of trees that have bark beetles instead of watching an arsonist igniting the entire forest.

15 year car loans, 50 year home mortgages, and the end of quantitative tightening should give us some clues. The can is only getting kicked harder and it's likely that leverage will only increase.

Until it can't.

I said that when I suggested that selling your metals for oil may not be a crazy idea. And now, just a week later, I'm seeing more reasons to believe that is true.

Obviously I don't want to get stuck in the recency bias trap. Perhaps my brain is subconsciously ignoring obvious information in favor of focusing on data that supports my bullish outlook on oil?

That could certainly by true, but to be clear I'm not specifically bullish on oil on its own. I'm bullish on oil relative to the value and trend of other stores of wealth.

It's likely that we're a bit early for this entire situation. I'm usually too early to most trends, which has included uranium, silver, psychedelics, longevity, and even bitcoin.

Despite my quasi-self-deprecation about economic forecasts, the Explorer Equity Fund is up double digits this year and I am now pursuing the rotational strategy which I am writing about here.

The Relative Oil Bull

The only industries I'd consider myself an expert in have to do with the ocean - mostly surfing. When it comes to almost all investing sectors, I'm more of a generalist.

Knowing that, I would never try to forecast the specific price, supply, or demand of oil. There are far too many levers - too many variables - for anyone to accurately predict the oil market in the short run.

But I would make a directional bet that oil will be more expensive, in less supply, and in greater demand sometime in the near future.

This directional bet has hardly ever been wrong in any 10 year time period since oil has been a major global commodity. The combination of fiat inflation, ever increasingly difficult oil extraction, and increased demand through energy consumption almost guarantees this continued trend for at least all of our lifetimes.

The same concept, with different value drivers, could be applied to gold, real estate, art, or any other wealth preserving asset that has agreed upon value across multiple generations.

Bitcoin, I would argue, has not yet been agreed upon by multiple generations.

Understanding all of this, it would be implied that there are two ways to invest in oil: hold it forever or trade the multi-year fluctuations. Since I don't have a SPR tank in my backyard, I'll choose the fluctuations strategy.

Oil's Relatives

Last week I talked about how gold has completely decoupled from oil. They've basically divorced for now, until their eventual remarriage in the coming years.

But it's not just the relationship between oil and gold that is interesting. US equities are also screaming something to us right now.

As you can see in the chart above, the S&P500 (orange) has resumed it's upwards trend since Liberation Day.

Meanwhile, oil (blue) has seen a gradual decline. While the above image may not suggest any specific trend or relation, the below chart is shockingly similar.

Prior to the dot com bubble, the S&P500 and oil diverged in a strangely similar way as today's situation. Even more interesting is that both of these diverging scenarios were preceded by a large oil price shock in the decade prior (1990 and 2008).

These two oil shocks, in 1990 and 2008, are noteworthy because this is when large capital expenditures went into oil production and infrastructure. After these periods of large capex deployment, which brings on more supply, little-to-no additional capex is deployed for many years.

Just like any boom-bust industry, low prices are the cure for low prices. The question, based on everything above is: What happened after the divergence of oil and the S&P500 in the years after 2000?

chart sources: MacroTrends

As you can see in this historical chart, the oil rebound was quick to eventually catch up to the S&P500 before both sold off around ~2002. And then, oil went on to annihilate the performance of equities. Of course there are plenty of, 'but that time was different because of X, Y, and Z' explanations. But there are also many similarities, which include:

• The underinvestment in oil/gas

• The over stretching of most equity valuations

• The timeframe in which equity valuations stretched relative to oil price stagnation

• The artificial increase and decrease of central bank rate policy

• The increase in monetary supply

And the most important aspect of all: Humans are irrational, emotional psychopaths who cannot stop chasing shiny objects. Right now, oil is not the shiny object.

The Painful Trade

As I've previously stated, the 'sell everything and go into oil trade' is not to be pursued haphazardly.

Cheap oil seems to be a top priority for the current Trump administration, even if that means getting a once-sanctioned Latin American country back on line (through intimidation or brute force).

But even if a country with some of the world's largest oil reserves reenters the global oil supply pool, there are still sectors within the petroleum industry that are interesting.

The services, pipelines, refineries, transporters, chemicals, and equipment that are vital to turning dinosaur bones into fuel are incredibly inexpensive right now... relative to everything else.      

The reasons are numerous and obvious for those who are happily sitting on their hands, watching their portfolio's rise in value by 2% per day. We all know this won't last forever.

At some point the euphoria will end. Other things will become too cheap, and the rotation will be quick and dramatic.

But we're not there yet.

The mania that longtime metals investors are witnessing is likely to go on for longer than you think. Remember, the normies are just now hearing about gold reaching $4,000 per ounce, even though you've already seen your gold value rise by more than 50% YTD.

For silver, it's been a gain of 60% YTD. And for my favorite, which I have been shouting about for the past several years, platinum is up over 80% YTD.

So, now what?

The Painful Sell

I recently saw a poll online that asked investors about what was the hardest to sell: A stock that is going up or a stock that is going down.

Overwhelmingly, the poll showed that over 80% of investors found it harder to sell an investment that was ascending in value.

It's a strange human nature trait to always want more than you'll ever have. That probably comes from our caveman instinct to stockpile resources because you never know what will happen tomorrow.

When it comes to investing, striving for ever higher gains usually results in a rollercoaster ride of net worth. Ask me how I know... I've ridden the up-down value ride more than I'd care to admit.

Just like many hard lessons in life, it's been a very valuable experience. I've learned that you never lose money selling for a profit. That's not to say that you shouldn't let your winners run. Just that you're far more likely to lose money in life if you don't leave a little meat on the bone for others.

That's what I did this week. I started to trim my metals positions despite anticipating a possibly violent run up in the coming months. Which likely applies to nearly ever mineral that you can pull out of the ground.

But there is something else you can pull out of the ground that is surprisingly cheap.

The Painful Buy

Being a good investor - someone who can consistently make money over a long period of time, and call it their full time job - is extremely difficult.

That's why so few people do it... they can't. It's intellectually and emotionally exhausting.

The even harder challenge of being a full time investor is the feeling of being alone and laughed at. Almost every great trade or investment looks crazy before it works.

With that said, let me present this chart to you:

Source: MacroTrends

When I see data like this, I salivate. I love extremes and outliers. It's what makes the world interesting and investing lucrative. 

Let me first say that the largest spike in the chart doesn't count. That was the pandemic spike, where gold mooned and oil went negative.

It was an anomaly that is somewhat irrelevant to the longer term trend (but if you had actually sold all of your gold to buy as much oil as possible, you would have done quite well).

What you're looking at is the gold to oil ratio. Excluding the pandemic spike I just mentioned, this ratio has never been this extreme. Not even close. It's possible and even probable that this ratio will get even more extreme, which means even greater opportunity.

Sell your precious metals for oil?!

Maybe not all at once. Just make sure you get off the rollercoaster at some point.    

This was back in 2012 in Panama. At the time, I was investing in land in a remote area of the country where the nearest bank branch was an hour from where I was staying.

I have dozens of nightmare stories dealing with banks from around the world. But one afternoon with Miss Piggy tops them all.

She was my 'personal banker' at this bank branch that was in the town of Las Tablas. There was nothing personal about her. She looked exactly like Miss Piggy at about five feet tall and 200 pounds. Her fake eyelashes were so obscenely long that they weighed down her eye lids. Her makeup was so thick that it's possible she was hiding a freshly shaven face. And she was a bitch.

It was if she was intentionally making business difficult for me. She probably was. I was the new gringo in town that represented everything she hated about what was happening in her world.

One afternoon, after meeting with her multiple times to complete a wire transaction, she decided to really screw me over. She emailed me informing me that I have to sign 'one last KYC document' in order to complete the money send.

She Was Setting Me Up

I arrived to the bank and we went back in forth in Spanglish. She finally presented me the document to sign, which I promptly did. Within a second of me lifting the pen off of the paper, she grabbed the document and asked if I was done signing. Yes, I responded.

She quickly grabbed a file that included a copy of my passport and looks up at me. She said, "Lo siento, su firma no coincide con la firma de su pasaporte."

I stared back at her, not understanding what she was actually getting at. "Olvidaste el punto," she said.

I didn't dot the "i" in my last name in my signature, which didn't match my passport signature.

She then proceeded to cancel the wire transfer and put a freeze on my entire bank account. Then, to put the cherry on top, she informed me that I have to physically visit the bank headquarters in Panama City in order to remove the freeze. Which was a six hour drive away.

This story may sound unrealistic and fabricated. But go ask anyone who has banked in Latin America. It's a nightmare to put it politely.

LatAm Banks Suck

Whether it's the drug cartels, US FATCA regulations, corruption, or just ancient technology, the entire banking sector in Latin America is ripe for disruption.

It's not uncommon to see lines of people outside of banks when you visit countries like Colombia, Brazil, or even Mexico. Simple tasks, like getting your paycheck, often require a multi-hour wait in a line to get your money.

The entire banking industry in this region is built upon bureaucracy, paperwork, and in many cases bribery.

And it's not just the inconvenience of it all. It's also bad for the local economies.

When you have inefficient banks, you have inefficient markets. Things like home loans, vehicle loans, and retail investing are not only cumbersome but also extremely expensive.

That's one of the reasons why Latin American real estate tends to be much less expensive than other parts of the world. It's so difficult and costly to get a home loan that it drives real estate prices down.

But this is all changing in real time. The collision of the internet, smart phones, and crypto are about to massively disrupt banking in LatAm and around the world.

Crypto Saves LatAm?

In a recent fund update, I explained how stable coins will massively disrupt the banking system. I also mentioned that financial services in emerging markets are especially well positioned to exploit this situation.

The synopsis is that modern banking solutions will involve peer to peer transactions that use superior technology. This will result in less centralization, lower fees, and generally less friction for commerce.

For the individual this saves time, money, and frustration. For the local economy this unleashes commerce to flow more efficiently.

For traditional banks, especially those that don't embrace this technology, this spells disaster. But for some new finance companies, this is all a huge opportunity... And we can invest in this.

Hidden in Plain Sight

The easiest, and most simple way to get exposure to the rapidly growing world of stable coins is to simply own cryptocurrencies that facilitate these transactions. (The explanation of that, and how I believe the US dollar will see even further adoption into the future, will have to be saved for another day.)

Another way to gain exposure to this LatAm financial disruption trend is to invest in companies that leverage these new technologies. Two that stick out right now are Nu Holdings ($NU) and DLocal ($DLO). 

Both of these companies are aggressively implementing pro-crypto initiatives, and even more importantly, making financial transactions throughout Latin America much easier. That's why they have both been growing at incredible rates and just crushed their most recent earnings reports. As I write this, $NU is up 10% while $DLO is up over 30%, on the day.

What's even more interesting is their TAM and valuation. Both companies, when compared to traditional banks, have barely penetrated their markets. And when you look at their valuation, they are a fraction of what a 'normal fast growing tech company' usually has.

The Crypto Resistance

In the middle of writing this post I had lunch with a good friend of mine who runs a major investment fund. After shooting the shit about how hard it is to be parent we naturally started talking about AI and crypto. Because that's what you talk about when you're a middle aged parent, right?

His take on crypto is that it's a volatile, speculative, mostly worthless asset class. Of course, I tried to argue this for about 30 seconds before giving up. It's tough to debate someone who manages ten figures.

But that's the opportunity for those who see what is going on here.

Most people associate crypto with speculative gamblers who are trading internet money for drugs. 

In reality, major publicly traded financial companies are embracing crypto and crushing their earnings reports.

They're coming for you Miss Piggy!

Bitcoin

December 2024 prediction: "Bitcoin continues to surprise." Welp, this was an easy one. I've been writing about Bitcoin since, well, I started writing about investing. Like many early adopters, I have my own 'lost it all story.' Anyway, it's clear that Bitcoin is here to stay. The real question is how much should you be owning right now (relative to your worth, of course). I don't have that answer. That's because I've found that my number was far too low than what I should have had. Ironically, I've also found that my number was far too high for most people to stomach. Personal situation aside, Bitcoin has certainly continued to surprise. That's mostly because the only thing that has been more surprising than the current ATH of Bitcoin (around $118k, as I write this), is the global addiction fiat currency.

Healthcare

December 2024 prediction: "Healthcare bottoms." Last month I had my third child and was reminded about how broken the US healthcare system is. (Baby is all good, thanks for asking.) I don't fault medical professionals directly; they're mostly incredible people. It's the system that they operate in that is incredibly bureaucratic, confusing, and in need of a top-to-bottom overhaul. This has, perhaps not too surprisingly, driven the valuation of many healthcare companies to incredibly low valuations. In fact, the entire healthcare sector is on track to have the third consecutive year of under performing the S&P500... by ~20% EACH YEAR! No wonder the Wall Street Journal is now calling some health insurers uninvestable:

Source: WSJ

'Something uninvestable?!' This is like music to a contrarian investor's ears. You often hear the most outrageous things about industries - both at their height or bottom - right before they reverse course. Two such examples are UnitedHealth and Centene, both of which I'm taking a serious look at. Centene is especially interesting, as it's currently holding the same amount of cash on its books as the entire company's market cap. That's not to mention they still have growing revenue and a P/E under 5. But hey, who knows. Maybe the healthcare sector is entirely broken and these companies will never come back. Maybe the fall of US health insurance companies is part of the Fourth Turning? Maybe.

U.S. Dollar

December 2024 prediction: "The U.S. dollar weakens." The USD's record decline for the first half of 2025 seems to have surprised everyone. This is despite the fact that the sitting US President literally stated, multiple times, that he wanted to weaken the USD. Most people get up in arms with the thought of a weaker dollar. It's as if the strength of the currency directly correlates to the strength of the nation. In reality, a weaker currency actually makes the US a more competitive trading partner on the world stage. Also, the current decline in the dollar's strength is relative to other currencies. People forget that ALL of the currencies are screwed relative to hard assets (and Bitcoin). As tempted as I am to go on a tangent about the USD and unfolding global currency wars, I'll refrain. It's entirely possible that the DXY will reverse course this year, or slow down in its weakening trend. But remember that this trend is really a distraction from the larger purchasing power trend, which has a course set in stone.

Energy

December 2024 prediction: "Energy becomes a safe haven." Priced in inflation adjusted USD terms, oil seems to be trading almost perfectly. That is, if you believe that the lifeblood of all of our economies shouldn't have any sort of premium priced in.

For the most part, I have not gotten this prediction correct. But I still believe that through the later half of 2025 and into 2026, some investors will begin to move their speculative wins into more secure areas. Energy is still the cheapest sector within US markets with a forward P/E of 12, and has the highest yield of 4.5%. Interesting.

A.I.

December 2024 prediction: "An A.I. play bursts." It's a good thing I didn't short any A.I. companies. Not that I use shorts anyway. Just board shorts. Now, in the middle of 2025, I'm not sure where I stand with this prediction. Maybe A.I. euphoria will continue for a while? I mean, it's perfectly normal that Nvidia's market cap is currently 3.7% of GLOBAL GDP, right?

Emerging Markets

December 2024 prediction: "Certain emerging markets shine." Of the four countries that I specifically mentioned, here is how they have performed YTD:

• Greece ($GREK): +57%

• Brazil ($EWZ): +21%

• UK ($EWU): +18%

• Canada ($EWC): +14%

Yes, I know the UK and Canada are not emerging markets. They are DEmerging markets. Anywho, there's likely a lot more upside in many different countries around the world to come. That's especially true if the dollar continues to weaken and investors realize the value proposition in commodities.

U.S. Markets

December 2024 prediction: "U.S. valuations begin to normalize." I was wrong. Very, very wrong here. U.S. markets are now insanely overvalued. Literally more than they have ever been. Total market cap to GDP ratio is now at 209%. And we're likely going MUCH higher. Soon, we'll begin to hear many more rationalizations for why currently high (and higher) valuations make sense. For example, the market cap to GDP ratio is out of date because many U.S. companies are generating revenue outside of the country, which means that their contribution to the total market cap is accounted for without accounting for the foreign economy's GDP they are selling into. Or something like that...

New Predictions for the Mid-Year

I have more predictions than I have time to write. Three kids is no joke. But, there are two ideas that I think about a lot right now:

1. Mining companies are digging up metals that seem to be increasing in price everyday. At the same time, those companies energy costs (especially diesel) are remaining surprisingly low. Considering that mining company's energy costs are up to 40% of their operating expenses, there may be some incredible earnings coming out over the next couple of quarters.

2. Small and mid cap tech companies in emerging markets are very interesting right now. Two examples are Nu Bank ($NU) and dLocal ($DLO). Their valuations are very reasonable, they have tremendous demographic tailwinds, and their TAM is barely penetrated.

Lastly, did anyone catch my call from what I wrote in June? The silver metals are ripping, and hardly anyone is talking about them.

I made this speech last September, in 2024, at a small event in Washington D.C. The audience was a couple dozen family offices and private investors, who were all looking to grow their wealth while avoiding unnecessary risk.

I spoke for about 40 minutes, covering everything from geopolitics and how they will be affecting global macro trends, to platinum and why it was my number one risk-reward investment idea at the time.

After the presentation, an older man approached me and asked how he could invest in platinum. I said, "Just like I said in the presentation. Just go with the safe play and hold on for a couple years."

"That's it?" he said.

"Yes. That's it," I responded. "Of course, there are all kinds of ways to get fancy with the trade to juice your returns. But, if you want limited downside risk with great upside exposure, just buy what I shared in the presentation."

I just received an email from him earlier this week.

You Can Lead a Horse to Water

Summarized, the email said, 'Hey Cody, I never bought $PPLT when we talked in Washington D.C. Do you think it's too late?'

I didn't respond to him. Not because I didn't want to, but because I don't give individual investment advice. Legally, I can't (actually, I can, but I don't unless it's a client). And honestly, I'm not in the business of giving people hot stock picks.

Sure, I like to talk about investment ideas, specific companies, and big trends. It helps me go through all of the analysis motions and forces me to write out what I'm actually thinking.

But I learned a long time ago that trying to help investors perfectly time the purchase of a specific stock, and when to sell that stock, just never works.

I still get emails to this day about investing opportunities that I wrote about 10 years ago. Sometimes these emails are complaints about certain strategies that are completely out of date and irrelevant. It's as if some people expect an idea that I wrote about in 2017 to be applicable today in 2025.

Today, I mostly write about ideas that are in an uptrend, entering a new thematic, or have some sort of unique value. If I can hit all three at the same time, then that's when I know I've found something special.

Then, I can dive deeper on my own, into specific companies that fit into a trend, theme, and/or value profile. I hope that you are doing the same thing on your own.

If you can't, or just have the time, you should be letting someone else manage your money. Pick people who are unique thinkers, have a great track record, and who you trust. Many times, even if you love investing and have some great ideas, it's really a better idea to let someone else do the trading for you. This is especially true if your full time job is something other than being a full time investor.

Anyway, back to the situation that exists in platinum right now...

Trend, Theme, & Value

Over the years, I've written about platinum many times - most recently in February of this year.  I've gone in depth before, but the gist is that it's totally reasonable for platinum to increase in price by 300% or more.

That's not necessarily a prediction, but just a assumption if the platinum price was to catch up to gold. Platinum, until very recently, has been trading around $1,000/oz while gold is now well over $3,000/oz. Platinum is more rare than gold and has traditionally traded for a higher price than gold. Pretty simple logic here.

Over the past couple of weeks platinum has finally started to wake up. As I write this, the silver metal is now up over 40% YTD and I think there is a lot more room to run. Many platinum miners are up over 100% in just the past couple of months.

But this story isn't just about the investment opportunity in platinum. It's about a bigger trend, a bigger theme, and a search for value.

Super Storm of Change

Earlier this month I discussed the major changes that are unfolding in the US and global economy. The specific investment opportunities are a bit nuanced, but the general trend, theme, and focus on value is crystal clear to me.

I mentioned, "...investors will panic rotate out of highly valued positions into undervalued safe havens. This rotation, which has barely started, is likely to accelerate in terrifying ways for those who chose to ignore the clear warning signs."

Platinum's recent price surge is just one example of this trend unfolding. In that same post, I mentioned numerous other assets that are likely to explode in price in the coming years.

To be clear, this period of change is not necessarily an anomaly. Instead, it's more of a reversion back to the mean.

Adapting to Change

Changing your mind is one of the most difficult things to do. It can also be a career risk. 

My good friend, who is a former US Congressman, used to tell me how angry his constituents would get when he'd flip-flop on a controversial topic. Ordinarily, when you're presented with new information it's very rational to change your opinion. But the outside perception can make you look indecisive or even unprincipled.

Similar to sailing,  investing is a discipline where you should change your mind constantly.

I haven't changed my mind with platinum, yet. But if the current upward price trend continues for too long, I'll certainly be trimming the sails.

Fedspeak Principles

This reminds me of Ray Dalio's book Principles. He explains structures that you can make your brain work around, but nothing really actionable. Maybe that's why Bridgewater has under-performed the market as of lately? (jk, Ray, you're the GOAT of raising money.) Another example is when I wrote about "fedspeak" in June of 2016, nearly a decade ago: "The other day, Yellen made the same speech that she has always given; and that is, we have no idea what she said. Like Bernanke, and especially Greenspan, she has the ability to talk at length about nothing." What I'm getting at is that many predictions, especially if filled with big words and complex theories, can be headline worthy but hardly actionable. If you've read this far, I applaud you. The irony is not lost on me, nor should it be lost by you, that I am writing in such a manner which is identical to what I am complaining about. And that's the beauty of investing, writing, and life. You can be presented with all of the information in the world, explained in a variety of poetic analogies... Then after all of that, you can still screw it all up.

The Canary is Dead

The canary in the coal mine is typically attributed to John Scott Haldane. He discovered that small, warm-blooded animals succumb to carbon monoxide poisoning faster than humans. Meanwhile, the Austrians were likely using those small yellow birds as early as the late 1600's when going under ground. The rationale is quite simple - if the bird in the tiny cage dies, it's time to get out of the mine. Usually killed by carbon monoxide, the death of a canary was just a preview of what was to come for miners if they didn't soon get fresh air. It's tempting to use this saying - canary in a coal mine - often in the investing world. But there are really only a few times when you can look at something and say with certainty, "we're in big trouble." These times almost always relate to macro observations that apply to the broader economy. On their own, equities, real estate, and politics will not cause enormous problems within an economy. Of course it's fun to talk about how the eventual collapse of tech valuations may spread into other parts of the market. Or how a country's president may crater an economy. And when it comes to real estate, people have been talking about crazy prices for thousands of years. But none of those things are as important as the cost of credit.

Two Trend Changes

What's currently unfolding in the US bond market in nothing short of historic. Without knowing anything about financial charting, bonds, or what's going on in today's economy, anyone can spot what is going on in the chart below:

It's crystal clear that the pattern has changed. The previous downward direction, constrained by two trend lines, has broken the top trend line.

Without looking at the reasons (yet) of what has caused this change, it's tempting to want to forecast what comes next. Ignoring what this chart actually represents, even a child would likely guess that this line is headed in an upward direction for the foreseeable future. This is especially true if you look at what happened before the last change in treasury yield direction.

Ignoring the blow off top in treasury yields during the early 1980's, the run up in treasury yields prior and the decline in yields post are nearly identical in time - 35 years for each cycle. This up-down trend, which is about the entire lifespan of a human being, is difficult for the human brain to put into context. It's hard to relate your personal situation to trends that can take over a lifetime to play out. Looking at the historical trend of interest rates over the past several hundred years, the cyclical nature is easy to spot.

Source: Visual Capitalist

Other than the boom-bust credit cycle, which we often see in the mining industry, the historical downward trend in interest rates is notable. It's easy to see that we've bottomed out, leaving us with three options for interest rates:

1. Bounce off the bottom and start their ascent higher

2. Continue to decline and get well into negative rate territory

3. Bounce along a close-to-zero environment

Regardless of which of these three unfold, this is the 'second change' in interest rates that is most important.

Beyond Rising Rates

Where interest rates are headed next is much less important than how we get there. Sure, there are far more arguments for why rates will surge rather than retreat. It really comes down to the reckless spending and blatant disregard for simple budget balancing of nearly every government in the world. While it's tempting to point the finger at politicians from every side of the aisle, the reality is that the people are the ones to blame. Politicians know that if they even whisper about austerity measures, they'll be dragged out of office before the next election. That's why the point of financial resolution will only be achieved through crisis. Unlike historical crises that materialized from financial mismanagement and usually involved armed conflict, the crisis of the future may be one that is hard to feel. In fact, it's likely that we're already in this crisis, and the majority of people being effected can barely feel anything.

The loss of purchasing power of the US dollar has long been a trend that most are familiar with. Artificially manipulating a currency's supply is a hallmark characteristic of a late stage fiat currency. Throw in some central bank interest rate horseplay, and you have the perfect setup for a silent crisis. Rates going higher to account for riskier debtors pales in comparison to what those debtors will do to keep the game going.

The New Silent Crisis Trade

Fueled by cheap money, the US tech industry has absolutely boomed over the past couple of decades. This is most obvious as seen by the performance of the NASDAQ, which has mostly been the recipient of investors looking to park their money in fast growing companies. This trade - trading your fiat currency for shares of tech companies - has been a clear winner. In a low interest rate environment, that sees short-cycled rate gyrations trending lower, speculative non-tangible hyper-scalable assets can perform extremely well. Conversely, industries such as energy and mining, which are almost the exact opposite, have suffered over the past several years. These companies have had their valuations depressed and the substances they produce are at historically low values relative to tech equities. This trend will reverse. And it's already started.

The Gold Canary

As we watch the historic shift in interest rates, we're also seeing gold skyrocket. It's a logical series of events, where investors would rather park their capital in a time tested safe haven asset (gold), rather than see their value inflated away into thin air. But it's not just gold that is set to benefit from this new era of rising interest rates and grotesque government financial management. Nearly every commodity, unleveraged physical asset, and historically undervalued sector is likely to boom in the coming years. That's because investors will panic rotate out of highly valued positions into undervalued safe havens. This rotation, which has barely started, is likely to accelerate in terrifying ways for those who chose to ignore the clear warning signs. Oil, gas, coal, copper, uranium, nickel, foods, and many more building blocks of the modern world will see tremendous demand in the coming future. Investors will crave tangible assets that they feel can weather an inflationary storm. Perhaps one of the most interesting situations is what's unfolding in the gold, silver, and platinum markets. Gold, which has recently broken out to new highs, is typically passed (on a percentage basis) by silver and platinum. Yet, neither of those silver colored metals has caught up yet.

Red = Gold; Blue = Silver; Purple = Platinum

For now, gold is the outlying performer. Is this an anomaly or a clear canary in the coalmine? Perhaps we should look at Bitcoin for clues...  

-Lenin

I don't particularly like quoting Lenin, but I can't think of a better way to explain the past month.

That's both globally and personally.

It's been challenging to keep up with world affairs and market fluctuations. The changes are happening so frequently, and quickly, that it's hard not to get distracted.

Like a lion trying to focus on a dazzle of galloping zebras.

To combat this confusion, myself and two buddies decided to take the opposite approach. Instead of diving into the melee of turmoil, we trekked away from it all.

Starting in the coffee district of Colombia, we hiked for several days (with a professional guide) until we summited one of the highest mountains in the region, at over 17,000'.

Although it wasn't the highest peak I've ever summited, it was certainly one of the most difficult.

The normal switchback trails that climbers usually use to ascend a mountain were nowhere to be seen.

Instead, we were presented with a straight beeline climb up vertical rocky outcroppings, volcanic sand, and a massive glacier face.

Similar to the movie 180 Degrees South, we were "conquerors of the useless."

That is, our end goal was just as meaningless as the start of our adventure.

But I guess it's the journey that counts?

After returning from Colombia to catch up with my family, I then took a quick two day trip to Austin, Texas.

In an underground brewery from the mid-1800's, I hosted a dinner along with Austin Brawner (we publish the weekly Adventure Capitalist podcast / YouTube together).

Despite the freezing Austin temperatures, we were only able to host half of the people who reached out.

Chelsea, who many of you know, was able to record one of my impromptu speeches and transcribe it into an article that you can read here. (TL;DR = US is the best country in the world, but it's expensive AF. Other countries are cheap as sheeet, so take your pick. Long story short, buy BTC.)

After Austin, it was off to Mar-a-Lago.

Do any of you recognize the guy in the middle of the picture below? He's the former CEO of one of Explorer's first very profitable investments.

He invited me to Whitehouse South, so I of course joined.

And, as usual, I was under-dressed... but the secret service still let me in.

Just in case you were wondering what picture is inside the men's bathroom at Mar-a-Lago...

I'm off to Denver tomorrow. That should wrap up my chaotic February.